Live data from Hacker News

Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

freakonomics.com

121–130 of 133 posts

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#121
post #117
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You say "no" in response to my comment concerning socialism preventing two people from entering an agreement--then why can't I hire someone for $4 an hour, if that's what they and I agree upon? Socialism itself doesn't prevent you from hiring someone for $4 an hour. Current laws (which may be based on socialist principles) do that. You could argue that, in a future with a universal basic income, we wouldn't need a m…

>A failing but necessary industry is one ripe for being regulated by a socialist government. I would love to hear the historical case you have in mind. In my study of history the case which government lays out for their new intervention is based on twisted truths, exaggerations and most likely downright lies. This has been the case in anti-trust, social security, medicaid and many more instances. The idea that an ent…

>In my study of history the case which government lays out for their new intervention is based on twisted truths, exaggerations and most likely downright lies. This has been the case in anti-trust, social security, medicaid and many more instances.

Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinions. I guess we fundamentally disagree on how historical events should be interpreted.

>The idea that an entire industry is failing to meet consumer demands is economically absurd. Why would competition not arise to match consumer demands?

Industries don't exist to meet demands, they exist to create profit. Meeting an external demand can create profit, but so can unlawful or immoral business practices. This is the very reason why people seek an organized entity (like a government) to negotiate on their behalf. Pristine economic theories work nicely in a bubble, but we don't live in one.

>Are you one of the lucky 20% (perhaps less) of the population which your candidate of choice won the election? Did that candidate match all of your ideas, or was he or she the least-rotten of the bunch? Is that candidate really "advocating on [your] behalf" when they get into power? What of the other 80% of the population who were unhappy with the outcome of an election? How do you measure these "aggregate outcomes"? Is the $4 trillion (on the books) spending of the US government all necessary to accomplish these improved aggregates?

Do I agree with everything that the US government does? No. Would I rather be a US citizen than one of any other country? Yes. Do I think this country has the potential to move itself in the right direction? Yes.

>I'm not sure I would say "pointless". I may not agree with what is going on, but certainly some people are getting rich with the trillions of dollars being squandered. Some people are benefiting by regulations which strangle out their competition. Some people feel good about having their morals forced upon others. Some people like having positions of dominion and power which they exercise violence over others. Some people make a pretty penny from blowing up people in far off lands. I may think there's a better way, but I wouldn't say its pointless.

In what world is it good socialist policy to squander trillions of dollars? Obviously things could be improved. Yes, some regulation is bad, just look at the anti-competitive practices Comcast has lobbied for over the years (and make no mistake, those policies are only in place because of Comcast's lobbying). Regulation is not the same thing as socialism. Socialism can impose regulation to promote certain principles, sure, but that doesn't mean all regulation is created to further social goals.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#122

Why wouldn't all standard of living benefits of basic income get eliminated immediately by all relevant costs rising to soak it up? This happens every single time the poor get any sort of money. In poor neighborhoods the rents cost as much as people are able to pay, no more, no less. Do you know when most rental deposits are collected? Around the tax return season. If suddenly the poor had some money to spare - the r…

It depends on the elasticity of the commodity. Going to one of those contrived economics examples:

let's say you have 5 people who have the following amount available to spend on TVs:

$100

$80

$50

$30

$10

And you have 5 TVs to sell. What price do you sell them for? If you price them at $100, you sell 1x$100 and make $100

If you price them at $80, you sell 2x$80 and make $160

If you price them at $50, you sell 3x$50 and make $150

At this point you see a trend - you should price your TVs at $80 and just eat the loss on the three TVs you don't sell.

So now we have a society in with 40% of people have a TV and 60% don't. As a government, you want 100% of people to have a TV, so you intervene to try to fix it.

First, you double everyone's income.

That doesn't change anything. The new price for TVs is $160 and two people get TVs.

So instead, you give everyone $50.

If you price them at $150, you sell 1x$150 and make $150

If you price them at $130, you sell 2x$130 and make $260

If you price them at $100, you sell 3x$100 and make $300

If you price them at $80, you sell 4x$80 and make $320

If you price them at $60, you sell 5x$60 and make $300

So now 80% of society gets a TV. Better! Sure, you haven't eliminated inequality, but you've reduced it.

But let's say it isn't TVs, it's houses. And you have three of them, not five.

Everyone needs a house. So you'll bid as much money as you have to to beat the next guy trying to get one. So the first house will go for $80 to the person with $100. The next house will go for $50 to the person with $80 The final house will go for $30 to the person with $50.

If you double everyone's income? Nothing changes. We've already seen that doubling people's income does nothing.

If you give everyone an extra $50? The distribution ends up the same, except everyone pays an extra $50 for each house.

TL;DR: inelastic goods like real estate will just go up in price. Elastic goods like electronics will, but less than the amount of the wealth transfer. The most important thing is to change the wealth ratio rather than the gross amount.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#123
post #48

It was interesting that they used dogs as an example of a population that had its work taken away by technological progress, yet did not provide the obvious counter example (horses).

Horses also had their work taken away by technological progress.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#124
post #121
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A failing but necessary industry is one ripe for being regulated by a socialist government. I would love to hear the historical case you have in mind. In my study of history the case which government lays out for their new intervention is based on twisted truths, exaggerations and most likely downright lies. This has been the case in anti-trust, social security, medicaid and many more instances. The idea that an ent…

>In my study of history the case which government lays out for their new intervention is based on twisted truths, exaggerations and most likely downright lies. This has been the case in anti-trust, social security, medicaid and many more instances. Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinions. I guess we fundamentally disagree on how historical events should be interpreted. >The idea that an entire industry is f…

>Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinions. I guess we fundamentally disagree on how historical events should be interpreted.

As I said previously, I would love to hear the historical case you have in mind. Let's examine the facts and discuss further. Saying we disagree in the interpretation of historical events without even discussing any is a cop out and intellectually disingenuous.

>Industries don't exist to meet demands, they exist to create profit. Meeting an external demand can create profit, but so can unlawful or immoral business practices.

In a free (and freeish) market, businesses cannot survive without meeting customers' demands. It's possible a business owner could have a myriad of motivations, but the fact remains they must at least be meeting customer demands. But this goes back to the comment above. Please provide an example of an industry that was at least relatively laissez faire and failed to meet customer demands.

>This is the very reason why people seek an organized entity (like a government) to negotiate on their behalf.

I know very few people who view the government as an organization which negotiates on their behalf. In fact I can safely say I have never before heard anyone describe government in such a manner.

>Pristine economic theories work nicely in a bubble, but we don't live in one.

Unfortunately socialism doesn't even work in the bubble (it has been debunked thoroughly by economists such as F. A. Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, and Murray Rothbard among others), let alone the real world. Thankfully capitalism has an excellent track record and we know empirically of its efficacy to improve the standard of living and increase human cooperation.

>In what world is it good socialist policy to squander trillions of dollars?

I have no idea what "good socialist policy" is as it seems like an oxymoron to me, but I think it's only fair that those who had their money forcefully taken from them determine whether the money is being squandered.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#125
post #37

It seems to me that the question of how to finance a UBI is probably the largest stumbling block. Of course it could be done through taxes but a lot of people have legitimate concerns about government taxation. For taxation to work you need a coercive government and many of us are very aware of the downsides of such an entity. Of course taxation isn't the only reason we have a coercive government there's also the war…

You have to fund it via land value tax or rentiers will take up all the slack. Get rid of income tax, tax land. We want to stop rentiers, we don't want to stop workers. Right now it's back to front, by design.

Can you explain how land value tax relates to current UK council tax? Is CT just a really poorly implemented LVT and could LVT be implemented by modifying the existing CT system?

I advocate for LVT in the abstract but get stuck on explaining implementation in a relatable way.

p.s. really appreciate your persistent posting on this :)

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#126
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree on the points of exchange for public good. Even poor people are loath to see others getting by on "freebies". But a progressive system where BI depends on need (age, for example) and commensurate effort (volunteering, helping take care of elderly, studying, training, etc.) I think is doable and will need to be worked out as more jobs get automated and people are left out of the economy either due to mismatch…

The systems we have today are the compromise results of such a "progressive system" where system income depends on need (age [Social Security, Medicare], circumstance [Unemployment, Social Security Disability, SNAP, Welfare], etc) and based on "commensurate effort" (previous wages, complicated forms, layers and layers of proofs, ...). Have you had to file for Unemployment "Insurance" yet, in your lifetime? It's a com…

I see room for a compromise in order to make it more sellable.

Base it on simple things, age, legal status, and positive community involvement. We still need to make people feel useful rather than resentful and entitled. It's an entitlement but some minimum effort should be shown that one is at least trying to contribute to their society.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#127
post #124
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In my study of history the case which government lays out for their new intervention is based on twisted truths, exaggerations and most likely downright lies. This has been the case in anti-trust, social security, medicaid and many more instances. Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinions. I guess we fundamentally disagree on how historical events should be interpreted. >The idea that an entire industry is f…

>Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinions. I guess we fundamentally disagree on how historical events should be interpreted. As I said previously, I would love to hear the historical case you have in mind. Let's examine the facts and discuss further. Saying we disagree in the interpretation of historical events without even discussing any is a cop out and intellectually disingenuous. >Industries don't exist…

>As I said previously, I would love to hear the historical case you have in mind. Let's examine the facts and discuss further. Saying we disagree in the interpretation of historical events without even discussing any is a cop out and intellectually disingenuous.

We would only be discussing our subjective interpretations of facts. I don't think that's intellectually disingenuous. For example, how could you argue with a Holocaust-denier who believes that all records were forged? You could be pointing to the exact same things but interpreting them differently. I don't think we share a common ground, and there nothing I could say to you or you could say to me to change the way we emphasize or de-emphasize historical facts and their relation to one another.

>In a free (and freeish) market, businesses cannot survive without meeting customers' demands. It's possible a business owner could have a myriad of motivations, but the fact remains they must at least be meeting customer demands. But this goes back to the comment above. Please provide an example of an industry that was at least relatively laissez faire and failed to meet customer demands.

What is a "free" market? I think this is the important question. My core belief is that actors in an economy will act according to game theory. Is a free market one with no rules? If so, what is to stop someone from lying, cheating, or stealing? Is a free market a system with a few basic principles? If so, who serves as judge to determine if rules were broken? How do you ensure this judge acts in the best interest of the market rather than their own best interest? What is the punishment for breaking rules? In my view, businesses do have a drive to create value. However, businesses also have a drive to make a cheap buck where they can at someone else's expense. I think having a government act on behalf of consumers is necessary to keep rent-seeking motives in check and let value-creation stay at the forefront. I simply do not believe that large, powerful, independent businesses will act with my best interests at heart.

>I know very few people who view the government as an organization which negotiates on their behalf. In fact I can safely say I have never before heard anyone describe government in such a manner.

Ideally, I do think that is what a government should be. I'm very happy that my government has orchestrated clean water, built power lines, roads, and bridges, and ensured basic standards for food quality. In essence, the government is a sort of corporation of which I received a single share upon birth. The ultimate morality of being forced into purchasing that share is debatable, but pragmatically, at least for now, I'm happy with it.

>Unfortunately socialism doesn't even work in the bubble (it has been debunked thoroughly by economists such as F. A. Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, and Murray Rothbard among others), let alone the real world. Thankfully capitalism has an excellent track record and we know empirically of its efficacy to improve the standard of living and increase human cooperation.

I think you carry a lot of baggage when you use the term socialism. I'm not talking full-scale USSR planned economies. The US has been dabbling in socialist policies since the Great Depression. That track record you attribute to capitalism I attribute to socialism (or I guess social capitalism). I'm not advocating for full government control of the economy. I do think the government can be an actor in an economy for net benefit, and I think certain powers should be ensured.

>I have no idea what "good socialist policy" is as it seems like an oxymoron to me, but I think it's only fair that those who had their money forcefully taken from them determine whether the money is being squandered.

Let's call it social capitalism, then. You seem to have a problem with the word socialism itself.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#128
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The systems we have today are the compromise results of such a "progressive system" where system income depends on need (age [Social Security, Medicare], circumstance [Unemployment, Social Security Disability, SNAP, Welfare], etc) and based on "commensurate effort" (previous wages, complicated forms, layers and layers of proofs, ...). Have you had to file for Unemployment "Insurance" yet, in your lifetime? It's a com…

I see room for a compromise in order to make it more sellable. Base it on simple things, age, legal status, and positive community involvement. We still need to make people feel useful rather than resentful and entitled. It's an entitlement but some minimum effort should be shown that one is at least trying to contribute to their society.

«I see room for a compromise in order to make it more sellable.»

What we have is the compromise. The point of (Universal) Basic Income is that the compromise isn't good enough and we can do better, by going simpler, removing the human moral judgments and encompassing everybody equally.

This is definitely a case where compromise destroys the integrity of the concept. It should be "sellable" enough on its own merits to avoid breaking it.

«We still need to make people feel useful rather than resentful and entitled.»

There are so many assumptions here to unpack. People will feel resentful to get "free" money from their government? People "need" to feel useful? Plus there is obvious so much hate overloaded in people's usage of the words "entitled" and "entitlement" that there's probably a half-dozen PhD theses we could point to.

Do you have moral complaints about Basic Income? Basic Income isn't about policing what people do with it. That's part of the simplicity that makes Basic Income more interesting than the compromises and the other alternatives. Does it concern you what other people would do with their money if they had just a little bit more? Basic Income intentionally doesn't make judgments, that's a part of its beauty. It's a sort of freedom: here's money, do what you will with it.

Yes, there are probably simple things that would still make sense to do, but mostly it should just be "Are you a US Citizen? Do you pay US income taxes?" Curtailing it further than that starts to conflate money and morality in weird ways.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#129
post #127
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Well, you are certainly entitled to your opinions. I guess we fundamentally disagree on how historical events should be interpreted. As I said previously, I would love to hear the historical case you have in mind. Let's examine the facts and discuss further. Saying we disagree in the interpretation of historical events without even discussing any is a cop out and intellectually disingenuous. >Industries don't exist…

>As I said previously, I would love to hear the historical case you have in mind. Let's examine the facts and discuss further. Saying we disagree in the interpretation of historical events without even discussing any is a cop out and intellectually disingenuous. We would only be discussing our subjective interpretations of facts. I don't think that's intellectually disingenuous. For example, how could you argue with…

>What is a "free" market? I think this is the important question. My core belief is that actors in an economy will act according to game theory. Is a free market one with no rules? If so, what is to stop someone from lying, cheating, or stealing? Is a free market a system with a few basic principles?

While clearly defining a free market is an important discussion, I think it out of the scope of this discussion. The direction for the thread was to explore your claim that government regulation in a market is initially introduced to mend a "failing industry". The only way to verify such a claim would be to explore some historical case. As you refuse to identify such a case, defining the term "free market" is a diversion.

>In essence, the government is a sort of corporation of which I received a single share upon birth.

>I simply do not believe that large, powerful, independent businesses will act with my best interests at heart.

Seems contradictory, don't you think? I find it ironic that you believe private businesses would do you personal harm, but you have no similar concerns for government. It is government not businesses who are responsible for hundreds of millions of deaths in the past century alone. It is government not businesses which hold a monopoly on violence and perform their every act, even the ones you deem noble, through the threat of violence.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#130
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see room for a compromise in order to make it more sellable. Base it on simple things, age, legal status, and positive community involvement. We still need to make people feel useful rather than resentful and entitled. It's an entitlement but some minimum effort should be shown that one is at least trying to contribute to their society.

«I see room for a compromise in order to make it more sellable.» What we have is the compromise. The point of (Universal) Basic Income is that the compromise isn't good enough and we can do better, by going simpler, removing the human moral judgments and encompassing everybody equally. This is definitely a case where compromise destroys the integrity of the concept. It should be "sellable" enough on its own merits to…

Personally, no, other than citizenship and age (a one year old does not need the same subsidy/income as an adult). The rest, I think would make it more acceptable to the rest of working people who put in more than they take out in BI.
Post reply on HN