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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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391–400 of 471 posts

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#391
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

'Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time...'

I think you mean that truckers FEEL like they deal with that dilemma all the time. If they ACTUALLY dealt with an A or B dilemma, they would routinely end up in situation A or B: running over a passenger car or flipping the truck. It happens SOMETIMES, but infrequently.

In reality the situations where other drivers do something stupid are probably much better handled by the self-driving truck, which doesn't panic, doesn't feel a fight-or-flight response, doesn't overstate the gravity of the situation... doesn't do anything except assess what to do next without emotion.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#392

I'm starting to think we should tax the value made out of automation. I feel like it's the only way to redistribute the wealth accumulated by the few actors that will control these giant automated industries.

Let's not kill an industry before it even begins.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"What about the roads themselves? I'm curious how an autonomous truck will handle a snow-covered highway, fog, potholes, and tight corners caused by narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc." It won't; at least, it won't need to handle narrow roads, bad parking, snow banks, etc. The autonomous truck need not drive the whole route that a human driver does now. Drive down the Ohio Turnpike and you will see numerous p…

Would it still be an advanced net if you had humans in the trucks as a 'backup', with the autonomous driving doing 90% of the 'boring' driving down the highways? Humans would still drive the last mile (ha!). Would that be significant safer and more efficient to make it worthwhile? If you limit autonomous driving to the main freight routes on the highway, I can see self driving vehicles happening a lot sooner than I p…

Add the severe driver shortage that has been taking place in the tucking industry for about 7 years plus and it will happen even sooner.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#394

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really, competition will eventually drive down the prices.

People say things like this, then we end up with the cable (TV/Internet) industry.

Cable companies are universally granted local monopolies in the US; by definition they are an example of what happens when you artificially limit competition.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#395
I've always thought trucks should have their own lanes due to very different acceleration and lane changing patterns from other automobiles. I wonder if the emergence of driverless vehicles ends up leading to a separation of driverless and driver roads/lanes. At least early on. It could assuage safety concerns of mixing both modes, and one can imagine efficiency gains from chaining driverless vehicles in 'trains' on their own lane.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any evidence that a technology with billions of dollars in potential would not be used if it was only 99.99% ready? I feel like lots of dangerous stuff has been deployed when it was nowhere near 99% in the past, and I'm not sure why this technology would be any different. People talk about it like it's a lot different, but how safe are regular cars? Nuclear power? Coal power? Honestly I don't even know what…

It would definitely be deployed at 99% ready because that would likely mean "safer than people". The quote talks about how we are at 90% but going from 99.99% to 100% for deployment would need a mathematical revolution. Really going from 90% to 99% will also need a revolution. At least on the order of deep learning.

Safer than people is not 99%. The accident rate is around 74 per 100 million miles (and fatalities is 1.13).

It's unclear exactly how to turn that into a percentage, but no matter how you do it it's way way more than 99%.

Say an accident takes 5 minutes, and people drive 30 miles/hour. Then that works out to 99.999% for humans. If you use the numbers for fatalities then it's 99.99999%.

That's not even in the same ballpark as 99%.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#397

I keep saying this over and over and over to my more "the market will figure it out" co-workers and I just can't seem to get through to them. This is literally more than 20% unemployment in less than 5 years. Society will either crumble or completely change how it views unemployment.

> This is literally more than 20% unemployment in less than 5 years First of all - what? It's not 20%, nor is it happening in 5 years... Neither of those numbers make any sense. Secondly, accuracy aside, the same arguments were made all through the 70s, 80s, and 90s about manufacturing automation. And guess what, those jobs are gone now, but society didn't crumble. It's not like his is all brand new people - it's hap…

>... those jobs are gone now, but society didn't crumble.

Society where I live in California didn't, but the stories I read about Detroit and Baltimore make me wonder how society is doing in large parts of the country where manufacturing used to be a major employer.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#398
24 hour trucking is already possible. You just need two drivers. My sister was a 24 hour long haul trucker for a while, running routes from Virginia to Seattle nonstop with a partner driver. They'd work nonstop for three weeks, then take a week or two break, which is actually a pretty good schedule in some ways.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#399

> Trucking represents a considerable portion of the cost of all the goods we buy, so consumers everywhere will experience this change as lower prices and higher standards of living. No, consumers won't. The savings will be funneled directly to shareholders.

Fuel is half the price it was two years ago. So we should already be enjoying massive savings, right?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#400

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

>>And then when you get to your destination, manoeuvring a 50' trailer is no easy task, even for a trained driver like my dad.

My first airplane journey was fascinating. As some one who doesn't know how to drive a car, and is struggling trying to learn it, I was spell bound when I watched the pilot taxi the huge airplane to the terminal.

Well airplanes aren't even regular shaped and size of the human taxi'ing the plane to the plane is very small. Yet the pilot could precision park to the terminal.

The fact is no matter how hard it seems, if you've been doing it day in and out, it looks like just another job at the end.

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