The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006) • Hacker News Board

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#91

Post by vinay427 » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 11:18 AM UTC

andersen1488 wrote: post #80

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is an artificial market constraint, Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should (debatable: perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines, at least the cars are checked for air quality, the coal plants aren't!). But I also agree it's a valid way of making the air cleaner if it would have an effect. BYD already produces electric cars that…

> Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should Neither is anyone else. People buy Teslas because they are the best car money can buy.

>People buy Teslas because they are the best car money can buy.

I can't imagine you can make a valid case that there is one best car that money can buy, presumably for everyone who can afford one.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#92

Post by pluma » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 11:21 AM UTC

Reason077 wrote: post #79

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is an artificial market constraint, Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should (debatable: perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines, at least the cars are checked for air quality, the coal plants aren't!). But I also agree it's a valid way of making the air cleaner if it would have an effect. BYD already produces electric cars that…

the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them Really? I can't imagine anyone who's actually driven a Tesla wanting to go back to an ICE vehicle. People aren't buying Teslas because they're greener or cheaper to operate or even because of government incentives (although those are additional, feel-good benefits). They're buying them because they…

Let's not kid ourselves: right now people are buying Teslas for the same reason they're buying high-end Apple products.

They're well-made, sure, but they're foremost a luxury and status symbol. They're better than other status symbols because they actually have functional value that comes close to their market value, but they're still a status symbol.

However it seems that Tesla is actually trying to reduce its price point to make their products more affordable -- and that they're not as interested in treating their product as a fashion brand (yet).

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#93

Post by sbalea » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 11:27 AM UTC

_ph_ wrote: post #29

jedmeyers wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The is no practical way to service a Tesla yourself or in a 3rd party repair shop, like you can a 15 year old Civic. Therefore used Teslas would quickly become financially disadvantageous to service and their price would approach zero on a secondary market.

Which current production car is easily serviceable at third party repair shops? They are pretty much all closed down computers. Also, most services required on the engine and support for older cars are just not required on a Tesla. So it is not obvious that it would be more expensive to maintain than any other car, most likely the opposite.

My 2 years old BMW is one of those heavily computerized cars and can easily be serviced at third party shops. There's a whole network of them that specialize in BMW service, maintenance, and modding. Not to mention that anyone interested can, ahem, 'acquire' BMW service software and start hacking away at their car. You need to expand your tool set to include an Ethernet to ODB2 adapter, but that won't stop even an amateur tinkerer like me. Teslas, on the other hand, don't even provide a working ODB2 port, and attempts to hook up to the car's internal network were met with legal threats.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#94

Post by glaberficken » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 11:29 AM UTC

huuu wrote: post #10

Related is Tesla's recycling program of batteries: https://www.teslamotors.com/nl_NL/blog/teslas-closed-loop-ba... Some people are skeptical about electric cars because the estimate life span of a battery is around eight years. But reading the article above (and others) you can see the batteries are not an issue anymore. I was also a little skeptical about electric cars but I think the absolute pros are: * Electricit…

>No noise pollution.

EVs will still generate a fair amount of noise pollution. There will be important improvements for city quality of life, mostly in reductions in the sub 35kmh acceleration/deceleration moments. But for highway speeds the reductions will not be that big.

Check this interesting wikipedia article for reference. Linking to the part that lists the basic variables that affect Roadway Noise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roadway_noise#Description_of_b...

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#95

Post by dingaling » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 11:32 AM UTC

MrFoof wrote: post #14

jakobegger wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They clearly underestimated the cost of the Model S (it's a luxury car, not a "sporty affordable family car"). But overall their strategy seems to be working out beautifully.

No, I think they changed the strategy somewhat. Who has the best margins in the automotive industry? Porsche. In fact, it's almost always been Porsche since their recovery from the mid-90s. Porsche's margins are so good, investors are complaining that the high-volume Macan is dragging down margins to a "terrible" 16% from their typical 19-20% -- which (the 19-20%) is double what Audi's (#2 for industry margins) margi…

> Who has the best margins in the automotive industry? Porsche.

You can't really split Porsche off from the rest of the Volkswagen group; their margins derive largely from taking commodity VAG platforms* and adding bespoke engines, tuning magic and brand cachet.

If they had to return to the pre-1990s stand-alone operating model they'd be as unprofitable as, well, Tesla.

If you do want to compare them to another car company it'd be AMG or Alpina who operate in the same manner and enjoy the same benefits of mass-produced chassis.

* which are developed with a lot of Porsche input but are made on common production lines before being shipped to the 'brands' for completion

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#96

Post by mabbo » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 12:01 PM UTC

harwoodleon wrote: post #25

Elon Musk is the brand investors invest in, not tesla, not spacex. As he says, he is the pot of money - he is the core driver. I personally applaud his bravery, changing the established order is hard and carries great risk. He is the real consortium of products and can shift money between these industries at will. The risk here for all of his companies is that he is building a house of cards, one company collapse cou…

He actually gambled the house of cards early on. SpaceX needed money, he bet Tesla, and they got lucky.

It's not simply that he's a great entrepreneur, it's that his goals seem to be slightly different from others. Every business owner wants to make a lot of money, but Musk has decided to do that via pushing humanity into a Sci-fi future as soon as possible.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#97

Post by lttlrck » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 12:02 PM UTC

tdicola wrote: post #22

dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of…

In highly doubt the Midel 3 is going to be immune from price increases as options are added. Currently we have absolutely no idea what the equation will be so the comparison with cars that start in the low 20s is inappropriate.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#98

Post by arethuza » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 12:04 PM UTC

jacquesm wrote: post #84

Reason077 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them Really? I can't imagine anyone who's actually driven a Tesla wanting to go back to an ICE vehicle. People aren't buying Teslas because they're greener or cheaper to operate or even because of government incentives (although those are additional, feel-good benefits). They're buying them because they…

> They're buying them because they're better cars. Faster, quieter, more fun to drive, filled with the latest technology. EV's are great for a number of use cases but they are not even close to a viable option for many uses of ICE's at the present. No doubt this will change but even if a Tesla is a 'better car' than my daily driver 'Faster', 'Quieter', 'more fun to drive' and 'filled with the latest technology' do no…

Biggest problem for me with electric cars is the simple fact that I live in a flat - a very nice flat in a very nice European city [1]. Our car lives on the quiet street outside - so how, in the foreseeable future, would I get an electric car charged?

NB Is anyone looking into solving this particular problem - because it's one that a lot of people will face.

1 - I mention this as it is inconceivable to me that I would move simply to have a different kind of car.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#99

Post by adwn » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 12:07 PM UTC

_fizz_buzz_ wrote: post #58

JayHost wrote: post #5

I remember their plan is basically how Ford operated. It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and thinking how cool it was. Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING. It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages can be summed as. There's no reason to buy any other car.

> It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. This amazes me so much. I cannot believe that companies like Volkswagen basically ignore the EV market (except some half-assed E-Golf or something). I mean even if it really turns out to be fad - which I don't believe - don't they want to hedge their bets a little bit? Has nobody there ever heard of companies like Nokia, Blackberry, etc.?

It's the innovator's dilemma [1] in action.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Innovator's_Dilemma

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#100

Post by prawn » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 12:19 PM UTC

agumonkey wrote: post #43

prawn wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree - it's incredible. How Time have not managed to throw him Person of the Year yet, I cannot understand. The cars, the solar network and SpaceX. They're huge undertakings.

read the article here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11419772 may be a reason why Musk isn't there yet.

I didn't see anything there that would preclude him from topping some recent Person of the Year candidates. His companies have achieved impressive things already - including a car already launched to very strong reviews.

The article compares the Model 3 to the Bolt. I think in the second phase of his unveiling, Musk will announce that the Model 3 will be self-driving. There were strong indications in his Twitter AMA yesterday that it won't be driven like a normal car.