The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs • Hacker News Board

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#451

Post by peterwwillis » Wed, Apr 27, 2016, 1:08 AM UTC

taneq wrote: post #260

peterwwillis wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

A robot trucker will never do (B). The car put itself there and can presumably get itself out again. More importantly, swerving will lead your truck to jackknife and roll in unpredictable ways and cause who knows how much extra damage. As I've said before about smaller autonomous vehicles, they'll be programmed to always choose the option which is most defensible in court. I will be amazed if we ever see an autonomou…

There are situations where the safest course of action is to accelerate, or maintain speed, while maneuvering. I'm sure we'll get there if the trend of automating individual driving tactics continues.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#452

Post by taneq » Wed, Apr 27, 2016, 1:19 AM UTC

peterwwillis wrote: post #451

taneq wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A robot trucker will never do (B). The car put itself there and can presumably get itself out again. More importantly, swerving will lead your truck to jackknife and roll in unpredictable ways and cause who knows how much extra damage. As I've said before about smaller autonomous vehicles, they'll be programmed to always choose the option which is most defensible in court. I will be amazed if we ever see an autonomou…

There are situations where the safest course of action is to accelerate, or maintain speed, while maneuvering. I'm sure we'll get there if the trend of automating individual driving tactics continues.

"And then, your honour, the truck accelerated and struck a busload of orphans!"

"Case closed."

(I agree but humans are dumb and companies have to cover their asses.)

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#453

Post by mahranch » Wed, Apr 27, 2016, 1:22 AM UTC

My father is a truck driver; He says he's not worried. There's too much other stuff to consider before robots replace him. Like the maintenance that needs to be done during the trip. That can't be automated.

This might be good for short one day jaunts, but multiple day trips cross country are another story entirely.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#454

Post by ars » Wed, Apr 27, 2016, 1:27 AM UTC

sqeaky wrote: post #445

ars wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I previously expected. Like 20 years sooner. It is 100% certain without any doubt whatsoever that this is how it will start. It will start with dedicated interstate roads (or lanes) just for driverless trucks, and then cars. After some time all freeways will be 100% driverless. I do…

> I don't anticipate mixed use (driverless + drivers) ever happening. but it already has?! I mean there are already self driving cars being tested on public roads. Technically not driverless, but almost.

Those cars are not able to handle general purpose driving.

Say you are on a one-way road, and at the bottom of it an ambulance is blocking the road - so you need to back all the way out of the road (or u-turn).

No driverless car today can handle such a situation. There are many more real-world examples. The cars today are just demos, not usable products.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#455

Post by ars » Wed, Apr 27, 2016, 1:34 AM UTC

uncoder0 wrote: post #441

ars wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I previously expected. Like 20 years sooner. It is 100% certain without any doubt whatsoever that this is how it will start. It will start with dedicated interstate roads (or lanes) just for driverless trucks, and then cars. After some time all freeways will be 100% driverless. I do…

Can you elaborate on why you don't see mixed use ever happening? Do you think its regulatory, liability or technological... or maybe some combination of the three?

Because it will never be needed.

The steps go like this:

Driverless car in a dedicated lane. That will be first since it's much easier to build than local driving or mixed long distance. It also covers the most important need (i.e. much less economic reason to make one for local use).

Lots more people see how great that is, so more cars (and trucks) will be rapidly added. That lane will reach capacity, so more lanes will be added.

Within 5 to 10 years driverless long distance will be the norm, and long distance driver cars will be rare. (All the cars will be have mixed modes, with the driver taking over for local streets.)

Every new car will advertise that it includes diverless mode as a feature.

All this will happen so fast there won't be time to perfect a mixed use car.

By the time they do perfect a local driverless car virtually all cars on the market will already have long-distance driverless mode. And the ones that don't will probably get retrofit kits.

So at no point will mixed long distance ever be a thing - by the time the technology is able to do that, there won't be any cars that need it.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#456

Post by ktRolster » Wed, Apr 27, 2016, 2:17 AM UTC

braythwayt wrote: post #279

ktRolster wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Or operate the rigs from thousands of miles away, like drone pilots, with displays showing 360 degrees around the rig and access to all of its sensors? Any driverless technology that requires a constant wireless internet connection is a non-starter.

As I said elsewhere, I do not think a constant wireless connection will be an issue, because I don’t think you’ll be operating the truck remotely the way a hobbyist operates an RC car. The truck will brake when a car, pedestrian, or bicycle cuts it off, and do it better than you could. You are there to route it around traffic jams, talk to the foreman on site, and choose the loading bay. Even if you had a reliable hi…

That's true, it requires a higher level of skill from the AI though.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#457

Post by intended » Wed, Apr 27, 2016, 3:36 AM UTC

sqeaky wrote: post #446

intended wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's partly an effect of being on HN. In non tech circles - the vast majority of the world - people are pretty famous for measuring risks by perception and not statistics. The idea of a robotic truck taking away jobs while also being a risk to life? America would take up mass transit before it buys into that system. Man I can see the headlines and political/ emotional arguments now. Godless SV tech priests rob Amer…

America is not a single unified entity. All it takes is one trucking business to outcompete another for all the trucking companies to follow suit in the following decade. As for individuals, the government might gives tax breaks or ban the things. I think it is most that likely early adopters will use them and brag to everyone how much they save on fuel and airline tickets and how more (work, reading, video games, et…

Think Monsanto, not Ford/GM.

And why would I want more places I can work, at least when I drive I am not expected to be working.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#458

Post by beachstartup » Wed, Apr 27, 2016, 6:33 AM UTC

sqeaky wrote: post #444

beachstartup wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i think this is a likely first application. you can boost schedules and efficiency massively by simply allowing a truck to drive itself to the next waypoint overnight (maybe not even the whole night -- just to the next safe stopping area) when the driver would normally be sleeping. if there's an emergency, simply stop and pull over and alert the driver. this is probably also much easier to sell to existing industry a…

I can't wait for the day that putting 0 human drivers on the road is a PR positive, because no road tripping families are put at risk.

not going to happen in the US. you may not like it, but that has nothing to do with reality.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#459

Post by dspillett » Wed, Apr 27, 2016, 6:49 AM UTC

snuxoll wrote: post #431

dspillett wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, but at least from the PoV of public perception the situation is easier to deal with in a way that allays fear. In your example that one drive is taken off the road. That drive is not a problem, and people assume that the remaining drivers are, for the most part, fine and unlikely to make the same mistake. In the automated truck example you can't take that one driver off the road because barring equipment failure…

Human beings don't have the ability to just attain knowledge and experience by a software updated, autonomous vehicles do. Yes, every autonomous truck on the road may be controlled by the same software exhibiting the same behaviors, but unlike a human they can all automatically be updated with new behaviors and share experiences with each other. This is precisely the goal of IBM's Watson if you will remember, an indi…

I agree. As probably does everyone here.

Now convince the herd that is the general public, who don't really understand the technology, don't have time for a long explanation, and tend to react with instincts and emotions that haven't had much by way of firmware upgrades for quite a few generations.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#460

Post by gambiting » Wed, Apr 27, 2016, 7:02 AM UTC

sqeaky wrote: post #447

gnaritas wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Companies would be insured against a total recall due to software/hardware failure I don't think that's true at all. Recalls are a manufactures problem, the local trucking company is just going to have normal auto insurance just as with his human drivers.

When a recall does happen how do the trucking companies keep on trucking? I mean surely this happens now, how do they solve this problem?

I guess airline companies are insured against loss of profit in case their airplanes get recalled and they have to do without. And probably the cost of renting airplanes from other companies so that they can keep on going.