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The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

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Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#151

Post by dragontamer »

fab13n wrote: post #69
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Beijing has a plate lottery of 150k vehicles this year, 60k of them are dedicated to EVs. Suffice it to say, I've been seeing a lot of new Teslas (the higher end ones) on the road this year in a place that still barely supports the charging infrastructure. I think the Tesla 3 is going to do very nicely in that market given its artificial constraints.

> given its artificial constraints. Given the lethality of air pollution in Beijing, I'm not sure it's fair to call "artificial" those emission-limiting constraints. Otherwise, you'll also have to call "artificial" the constraint that one can't shoot/knife/strangle people who go out of their ways to be pains in asses, however genuine and natural the urge might seem :-) Other than that, yes, China is likely to be a ve…

On the contrary, Model S hasn't been doing well in China. Luxury electric vehicles is apparently an oxymoron in China. Unlike the US, Chinese consumers have a bunch of electric mopeds and scooters.

The thought of charging your vehicle with electricity is seen as a low-class activity, for those who can't afford a "real gasoline" vehicle.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#152

Post by base698 »

illumin8 wrote: post #123
Malician wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know several (not dumb, either) people who overestimate gas and maintenance savings, ignore the time value of money when calculating the value of both, and simply don't account for all the risks that will come with the first just-released model of a totally new automobile. I don't think any of them will actually end up pulling the trigger (fortunately) but a lot of people who shouldn't, will. I expect it to be a gr…

How is repairing any new car an economic tragedy? I bought a Hyundai in 2008. Since then, I've only had to pay annual maintenance costs averaging $200, and the powertrain has a 10 year 100,000 mile warranty (I'm only at 75,000 miles so far after 7.5 years). The only significant repairs I can imagine on this vehicle are replacing the tires or brakes. As long as the oil changes and maintenance are done regularly, I hig…

> The tesla vehicles have an 8 year warranty on the battery pack, which is the only item besides tires, brakes, and windshield wiper blades that is likely to wear out.

This is Tesla marketing through and through. Look at all the problems the Model S owners have had and reconsider the statement.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#153

Post by dionidium »

ams6110 wrote: post #141
osweiller wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? The average family also isn't buying the Kia Rondo, but I'm not claiming that these beginner cars are skewing the values down, just as I see no data whatsoever to demonstrate any skewing up. SUVs are everywhere. Light trucks are everywhere. Minivans are everywhere. Most of these are in the $35K+ range (the F150 -- t…

I would never spend more than $10K on a car.

Throughout this thread I've argued that most people do not spend $40k on a car. That really shouldn't be controversial, since it's easily verified.

If you want controversial, here you go: a lot of people in this thread own cars that cost $40k and up on a salary that doesn't justify it. They think they can justify it. Everyone is telling them they can afford it. Their friends all have similar salaries and similar cars.

But they're spending too much.

http://www.financialsamurai.com/the-110th-rule-for-car-buyin...

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#154

Post by phaedryx »

harwoodleon wrote: post #25

Elon Musk is the brand investors invest in, not tesla, not spacex. As he says, he is the pot of money - he is the core driver. I personally applaud his bravery, changing the established order is hard and carries great risk. He is the real consortium of products and can shift money between these industries at will. The risk here for all of his companies is that he is building a house of cards, one company collapse cou…

SpaceX - rocket/aerospace research

Tesla - energy storage and AI assisted vehicle research

And then there is the miscellaneous stuff like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Musk_electric_jet

It's obvious that his real 'secret plan' is an ironman suit.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#155

Post by Reason077 »

sbalea wrote: post #93
_ph_ wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which current production car is easily serviceable at third party repair shops? They are pretty much all closed down computers. Also, most services required on the engine and support for older cars are just not required on a Tesla. So it is not obvious that it would be more expensive to maintain than any other car, most likely the opposite.

My 2 years old BMW is one of those heavily computerized cars and can easily be serviced at third party shops. There's a whole network of them that specialize in BMW service, maintenance, and modding. Not to mention that anyone interested can, ahem, 'acquire' BMW service software and start hacking away at their car. You need to expand your tool set to include an Ethernet to ODB2 adapter, but that won't stop even an am…

Teslas, on the other hand, don't even provide a working ODB2 port, and attempts to hook up to the car's internal network were met with legal threats.

I don't know about legal threats, but there is information available online about how to access the Model S CAN bus:

http://www.instructables.com/id/Exploring-the-Tesla-Model-S-...

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#156

Post by knodi123 »

osweiller wrote: post #127
dionidium wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That may be the average cost of a new car, which does not in any way contradict my claim that the median family spends nowhere near that on a car.

Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? The average family also isn't buying the Kia Rondo, but I'm not claiming that these beginner cars are skewing the values down, just as I see no data whatsoever to demonstrate any skewing up. SUVs are everywhere. Light trucks are everywhere. Minivans are everywhere. Most of these are in the $35K+ range (the F150 -- t…

> Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average?

Fact 1: there are a lot more super-expensive cars than super-cheap cars.

Fact 2: The guy you replied to is talking about what a family spends on a car, not what they spend on a new car

Fact 3: income inequality means there are a lot more poor families than wealthy families. income distribution in america is not a bell curve.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#157

Post by osweiller »

dionidium wrote: post #150
osweiller wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The goal posts seem to keep moving, but this whole discussion began because of a disagreement about whether this would qualify as a "mass produced" car because "Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car". Yet the #1, most popular vehicle sold in the US, the Ford F-150, sells for over $41K generally. There are many other completely ordinary, most certainly mass produced, vehicles in that price range. Bought by entir…

Since you're the second person in this thread to think my post had anything at all to do with the definition of "mass-produced," I guess I should apologize for being unclear. That wasn't my point at all. Obviously it will be "mass-produced" for any reasonable definition of the phrase. My point was that this is still a luxury vehicle that will be purchased by people whose wallets will be able to handle production prob…

From your original post. The statement that everyone apparently isn't understanding right-

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car.

You are moving the goal posts around to somehow derive a win through some simply wrong statements. That's hardly uncommon, and is the manifestation of ego.

There is a reason for that. That is a work vehicle.

The overwhelming bulk of F150s are bought for personal use, which is exactly why the average price is so high now. The work truck doesn't have the leather interior and xenon lighting package.

And, again, I think the evidence is on my side.

I have no idea what your "side" even is (though your core claims are simply wrong, it seems that you're trying to say that this is such an exclusive, abnormal price range of cars that the buyers are more forgiving? I find that almost impossible to believe: if you want to see an angry, demanding customer, get to know someone with a BMW 3-series). There are almost 18 million new vehicles sold in the US per year. The average price is pushing towards $35K. This is where Tesla is getting involved (I don't think anyone makes cars for the used car market...), exactly at the sweet spot of the average price.

Your priceonomics link has literally zero relevance to this, or data applicable to this discussion.

You desperately want to be right, and that's a pretty common sentiment. Fine. But your original claim was simply wrong (elsewhere you twisted it to not only somehow claim that these people aren't "normal", but also that people who buy a more expensive car are wrong and shouldn't be doing it anyways), however much you claim that people missed your ethereal point. The Tesla 3 absolutely falls within the realm of mass produced cars, and millions of entirely "normal" people are buying that price range of vehicle. They are targeting a completely ordinary market.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#158

Post by soared »

mabbo wrote: post #96
harwoodleon wrote: post #25

Elon Musk is the brand investors invest in, not tesla, not spacex. As he says, he is the pot of money - he is the core driver. I personally applaud his bravery, changing the established order is hard and carries great risk. He is the real consortium of products and can shift money between these industries at will. The risk here for all of his companies is that he is building a house of cards, one company collapse cou…

He actually gambled the house of cards early on. SpaceX needed money, he bet Tesla, and they got lucky. It's not simply that he's a great entrepreneur, it's that his goals seem to be slightly different from others. Every business owner wants to make a lot of money, but Musk has decided to do that via pushing humanity into a Sci-fi future as soon as possible.

"Make humans a multi-planet species"

"Disrupt the oil industry's hold on america"

His goals are crazy. Crazy awesome.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#160

Post by dragontamer »

tdicola wrote: post #22
dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of…

Your numbers are ridiculous.

Honda Civic LX is 18,640, while the high-end "Touring" trim is $26,500.

http://automobiles.honda.com/tools/build-price/trims.aspx?Mo...

Mazda 3 is $17,845 to $25,795.

And these are at MSRP, and lulz to anyone who can't manage to get a car below MSRP. Pushing up against $30k? Are you kidding me?

Maybe a "racing" model, like Ford Focus ST or Subaru WRX (a small, but very powerful engine, costs premium) will get you to $30k. But you can deck-out these starter vehicles and keep costs around $20k easily.

And as others have said: normal people don't buy new cars.

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