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The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

teslamotors.com

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Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#141

Post by ams6110 »

osweiller wrote: post #127
dionidium wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That may be the average cost of a new car, which does not in any way contradict my claim that the median family spends nowhere near that on a car.

Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? The average family also isn't buying the Kia Rondo, but I'm not claiming that these beginner cars are skewing the values down, just as I see no data whatsoever to demonstrate any skewing up. SUVs are everywhere. Light trucks are everywhere. Minivans are everywhere. Most of these are in the $35K+ range (the F150 -- t…

I would never spend more than $10K on a car.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#142

Post by JugMarker »

Hermel wrote: post #12
JayHost wrote: post #5

I remember their plan is basically how Ford operated. It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and thinking how cool it was. Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING. It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages can be summed as. There's no reason to buy any other car.

>It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. The BMW electric cars (i3 and i8) are quite successful, beating Tesla sales-wise in Germany and selling half as many world-wide. The great weakness of the Tesla S in the German market ist the German autobahn, where it runs out of energy very quickly (after an hour or so for aggressive drivers). The Tesla S is not designed for sustained high speeds.

I would love a Tesla for my daily commute in Frankfurt, but there are no charging stations. I actually live in walking distance of a Tesla store, but you can charge your car only during business hours.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#143

Post by jacquesm »

illumin8 wrote: post #122
jacquesm wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They're buying them because they're better cars. Faster, quieter, more fun to drive, filled with the latest technology. EV's are great for a number of use cases but they are not even close to a viable option for many uses of ICE's at the present. No doubt this will change but even if a Tesla is a 'better car' than my daily driver 'Faster', 'Quieter', 'more fun to drive' and 'filled with the latest technology' do no…

Yet again, you're parroting the "I can fill my ICE vehicle in What was the range of the first ICE vehicle I bought on a tank of gas? 300 miles. What's the range of the Tesla model S? Also 300 miles. For most consumers, they will actually spend less time waiting for fuel, since the Tesla charges in your garage at night while you're otherwise occupied, and an ICE vehicle requires you to wait in freezing outside tempera…

I was writing a much longer comment but I figured it is better to put comments that long off-site, so here you go:

http://jacquesmattheij.com/the-problem-with-evs

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#144

Post by osweiller »

ma2rten wrote: post #132
osweiller wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? The average family also isn't buying the Kia Rondo, but I'm not claiming that these beginner cars are skewing the values down, just as I see no data whatsoever to demonstrate any skewing up. SUVs are everywhere. Light trucks are everywhere. Minivans are everywhere. Most of these are in the $35K+ range (the F150 -- t…

I did a quick Google search. According to KBB the average price for a new car in August 2015 was $33,543. Since this doesn't include used cars, I think it's fair to say that the average household is spending less than that.

The goal posts seem to keep moving, but this whole discussion began because of a disagreement about whether this would qualify as a "mass produced" car because "Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car".

Yet the #1, most popular vehicle sold in the US, the Ford F-150, sells for over $41K generally. There are many other completely ordinary, most certainly mass produced, vehicles in that price range. Bought by entirely "normal" people.

These discussions always remind me of a great Onion article (http://www.theonion.com/article/sociologist-considers-own-be...) about projecting one's own lot across the population at large, and using our own situation and choices to define "normal".

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#145

Post by jamisteven »

ams6110 wrote: post #141
osweiller wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? The average family also isn't buying the Kia Rondo, but I'm not claiming that these beginner cars are skewing the values down, just as I see no data whatsoever to demonstrate any skewing up. SUVs are everywhere. Light trucks are everywhere. Minivans are everywhere. Most of these are in the $35K+ range (the F150 -- t…

I would never spend more than $10K on a car.

Never say never.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#148

Post by TheCondor »

Malician wrote: post #30
dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

I know several (not dumb, either) people who overestimate gas and maintenance savings, ignore the time value of money when calculating the value of both, and simply don't account for all the risks that will come with the first just-released model of a totally new automobile. I don't think any of them will actually end up pulling the trigger (fortunately) but a lot of people who shouldn't, will. I expect it to be a gr…

Making a "great car" is no easy task. At that price point, they are going up against some all time greats: Camry, Accord, Sonata, others. That means 200,000 miles with only standard maintenance and relatively low performance degradation. All weather, all conditions, being a daily driver. Also, most of those cars are babied for a while, then the honeymoon wears off and a lot of them are almost abused after that. Aggressive 16 year old boys learning to drive in them... Being parked outside all the time... Shit is about to get real for tesla, I really hope they deliver a great car, it's just a monumentally difficult challenge. There will be a lot of bumps along the way.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#149

Post by Reason077 »

jedmeyers wrote: post #23
bronson wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The warranty is 8 years. Cars don't just die the moment the warranty runs out, including Teslas. https://www.teslamotors.com/blog/infinite-mile-warranty

The is no practical way to service a Tesla yourself or in a 3rd party repair shop, like you can a 15 year old Civic. Therefore used Teslas would quickly become financially disadvantageous to service and their price would approach zero on a secondary market.

The is no practical way to service a Tesla yourself or in a 3rd party repair shop

Do you think that will still be true in 8, 12, or 15 years?

There's nothing about an EV that makes it fundamentally more difficult to service or repair compared to an ICE vehicle, other than the fact that they're not as common yet. But in time, EVs will be as ordinary as any Honda.

There's some interesting videos on YouTube where a guy in Switzerland bought a used Tesla motor and inverter, dragged it back to his flat and managed to power it up and spin it using his own custom built universal controller (he's planning to use it in his own electric car conversion).

The point is: EV aren't some magic black box that can't be understood by normal people. They can be hacked, serviced, repaired just like any other car.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#150

Post by dionidium »

osweiller wrote: post #144
ma2rten wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did a quick Google search. According to KBB the average price for a new car in August 2015 was $33,543. Since this doesn't include used cars, I think it's fair to say that the average household is spending less than that.

The goal posts seem to keep moving, but this whole discussion began because of a disagreement about whether this would qualify as a "mass produced" car because "Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car". Yet the #1, most popular vehicle sold in the US, the Ford F-150, sells for over $41K generally. There are many other completely ordinary, most certainly mass produced, vehicles in that price range. Bought by entir…

Since you're the second person in this thread to think my post had anything at all to do with the definition of "mass-produced," I guess I should apologize for being unclear. That wasn't my point at all.

Obviously it will be "mass-produced" for any reasonable definition of the phrase. My point was that this is still a luxury vehicle that will be purchased by people whose wallets will be able to handle production problems.

"Yet the #1, most popular vehicle sold in the US, the Ford F-150"

There is a reason for that. That is a work vehicle.

"These discussions always remind me of a great Onion article about projecting one's own lot across the population at large, and using our own situation and choices to define "normal"."

This is hilarious because it's exactly what I'm responding to. Some set of the HN crowd, despite this entire discussion, still seems to think $40k is a normal amount of money to spend on a car. It isn't. And, again, I think the evidence is on my side. The median family does not, in fact, buy $40k cars, regardless of whether you think I'm projecting or not.

Here, for example, is some information on median used car prices:

http://priceonomics.com/cars/

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