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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#181

Post by xenadu02 »

braythwayt wrote: post #73
michaelbuckbee wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was my thought as well. That a new 'tugboat captain' or 'harbor pilot' type role emerges for last mile driving.

But here’s the question: Do these ‘last mile’ drivers sit in the cab? Or operate the rigs from thousands of miles away, like drone pilots, with displays showing 360 degrees around the rig and access to all of its sensors? Last mile driving may not look anything like truck driving.

You could make massive gains just by not having to stop and rest drivers. I suspect the drivers will be on-board but able to relax or sleep until getting close to the destination. That lets all trucks drive 24hr straight through to their destinations.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#182

Post by ktRolster »

braythwayt wrote: post #73
michaelbuckbee wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was my thought as well. That a new 'tugboat captain' or 'harbor pilot' type role emerges for last mile driving.

But here’s the question: Do these ‘last mile’ drivers sit in the cab? Or operate the rigs from thousands of miles away, like drone pilots, with displays showing 360 degrees around the rig and access to all of its sensors? Last mile driving may not look anything like truck driving.

>Or operate the rigs from thousands of miles away, like drone pilots, with displays showing 360 degrees around the rig and access to all of its sensors?

Any driverless technology that requires a constant wireless internet connection is a non-starter.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#183

Post by emp_zealoth »

peterwwillis wrote: post #104
ctvo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

Robot chooses A) and also immediately uploads footage to the DA Idiot that caused roadwreck is sued for that (I'm pretty sure there are specific laws against causing massive damage. In my country at least, there are.)

Soon, people learn that they are responsible for acting, well, responsibly.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#184

Post by vintermann »

patates wrote: post #156
quanticle wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If that's the case, then why aren't cargo ships already automated to this extent? It seems like automating a container vessel would be even easier - there are far fewer things to run into on the water (even in a busy port) than there are on a busy highway.

I would bet because the wage paid is insignificant compared to maintenance of the vessel and that the maritime laws would be further complicating such a scenario.

Not so much maintenance as capital costs, I think. Giant cargo vessels can't be replaced as often as trucks either. But drone ships are certainly coming, it's a very trendy topic in the trade publications. I'd give it 10 years.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#185

Post by mung »

peterwwillis wrote: post #150
SixSigma wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

or, apply full brakes, apply full audible warning and swerve at the last possible moment, while calling the emergency services to put them on alert. But how common is your scenario ? I consider this a more critical failure : The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration suspects that as many as 28% of commercial truck drivers have sleep apnea. The Sleep Medicine Division surmised that nearly a 250,000, persons fall…

> But how common is your scenario ? Anecdotally, the 3 truckers i've known have complained about it. I now drive very carefully around trucks. Swerving at the last minute is a non-option because it means turning sharply, which jackknifes the truck. Turning while braking is worse because turning while either braking or accelerating compromises steering. You can try to brake until the last moment and then take off the…

Of course, being automated allows for much more advanced braking schemes.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#186

Post by mung »

UVB-76 wrote: post #159
dv_dt wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given that an automated truck will follow a certain safety framework, it's interesting to contemplate if there might be automated truck pirates. Jam mobile connectivity, run the truck off the road by herding it with other vehicles, then break in and run-away with the goods or the entire trailer for that matter.

This is one of many reasons we will still need humans present, if only in a guard capacity.

this can be deferred to local security companies with nation-wide contracts.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#187

Post by andygates »

thedogeye wrote: post #42
kilroy123 wrote: post #40

My friend is some kind of logistics manager for a trucking company. He literally manages dozens of trucks and truck drivers daily. He says, it's so ridiculous, how far away we are from automatting truck driving. There is a lot of manual work for loading and off-loading rigs. Plus there is driving in every single possible driving condition possible, around the world. He said, he could see an auto-pilot system being in…

Did he see that driverless trucks made a delivery in Europe last week?

That was platooning with a lead driver.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#188

Post by doyoulikeworms »

tyingq wrote: post #109
thedogeye wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much did you pay for the super computer in your hand?

How much did UPS/Fedex shipping prices go down when fuel prices dropped? (hint, they went up).

what about their other costs?

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#189

Post by maccard »

pm24601 wrote: post #126
JulianMorrison wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure they're more complicated for computers ? Because some stuff that strains humans, like 360° attention and complicated sequential activities, computers can do with ease. Also computers are not limited to having senses inside the cab. Load shifting? BigDog is an example of computers figuring how to balance a shifting load. Google cars handle being cut off (most of the time).

Google cars are going no more than 25 mph and are lightweight. Different thing all together. Here is the big thing - the driverless truck has to operate in a uncontrolled environment that can result in human death. Who is the responsible party? The trucking company? The software developer? Additionally we are talking situations where a computer can't have any reaction interruptions for hours and hours. No reboots. No…

I'm walking down a busy road with traffic passing me at ~30mph at the moment. Anecdotally, the last 4 cars have had one person in the car who has either been texting on a mobile phone, applying makeup, eating breakfast, and playing with the radio. Do you think the reaction time of the guy who's texting his boss saying he's late would be faster or slower than the driverless car that was in a long garbage collection, if I were to step in front of him?

You do have a point on liability, and I don't have an answer better than a centralised pool of money that everyone pays in or out of.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#190

Post by BufordTJustice »

ericd wrote: post #89
WalterBright wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't have one. I just recall reading years ago that the fatigue damage cause by trucks loaded to the legal weight limit was 9,000 times that of a passenger car (and trucks are often overloaded). The flexing of the roadbed causes it to crumble away after a while. You can feel the roadbed go down when a truck passes. The main damage passenger cars do is erosion from snow tires.

Yeah, damage to roads goes up superlinearly with weight.

I think it's to the fourth power with axle weight.
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