The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It • Hacker News Board

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#141

Post by lazaroclapp » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 11:08 PM UTC

rsync wrote: post #112

baddox wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I expect what would really happen if SF just went all in building new housing, is that prices would drop in the city slightly, allowing people to move back into the city, thus increasing demand and increasing prices back to where they were. That seems unlikely to me, based on intuition and my admittedly elementary understanding of economics. It seems very unlikely that a significant increase in the quantity of hous…

It would indeed cause the pricing to drop, but just temporarily until all the new housing stock was filled. Basically, the author is suggesting that (within practical bounds) the demand for housing inside SF is unlimited. I think it's a fair assessment.

Is it, really? The entire current population of the Bay Area is tiny (7 million people across 101 cities, less than a million in S.F. proper). Compare:

Tokyo metro area: 37.8 Million

Mexico City metro area: 21.2 Million

NYC metro area: 20 Million

If demand where truly unlimited, then building up S.F. to Tokyo standards or above over the next few decades should be practical, since that level of demand would provide the funds for the growth. Of course, what is really going to happen is that demand will likely stabilize around or below the 15 million threshold for the entire Bay Area.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#142

Post by aianus » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 11:15 PM UTC

Agustus wrote: post #67

mdb333 wrote: post #28

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_%281... Good thoughts. You failed to mention Prop 13 which was put into place a long time ago and simply doesn't make sense anymore. It's at least part of the reason it is so affordable (in relative terms) for rich people to keep second homes here when they bought them years ago. We live in a building of 60 units where probably at least a third of those are abse…

In your example, the building you describe is a condominium? If so, then what does it matter what your tax bill is and if they are absentee owners; if the owner maintains the property, pays their bills and taxes, then you should be happy to have them. Tax reassessments during the boom of 2001 to 2007 were on track to price a lot of people out of their houses based on their current economic status. Proposition 13 and…

> why would you want the market fluctuations to be able to force an individual to leave their house?

To make room for newcomers with higher-paying jobs who, in some sense, 'deserve' to live there more than you do. Unpopular opinion, but that's how we ration every other limited resource; it goes to the highest bidder, not the first mover.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#143

Post by lazaroclapp » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 11:17 PM UTC

Fede_V wrote: post #31

Housing in SF is an incredibly powerful illustration of the danger of letting things get so bad that the usual remedies no longer apply. Basically: - Traditionally, the proper fix for a shortage of housing is to build more houses. Just lift the existing regulations, and let the free market do what it does best: take care of the demand at an efficient price. - However, after years and years of very slow building, the…

> the houses would almost all be built for the very well off. The amount of houses you'd have to build before you started constructing truly affordable housing is immense.

Actually, if demand is so high, why would anyone bother with building a house for a single family, willing to pay say $10,000,000, when they can build a 120 floor building of small apartments for 25,000 people, each willing to pay $200,000 (on average)?

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#144

Post by x0x0 » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 11:27 PM UTC

lubujackson wrote: post #134

I keep saying these same arguments put forth (add more affordable housing!) but the reality is that there are very specific laws that cause the crazy prices here and it ISN'T because of a lack of housing. It's lack of liquidity. First there is Prop 13, which is the Ponzi scheme that let's older owners pay basically the same tax rate forever. This means that landlords have little reason to repair or sell properties. W…

Fact: units built after 1979 are not rent controlled.

Fact: neither are single family homes, including most condos if you moved in after 1 jan 1986 (30 years ago).

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#145

Post by x0x0 » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 11:29 PM UTC

muzz wrote: post #69

zt wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(I'm the author) Prop 13 is a problem, no doubt. It would deserve a very long essay -- some of them exist as sub-essays within Kim-Mai Cutler's writings. I tried to focus on policy ideas that, more-or-less, San Francisco could implement themselves.

The magnitude of Prop 13's distortions contribute much more to the problem than policies that a city could implement itself. Housing is often viewed as a San Francisco problem, but really it's an area-wide problem acutely and a state-wide problem more broadly. I.e., areas outside the policy of San Francisco, such as peninsula, south bay, etc, are not significantly cheaper. And entire other metros, like Los Angeles an…

prop13 doesn't prevent sf from building, and building up.

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#146

Post by rsmsky1 » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 11:35 PM UTC

Is San Francisco really on a path to becoming almost entirely white? I thought a large portion of the Sunset and Richmond were Asian and it had a much larger Asian percentage than other cities?

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#147

Post by rayiner » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 11:36 PM UTC

coroutines wrote: post #74

mdb333 wrote: post #28

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_%281... Good thoughts. You failed to mention Prop 13 which was put into place a long time ago and simply doesn't make sense anymore. It's at least part of the reason it is so affordable (in relative terms) for rich people to keep second homes here when they bought them years ago. We live in a building of 60 units where probably at least a third of those are abse…

Prop 13 is really great and really bad. My grandparents own a home in Livermore they've had from 1925. Livermore is now a very costly place to live in, and modern property taxes would make it impossible for them to live in a city they saw grow up around them. I do think Prop 13's protection should be eliminated for businesses - most definitely. If you're a landlord, perhaps it would make sense to allow up to 2 x Prop…

Why should we care more about grandparents than businesses?

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#148

Post by 650REDHAIR » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 11:37 PM UTC

lubujackson wrote: post #134

I keep saying these same arguments put forth (add more affordable housing!) but the reality is that there are very specific laws that cause the crazy prices here and it ISN'T because of a lack of housing. It's lack of liquidity. First there is Prop 13, which is the Ponzi scheme that let's older owners pay basically the same tax rate forever. This means that landlords have little reason to repair or sell properties. W…

Let's just evict everyone who isn't paying $3,000/mo for a 1 bedroom!

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#149

Post by dv_dt » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 11:38 PM UTC

lubujackson wrote: post #134

I keep saying these same arguments put forth (add more affordable housing!) but the reality is that there are very specific laws that cause the crazy prices here and it ISN'T because of a lack of housing. It's lack of liquidity. First there is Prop 13, which is the Ponzi scheme that let's older owners pay basically the same tax rate forever. This means that landlords have little reason to repair or sell properties. W…

If the system pushes out those renters, there's no guarantee that maybe the rents are freed to rise that much quicker...

Re: The Housing Market in San Francisco and Ideas to Fix It

#150

Post by dv_dt » Thu, Apr 07, 2016, 11:41 PM UTC

mdb333 wrote: post #28

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_%281... Good thoughts. You failed to mention Prop 13 which was put into place a long time ago and simply doesn't make sense anymore. It's at least part of the reason it is so affordable (in relative terms) for rich people to keep second homes here when they bought them years ago. We live in a building of 60 units where probably at least a third of those are abse…

In my view, Prop 13 is a most problematic as applied to investment/commercial real estate, a lesser one applied to secondary residences - but really is a good thing for primary residences.