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Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

freakonomics.com

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Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#71

Post by beachstartup »

dota_fanatic wrote: post #29

Disclaimer: I don't know anything about anything. Some parents can put 850k in a account for their child when it's born that gets invested, say in the American economy (grows by say 7% over an average, long time period), which compounds until later in life, and when they grow up, they can access it. With good financial responsibility, this child won't have to work a day in their lives and can live off the returns. Wh…

you're describing a sovereign wealth fund. the only thing that requires is 1. 300 million million dollars and 2. buy-in from the electorate.

out of those two ludicrous requirements, i'm not sure which one is more of a challenge.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#72

Post by dageshi »

BurningFrog wrote: post #18
tonyedgecombe wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Politically I don't see it being any different to progressive taxes which many (most?) countries already implement. Practically I suspect it will need to be quite low to avoid all sorts of distortions.

I haven't listened to the episode, but the Basic Income that makes sense is one that replaces all/most welfare programs. The existing programs are very distorting already, often giving poor people 100%+ marginal taxes. Sure, Basic Income would be distorting, but far less than that. It should also save a lot of money since it requires almost no people to administer. This is also the biggest problem with instituting it…

I don't believe it will replace all/most welfare programs. I think it will replace some and then politicians will be elected to top it up for select groups. "Fairness" will come into play, "I am disadvantaged compared to this other person, I should get more, it's only Fair". Plus regional top ups, cost of living in different places is higher than others, I expect there will be a demand for a top up based on cost of living on top of basic BI, again that'll need to be enforced and administered.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#73

Post by f_allwein »

ancap wrote: post #57
f_allwein wrote: post #17

It is important to consider this as more and more white-collar jobs may become redundant due to automation [e.g. 1]. Moreover, it would be interesting to see what becomes of today's jobs if there were an basic income. E.g. what percentage of jobs would disappear and not be missed? How many people would continue to work at their current job? [1] http://books.simonandschuster.com/The-Industries-of-the-Futu...

Why? We have had "automation" in some form or another for many millennia and we have not needed a "basic income". Every technological advancement from the invention of hand tools, to creating complex machines can be loosely classified as "automation" and in every case the standard of living has increased and resources were then allocated to some more productive means. Why is today's automation any different?

The general argument (made e.g,. in the Alec Ross book) is that there will not be enough paid work left as more and more jobs are automated. So paying a basic income would become necessary to ensure people's survival (or prevent social unrest).

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#74

Post by theseatoms »

VincentEvans wrote: post #51
swsieber wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think what the parent was referring to was that a universal increase of money supply basically leads to inflation. I think. I'd welcome any clarification to my attempted summary.

Yes, but i don't know whether what i observer is your standard "typical economic inflation" or some very particular phenomenon targeting the poor. A disabled relative of mine is considering signing with Uber to lease their car (did you know Uber leases?) to make some money. After paying for gas and insurance - he is literally working slave wage. I thought this is relevant somehow.

If the prices of goods and services rise, and their quality does not change, then yes that's inflation. But the quality of goods/services delivered should go up. (That's the point.)

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#75

Post by branchless »

maxerickson wrote: post #54
branchless wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand the thinking here. Rents are set by what the market can bear. Make more money available and the price will increase.

rayiner mentions mobility in a cousin comment. In a healthy housing market, rents should roughly match the price of new construction (plus some profit) rather than being set just by the existing supply.

Rents have nothing to do with the price of construction.

Prices are set by available credit for purchase and by wages less other essentials for rent.

I'm afraid this isn't simply supply and demand fudge factor after construction costs at all.

-------------

Reply to child post as HN hates rentier slayers and throttles.

They function in that prices are set. But they are set by credit. And supply is inelastic. Banks use land to gain unearned income through their monopoly on money creation as debt.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#76

Post by theseatoms »

VincentEvans wrote: post #23

Why wouldn't all standard of living benefits of basic income get eliminated immediately by all relevant costs rising to soak it up? This happens every single time the poor get any sort of money. In poor neighborhoods the rents cost as much as people are able to pay, no more, no less. Do you know when most rental deposits are collected? Around the tax return season. If suddenly the poor had some money to spare - the r…

> If suddenly the poor had some money to spare - the rents will simply go up. The water bill will go up. Electricity, gas. Etc.. until there's no extra income left. And then the poor will be in exactly the same situation as they are now.

Remember that these "costs" are seen as revenue to providers of goods and services. What follows can be thought of as the opposite of trickle-down economics.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#77

Post by drumdance »

lghh wrote: post #42
mrfusion wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inside every person, silly.

If I had a decent basic income, I wouldn't be working.

But not everyone would. I really love my work. Fewer people in the marketplace would be good for me because it would drive up my wages, which means I could afford to do things that the average UBI recipient could not.

Also, it's not like UBI would solve all social problems. Many people who like to work in nonprofits today would continue to do so. Probably even more people would because they would have more of a safety net underneath them while they save the world.

That said, I'm skeptical of a UBI. Too many unknown consequences.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#78

Post by judah »

vaadu wrote: post #25

Where is the incentive to get people off the couch looking for work or going to school?

Precisely. The article cites one economist who opposes BI for this very reason:

ROBERT GORDON: As far as a guaranteed minimum income, I’m not in favor of that. I’m in favor of a modest increase in the minimum wage, and a substantial increase in the earned-income tax credit, which encourages low-income people to work.

DUBNER: Why would you not be in favor of the minimum guaranteed income?

GORDON: There’s too much of an incentive, if you guarantee income, to replace work. And if you provide a guaranteed minimum income to everybody, then those with low skills will drop out of the labor force and will no longer work. So I think it’s a matter of incentives. A guaranteed minimum income would put a very high implicit marginal tax rate on going to work, for those with relatively low skills.

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#79

Post by James001 »

VincentEvans wrote: post #23

Why wouldn't all standard of living benefits of basic income get eliminated immediately by all relevant costs rising to soak it up? This happens every single time the poor get any sort of money. In poor neighborhoods the rents cost as much as people are able to pay, no more, no less. Do you know when most rental deposits are collected? Around the tax return season. If suddenly the poor had some money to spare - the r…

Even if nothing changed, it would have been worth it for the simple fact that it simplifies the bureaucracy of it all. That's basic income's most important feature

Re: Is the World Ready for a Guaranteed Basic Income?

#80

Post by lghh »

fzzzy wrote: post #41
lghh wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This theoretically will give the poor more leverage in negotiating the salaries etc., and they'll be able to get higher quality jobs. How will it help them to get higher paying jobs?

Because they are not forced to take whatever they can get to eat.

So how many of these higher paying jobs exist? And now who is completing for them? Or are the low paying jobs going to suddenly start paying more?

I'd say they have less leverage.

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