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The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

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Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#121

Post by arethuza »

Reason077 wrote: post #120
arethuza wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Biggest problem for me with electric cars is the simple fact that I live in a flat - a very nice flat in a very nice European city [1]. Our car lives on the quiet street outside - so how, in the foreseeable future, would I get an electric car charged? NB Is anyone looking into solving this particular problem - because it's one that a lot of people will face. 1 - I mention this as it is inconceivable to me that I woul…

Kerbside charging points are already becoming common in many cities, although a lot more are going to be needed. Look to cities like Oslo or Amsterdam for examples of best practice here. Some boroughs of London are quite well covered, with charging points every 1-2 blocks or so (Westminster), where as other parts are pretty useless (Camden). Because the charge point spots are reserved for EVs only, and can only be us…

"attached to existing street light poles"

Now that's a sensible idea.

I have seen a couple of Teslas in Edinburgh - but they look like people commuting into the city. Not seen an electric car parked anywhere that looked like the owner lived there.

Our car usage doesn't really fit with current electric cars usage - but I'd love to try if we had a suitable home and a need to commute by car (both my wife and I walk to work at the moment).

Edit: Another option would be to buy a garage - but at £60K to £80K that would rather defeat the purpose of buying an electric car to save money!

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#122

Post by illumin8 »

jacquesm wrote: post #84
Reason077 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them Really? I can't imagine anyone who's actually driven a Tesla wanting to go back to an ICE vehicle. People aren't buying Teslas because they're greener or cheaper to operate or even because of government incentives (although those are additional, feel-good benefits). They're buying them because they…

> They're buying them because they're better cars. Faster, quieter, more fun to drive, filled with the latest technology. EV's are great for a number of use cases but they are not even close to a viable option for many uses of ICE's at the present. No doubt this will change but even if a Tesla is a 'better car' than my daily driver 'Faster', 'Quieter', 'more fun to drive' and 'filled with the latest technology' do no…

Yet again, you're parroting the "I can fill my ICE vehicle in What was the range of the first ICE vehicle I bought on a tank of gas? 300 miles. What's the range of the Tesla model S? Also 300 miles.

For most consumers, they will actually spend less time waiting for fuel, since the Tesla charges in your garage at night while you're otherwise occupied, and an ICE vehicle requires you to wait in freezing outside temperatures while fueling it about once per week.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#123

Post by illumin8 »

Malician wrote: post #30
dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

I know several (not dumb, either) people who overestimate gas and maintenance savings, ignore the time value of money when calculating the value of both, and simply don't account for all the risks that will come with the first just-released model of a totally new automobile. I don't think any of them will actually end up pulling the trigger (fortunately) but a lot of people who shouldn't, will. I expect it to be a gr…

How is repairing any new car an economic tragedy? I bought a Hyundai in 2008. Since then, I've only had to pay annual maintenance costs averaging $200, and the powertrain has a 10 year 100,000 mile warranty (I'm only at 75,000 miles so far after 7.5 years).

The only significant repairs I can imagine on this vehicle are replacing the tires or brakes. As long as the oil changes and maintenance are done regularly, I highly doubt the engine will have any problems until 200,000 miles or so, at which point the vehicle will be almost 20 years old and have cost about $1,000 a year to drive.

New vehicles are incredibly reliable (compared to vehicles produced in the 20th century) and are likely to last a long time, although the electronics will surely be dated when they are 20 years old.

The tesla vehicles have an 8 year warranty on the battery pack, which is the only item besides tires, brakes, and windshield wiper blades that is likely to wear out.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#124

Post by akmiller »

green7ea wrote: post #104
sudhirj wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

8 years for the battery or the car? The batteries are replacable in a minute or so.

The batteries are the single biggest cost in an electric car. The rest is all much cheaper than a conventional car. Replacing a your batteries would be a significant cost compared to buying a new car. It might even be 1/3 of the new ticket price.

Last I saw the battery expectation is around 15 years. In 15 years, at the rate of development of EV's and research/development being put into batteries, it would be reasonable to expect that batteries would be significantly cheaper with much better technology.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#125

Post by illumin8 »

kelseyfrancis wrote: post #53
tdicola wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of…

Yes, it seems pretty common to spend $35k on a vehicle, and of course people buying $35k sedans are in the Model 3 market, but I don't think that includes even new small economy car buyers. It would be difficult to spend $30k on a new standard-engine Mazda 3. Mine was $18k brand new. The top standard-engine trim is around $25k. That other $10-17k is another $165-285/month over 5 years at 0% interest, and that is not…

You're comparing a Mazda 3, which is an economy car, against an entry-level luxury sedan. This is a bad comparison.

Mazda doesn't even have a car in this segment. You should be comparing it against a BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Acura TL, Mercedes C-series, Lexus GS.

All of those vehicles start in the 30s, and you would be lucky to get out the door with reasonable options under $50K. You could probably get the BMW up to almost $100K when you start considering the M package and various sports options.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#126

Post by nunez »

dionidium wrote: post #19
doctorcroc wrote: post #7

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

If I had to wager a guess, that's right around the average MSRP for most leased vehicles on the road, and I believe Tesla has a leasing program.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#127

Post by osweiller »

dionidium wrote: post #27
agf wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average new car price in March 2016 was $33,666. There are plenty of "mass-produced" cars in this price range. http://mediaroom.kbb.com/new-car-transaction-prices-up-2-per...

That may be the average cost of a new car, which does not in any way contradict my claim that the median family spends nowhere near that on a car.

Do you have any evidence or data to demonstrate that the "median family" spends less than the average? The average family also isn't buying the Kia Rondo, but I'm not claiming that these beginner cars are skewing the values down, just as I see no data whatsoever to demonstrate any skewing up.

SUVs are everywhere. Light trucks are everywhere. Minivans are everywhere. Most of these are in the $35K+ range (the F150 -- the top selling US vehicle -- has an average selling price of $41,776). Even a decently equipped Honda Accord (along with light trucks, the most popular car in the US. Not the Civic, but the Accord) is pushing past $30K.

Often the median and the average skew. But minus actual data beyond just anecdotes, the average is the best we have.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#128

Post by coredog64 »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #81
JayHost wrote: post #5

I remember their plan is basically how Ford operated. It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and thinking how cool it was. Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING. It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages can be summed as. There's no reason to buy any other car.

> It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. There's a video talk on youtube by one of the original Tesla co-founders, Marc Tarpenning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf15nMnayXk and his take on it (in amongst lots of other cool info), learned from later consulting for those same companies, was that the car companies outsourced everything but the engine. Then tesla came along, bought all the standard…

Third party should be in quotes. Visteon, Delphi, Denso et al aren't really what you'd think of when you think third party. They're more of a way to split up parts of the same business for tax/labor advantages.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#129

Post by mikeash »

viraptor wrote: post #36
tdicola wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of…

You're still talking about new cars, rather than what people actually buy. http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/for-sale/?src=14597540479... says you can go well under 20k for a Honda Civic if you don't want a new one.

There is no point in bringing up the price of used cars when talking about the price of a new car and how that positions it in the market. Somebody had to purchase that Civic when it was new, after all.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#130

Post by illumin8 »

_pmf_ wrote: post #42
JayHost wrote: post #5

I remember their plan is basically how Ford operated. It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and thinking how cool it was. Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING. It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages can be summed as. There's no reason to buy any other car.

> It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. They have not made a single dollar of profit. Yes, it's an incredibly successful and impressive technology demonstration, but production at the scale that is now required is completely different from the development stage. One example: regular manufacturers are only able to keep their high production numbers because they are able to compensate for hiccups i…

Correction: every car they sell is profitable, but they've chosen to reinvest those profits to increase future manufacturing capacity.
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