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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#191

Post by BufordTJustice »

thedogeye wrote: post #45
vermontdevil wrote: post #9

I think it's better to put more of the trucking freight back on rail. But that requires a lot of investment in various secondary rail lines. That means public money. Something I don't see happening for a long time.

Why do you think that? What if the trucks were electric?

Trucks are very hard on the roadbed, especially given that road damage scales proportionally to the fourth power of the axle weight. For the same reason we don't ship all of our goods in tons of little cars, but use trucks with GVWR potentially many times greater, similar efficiency is pretty simple with trains in that they require less operators and prime movers to move more goods in the same amount of time.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#192

Post by pm24601 »

djrogers wrote: post #143
pm24601 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All of this comes at cost to human workers - but it's inevitable. I disagree. Specifically, you are assuming that the human workers will quietly accept their fate.

Not quietly, no, but it's no less inevitable. History is full of jobs that have been automated away, and few of those historical examples offered a more obvious and large payoff.

I do notice you are avoiding my central point:

With railroads, there is not an economic incentive for automation.

One commentator suggested that driverless trucks would have to be separated from human drivers. Railroads have this thing called "tracks"

Another suggested the wonderful advantage of a driverless truck not getting into accidents. Railroads have an excellent safety record.

Driverless trucks as a way to reduce the need to spend money on humans. Railroads need only 2 humans for 100+ unit train that is equivalent to 300 or so trucks. ( 1 railcar = 3 truckloads https://www.chrobinson.com/en/us/Logistics/Intermodal-Rail/C... )

Trains are 10x more ( http://grist.org/article/freight-trains-19th-century-technol... ) more energy efficient than trucks.

What is the economic model to use driverless trucks? Sure the trucking industry will push for this. But the railroad industry has so many natural advantages.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#193

Post by danmaz74 »

mschuster91 wrote: post #19
thescriptkiddie wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

> For long haul, you can just use trains. RoLa (Rollende Landstraße) as we call this in Germany, or just transporting the flatbed carriages, requires a SHITLOAD of manual work, unlike containers where you don't even need people on the locos in the yard anymore. Not to mention that long-haul-via-rail is only viable in the US... in Europe, it virtually doesn't exist anymore. It just isn't profitable due to various exte…

> RoLa (Rollende Landstraße) as we call this in Germany, or just transporting the flatbed carriages, requires a SHITLOAD of manual work, unlike containers where you don't even need people on the locos in the yard anymore.

Isn't using containers much more efficient anyway, instead of moving the whole truck?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#194

Post by pm24601 »

maccard wrote: post #189
pm24601 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google cars are going no more than 25 mph and are lightweight. Different thing all together. Here is the big thing - the driverless truck has to operate in a uncontrolled environment that can result in human death. Who is the responsible party? The trucking company? The software developer? Additionally we are talking situations where a computer can't have any reaction interruptions for hours and hours. No reboots. No…

I'm walking down a busy road with traffic passing me at ~30mph at the moment. Anecdotally, the last 4 cars have had one person in the car who has either been texting on a mobile phone, applying makeup, eating breakfast, and playing with the radio. Do you think the reaction time of the guy who's texting his boss saying he's late would be faster or slower than the driverless car that was in a long garbage collection, i…

Yeap. And if one of them hits you, they are liable. How many software developers want to be held criminally responsible for deaths?

Some times we get so fascinated by technology, that we forget that the technology has to fit within human society.

Remember the whole concept of product/market fit - if the market rejects the product: it doesn't matter how "cool" the technology is.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#195

Post by ajuc »

Wouldn't it be much easier to assure security on roads if every car had to have 50 USD short-range (500 m is enough) radio transmitter that sends its velocity and position (from GPS).

It's obviously possible techincaly (see cheap tablets), and from law POV (see seat belts requirement).

It would be useful (the device can have cheap black and white lcd screen and show "radar"-like view with cars ahead and behind).

It would also increase security even if there are no automated cars (overtaking tall cars will be much easier for one thing). Of course - if some cars don't use it - it's actaully decreasing security, so there needs to be adjustment period.

And when these things are in place - automated cars are much easier problem.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#196

Post by pm24601 »

patrickg_zill wrote: post #21
thescriptkiddie wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

Actually you can't, for a lot of goods. Reason is that the railroad won't give you the same guarantees and trackability a truck will. Example: you have refrigerated items (let's say a shipment of fresh fruit) that has to be maintained at a constant temperature and you want it delivered to your customer on Thursday when you ship Sunday night. Truck: not a problem, and you can easily get updates all the time from dispa…

Sorry to burst your bubble here -- but the railroads were doing exactly that since the days of refrigeration via blocks of ice. ( http://californiabountiful.com/features/article.aspx?arID=56... )

> Now retired after more than 30 years in the produce business, Wolf noted that farmers began growing iceberg lettuce in the region just prior to the 1930s. The demand for the hearty lettuce variety soon took off through the use of refrigerated rail cars.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#197

Post by kbart »

UVB-76 wrote: post #159
dv_dt wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that an automated truck will follow a certain safety framework, it's interesting to contemplate if there might be automated truck pirates. Jam mobile connectivity, run the truck off the road by herding it with other vehicles, then break in and run-away with the goods or the entire trailer for that matter.

This is one of many reasons we will still need humans present, if only in a guard capacity.

If a cargo was valuable enough, a driver's life would only be a collateral damage. Furthermore, all (non military or security) personnel training programs I've encountered specifically highlights, that in a case of armed robbery, do not resist, obey and do not escalate conflict in any other manner while trying to call help unnoticed.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#198

Post by mantas »

JonoW wrote: post #173
peterwwillis wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

The article mentions driverless trucks would drive slower, at 45mph, wouldn't this make a key difference in this scenario, eg a much shorter breaking distance. Also, a driverless vehicle has one option a manned vehicle doesn't - self destruction to save life, eg drive off the side of the road and crash (assuming it could determine that no one was there)

That'd be a disaster on single-lane roads. Even with human trucks and their help (signalling if road is clear, driving on the shoulder when possible etc), it sucks to overtake them. If trucks were limited to 70km/h, there'd be much more need to overtake them. Which would either cause either traffic congestion or more drivers doing reckless things. Let alone that non-driverless trucks/buses/campers/etc would be stuck behind them forever.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#199

Post by kbart »

SixSigma wrote: post #139
peterwwillis wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

or, apply full brakes, apply full audible warning and swerve at the last possible moment, while calling the emergency services to put them on alert. But how common is your scenario ? I consider this a more critical failure : The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration suspects that as many as 28% of commercial truck drivers have sleep apnea. The Sleep Medicine Division surmised that nearly a 250,000, persons fall…

For this reason alone I would trust autonomic trucks much more than human driven counterpart. I must admit, I've drifted away few times as well while driving passenger car over long, boring highways..

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#200

Post by mantas »

ajuc wrote: post #195

Wouldn't it be much easier to assure security on roads if every car had to have 50 USD short-range (500 m is enough) radio transmitter that sends its velocity and position (from GPS). It's obviously possible techincaly (see cheap tablets), and from law POV (see seat belts requirement). It would be useful (the device can have cheap black and white lcd screen and show "radar"-like view with cars ahead and behind). It w…

Would it require to have a backup device? Would cyclists and pedestrians have to have it as well?
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