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Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

freakonomics.com

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Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#111
post #20

Negative. Those with money will fight like hell to keep from giving it up. However if by some chance/miracle a guaranteed income is ever instituted, it will become a political football, as politicians and advocacy groups seek to continuously push it higher and higher. Instead of a money handout, I would rather support money in exchange for public works and service. I don't believe handouts without some kind of exchan…

I agree on the points of exchange for public good. Even poor people are loath to see others getting by on "freebies". But a progressive system where BI depends on need (age, for example) and commensurate effort (volunteering, helping take care of elderly, studying, training, etc.) I think is doable and will need to be worked out as more jobs get automated and people are left out of the economy either due to mismatch…

A Basic Income based on need is called a welfare system, and requires gatekeepers to determine neediness. We have various such systems in the US.

Any time you here someone say "basic income", they mean a guaranteed, zero qualifications beyond citizenship and possibly adulthood, income. It is meant as a replacement for many aspects of the welfare system.

It is true, since humans are bad at making many financial/health/welfare decisions, that not all public welfare costs are a good fit for replacement with a BI. But things like food stamps, disability income and section 8 housing all do appear to be good fits.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#112
post #105
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>But the argument that socialism is against human nature is obviously wrong, as humans are social animals. Socialism is anti-social (or were you confused by it having the word "social" in it?). Socialism says two people do not have the right to come to an agreement on the exchange of property and labor. What is social about that? How is that in harmony with human nature? >There were enough articles recently for insta…

>Socialism says two people do not have the right to come to an agreement on the exchange of property and labor. What is social about that? How is that in harmony with human nature? No, socialism says focusing on group cooperation optimizes aggregate wealth. Socialism says that somewhere between a completely shared economy and a completely private economy is a sweet spot where you get the best of both worlds. You're v…

>No, socialism says focusing on group cooperation optimizes aggregate wealth. Socialism says that somewhere between a completely shared economy and a completely private economy is a sweet spot where you get the best of both worlds.

Socialism may claim that but the results are very anti-social as demonstrated in my previous comment. You say "no" in response to my comment concerning socialism preventing two people from entering an agreement--then why can't I hire someone for $4 an hour, if that's what they and I agree upon? That's just one of dozens of possible scenarios I could mention which socialism prohibits.

>You're very focused on this "socialism is anti-social" stance

Yes, as that was the idea I was refuting from the parent comment.

>but not only does it not make any intuitive sense, it is not backed up by any data. Show me a modern, prosperous state that absolutely abstains from social programs or promoting collective interest.

Does the absence of a modern state which meets this criteria prove the point? Hardly. It does not follow. We need not compare state to state, as socialist programs are typically applied to individual sectors of an economy. Take any sector of the modern economy which is heavily affected by socialist programs and you will find a sector which is scraping by. You will find corruption and you will find greater public outrage. Healthcare being a prime example. Ironically progressives blame the short comings in these sectors on capitalism.

>The very idea of a state is a threat to (completely) free exchange of property and labor.

I agree. I would like to see more thought, more experiment and more results to see how little of a state might be accomplished.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#113
post #110
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just around my home I could easily hire a few people to do various jobs at any given time, but it is not cheap enough for me to justify doing that. Automation comes at a cost, and often humans laborers can do the job cheaper. The thing that will be pushing people out of a job is minimum wage, not the automation which often results in reaction to minimum wage.

You seem to be unaware that there is a minimum income required to survive. If one cannot get that income from their job(s), then they must get it from charity, welfare, theft, or some other means, or they must move to someplace where the minimum survival income is lower, or they must die.

What makes you think I'm unaware? What's wrong with the charity option?

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#114
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just around my home I could easily hire a few people to do various jobs at any given time, but it is not cheap enough for me to justify doing that. Automation comes at a cost, and often humans laborers can do the job cheaper. The thing that will be pushing people out of a job is minimum wage, not the automation which often results in reaction to minimum wage.

Great! Then you should be strongly in favor of a basic income, because part of the logical construction of BI is the abolition of minimum wage. Minimum wage is a collective agreement to avoid people working below subsistence wages. Once subsistence is guaranteed covered by BI, there will be much less need for low end wage distortions. Admittedly, many wealthy people seem to prefer having subsistence not guaranteed, i…

>Great! Then you should be strongly in favor of a basic income, because part of the logical construction of BI is the abolition of minimum wage.

Nope.

>Minimum wage is a collective agreement to avoid people working below subsistence wages. Once subsistence is guaranteed covered by BI, there will be much less need for low end wage distortions.

No, minimum wage is a political stunt which results unemployment. That is why you now see the same union lobbyists who pushed for the $15 minimum wage now lobbying for exemptions for their unions.

>Admittedly, many wealthy people seem to prefer having subsistence not guaranteed, it makes negotiating for low wage low skill servants much easier.

Are you suggesting that wealthy people are ok if all of their workers died? Seems pretty ridiculous. If I am opposed to someone stealing my wallet, does that mean I am in favor of their kids starving to death?

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#115
post #112
post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Socialism says two people do not have the right to come to an agreement on the exchange of property and labor. What is social about that? How is that in harmony with human nature? No, socialism says focusing on group cooperation optimizes aggregate wealth. Socialism says that somewhere between a completely shared economy and a completely private economy is a sweet spot where you get the best of both worlds. You're v…

>No, socialism says focusing on group cooperation optimizes aggregate wealth. Socialism says that somewhere between a completely shared economy and a completely private economy is a sweet spot where you get the best of both worlds. Socialism may claim that but the results are very anti-social as demonstrated in my previous comment. You say "no" in response to my comment concerning socialism preventing two people from…

>You say "no" in response to my comment concerning socialism preventing two people from entering an agreement--then why can't I hire someone for $4 an hour, if that's what they and I agree upon?

Socialism itself doesn't prevent you from hiring someone for $4 an hour. Current laws (which may be based on socialist principles) do that. You could argue that, in a future with a universal basic income, we wouldn't need a minimum wage, as people could survive on even no wage. Would this be more or less socialist than things as they are today?

>Does the absence of a modern state which meets this criteria prove the point? Hardly. It does not follow.

Prove beyond a shadow of a doubt? Of course not. Prove within reasonable heuristics? Depends on your definition of "reasonable". Our definitions are clearly different.

>Take any sector of the modern economy which is heavily affected by socialist programs and you will find a sector which is scraping by.

A failing but necessary industry is one ripe for being regulated by a socialist government. Perhaps it is not the socialist regulation that caused the failure, but the failure of the industry to meet public need which drives regulation. You may find this reversal (or un-reversal) of cause and effect ironic, but it really comes down to the classic correlation vs causation question. Without better research, we really cannot know.

For now, I am comfortable with the concept of a government advocating on my behalf for the purposes of improving aggregate outcomes. Certainly, governments may fail or do poorly, but I do not think it is a pointless effort. It sounds like you disagree.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#116
I've wondered if a "guaranteed basic goods" systems might make sense, either as an alternative to a basic income system, or as a way to slowly transition to one.

The idea would be that as we figure out how to automate things, we make those things essentially public goods. We end up with a mixed economy, where we have one class of goods that are produced in publicly owned automated factories and do not cost the consumer money, and another class of goods that work like they do now where private parties produce them and sell them for money which the buyers earn through paid employment.

For instance, consider vegetables. We're close to being able to make almost fully automated farms for many crops, and we're close to fully automating most of the shipping from farm to market. The idea would be that as we achieve this, the government buys up these farms (or starts its own farms), and everyone gets a daily allotment of the produce from these farms. Some meat production is also highly automated, and so we should be able to at some point in the not too distant future add meat to this.

At that point everyone who has a place to cook has their basic food requirements taken care of.

How about transportation? Automobile manufacture is very automated. At some point that too will be almost completely automated. Combine that with self-driving cars, and we should be able to have a publicly owned nationwide fleet of self-driving taxis. Ideally these would be electric cars, powered by publicly owned solar, wind, hydroelectric, or nuclear systems.

As automation gets more and more advanced, more and more goods can be added to the "made by publicly owned automated factories" list and made available to all.

When enough stuff is automated and turned into public goods to allow someone to survive reasonably without a job as long as they have housing, we can start making publicly owned housing in places where land and construction costs are cheap. That will be away from the big cities, but for people who decide to not work that would be fine, as it would for people who can work remotely. So we should be able to reach a point where everyone can have a basic apartment or small house and the necessities to survive reasonably there, without an income.

Will we ever be able to automate everything except creative intellectual work? I don't think so, at least not for a long time. I think that would require the development of something like the robots from Asimov's stories--robots that have human form factors (so that they can work anywhere that a human can work) and human level intelligence, and I don't think we'll be there anytime in the next 100 years.

A nice thing about this approach is that it can be done with minimal disruption. With basic income you have to give everyone enough to reasonably survive right from the start. With basic goods, you go item by item, industry by industry.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#117
post #115
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>No, socialism says focusing on group cooperation optimizes aggregate wealth. Socialism says that somewhere between a completely shared economy and a completely private economy is a sweet spot where you get the best of both worlds. Socialism may claim that but the results are very anti-social as demonstrated in my previous comment. You say "no" in response to my comment concerning socialism preventing two people from…

>You say "no" in response to my comment concerning socialism preventing two people from entering an agreement--then why can't I hire someone for $4 an hour, if that's what they and I agree upon? Socialism itself doesn't prevent you from hiring someone for $4 an hour. Current laws (which may be based on socialist principles) do that. You could argue that, in a future with a universal basic income, we wouldn't need a m…

>A failing but necessary industry is one ripe for being regulated by a socialist government.

I would love to hear the historical case you have in mind. In my study of history the case which government lays out for their new intervention is based on twisted truths, exaggerations and most likely downright lies. This has been the case in anti-trust, social security, medicaid and many more instances.

The idea that an entire industry is failing to meet consumer demands is economically absurd. Why would competition not arise to match consumer demands?

>For now, I am comfortable with the concept of a government advocating on my behalf for the purposes of improving aggregate outcomes.

Are you one of the lucky 20% (perhaps less) of the population which your candidate of choice won the election? Did that candidate match all of your ideas, or was he or she the least-rotten of the bunch? Is that candidate really "advocating on [your] behalf" when they get into power? What of the other 80% of the population who were unhappy with the outcome of an election? How do you measure these "aggregate outcomes"? Is the $4 trillion (on the books) spending of the US government all necessary to accomplish these improved aggregates?

>Certainly, governments may fail or do poorly, but I do not think it is a pointless effort. It sounds like you disagree.

I'm not sure I would say "pointless". I may not agree with what is going on, but certainly some people are getting rich with the trillions of dollars being squandered. Some people are benefiting by regulations which strangle out their competition. Some people feel good about having their morals forced upon others. Some people like having positions of dominion and power which they exercise violence over others. Some people make a pretty penny from blowing up people in far off lands. I may think there's a better way, but I wouldn't say its pointless.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#118
post #80
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they are not forced to take whatever they can get to eat.

So how many of these higher paying jobs exist? And now who is completing for them? Or are the low paying jobs going to suddenly start paying more? I'd say they have less leverage.

The lower paying get jobs will have to start paying more.

If, all of a sudden I don't need your $4 per hour job, I quit. If everyone else also doesn't need it they quit.

Then you as an employer need to pay more to get people to work for you, or use self driving mopeds to deliver the pizzas.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#120
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You wouldn't? What would you be doing? If I had basic income that pays for everyday expenses, I'd be free to learn something (robotics/automation/mechanical engineering) and find a job in that industry...

I'd practice cooking, read a lot, and do some coursera/udacity/whatever courses, and see my friends and family more. I may work as I do now, but only a day or two a week. That would only be if I got very, very bored though.

Hmm, well I'm quite sure you would apply that knowledge somewhere eventually, after resting for a while maybe...
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