The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006) • Hacker News Board

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#81

Post by ZeroGravitas » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 10:20 AM UTC

JayHost wrote: post #5

I remember their plan is basically how Ford operated. It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and thinking how cool it was. Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING. It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages can be summed as. There's no reason to buy any other car.

> It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly.

There's a video talk on youtube by one of the original Tesla co-founders, Marc Tarpenning:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf15nMnayXk

and his take on it (in amongst lots of other cool info), learned from later consulting for those same companies, was that the car companies outsourced everything but the engine. Then tesla came along, bought all the standard parts (windscreen wipers etc.) from these third party companies, and have no need for ICE engines.

So now you have people, who built their entire corporate status hierarchy around ICE engine experience, trying to start afresh.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#82

Post by cbr » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 10:23 AM UTC

huuu wrote: post #65

ricardobeat wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's like saying everyone should cut down their JavaScript files by 1kb to reduce emissions.

I don't think you got my point, but yes, cutting down your JavaScript files will reduce emission.

The idea is that you should prioritize based on impact-for-effort and not sweat the small stuff.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#83

Post by deepGem » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 10:26 AM UTC

dionidium wrote: post #19

doctorcroc wrote: post #7

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

True. A real affordable EV will be in the price range of a Civic. Given that, I can't imagine the headroom for Tesla to grow. It's hard to quantify Tesla's growth beyond Model 3, like a PE multiple that can justify Tesla's value.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#84

Post by jacquesm » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 10:34 AM UTC

Reason077 wrote: post #79

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is an artificial market constraint, Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should (debatable: perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines, at least the cars are checked for air quality, the coal plants aren't!). But I also agree it's a valid way of making the air cleaner if it would have an effect. BYD already produces electric cars that…

the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them Really? I can't imagine anyone who's actually driven a Tesla wanting to go back to an ICE vehicle. People aren't buying Teslas because they're greener or cheaper to operate or even because of government incentives (although those are additional, feel-good benefits). They're buying them because they…

> They're buying them because they're better cars. Faster, quieter, more fun to drive, filled with the latest technology.

EV's are great for a number of use cases but they are not even close to a viable option for many uses of ICE's at the present. No doubt this will change but even if a Tesla is a 'better car' than my daily driver 'Faster', 'Quieter', 'more fun to drive' and 'filled with the latest technology' do not move the needle for me relative to 'can function anywhere on the European continent without any worry whatsoever', 'fuels up in Oh, and if with 'faster' you are talking about acceleration then I really don't know why that would even be a factor because in normal daily driving that's the least of your problems and so on. This appears to be an argument based mostly on emotion rather than actual facts around transportation.

Taxi services, commuting, local transport are all excellent use cases for EVs. Going longer distances a hybrid is right now probably the best you can do and it will be a while before EVs will be able to compete across the board with ICE's. You'll know when we have achieved parity because gas stations will start closing, or will replace pumps with EV super charging stations en-masse.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#85

Post by trymas » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 10:38 AM UTC

vrfcodf wrote: post #64

trymas wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TL;DR: IMHO, if nothing will change drastically in battery tech, after 100 years, we will have same problem with EVs as we now have the problem with combustion engines and oil. IMHO, one of the biggest problems from the tech side (I know that there are many hard problems, but this concerns me the most) is battery manufacturing. They already have built the gigafactory which produces (or will produce) more batteries (o…

I agree with you, although it is incorrect to assume that batteries will be always lithium based.

I know that, though what I meant is that battery manufacturing can be limiting factor for EVs if they are dependent on limited resources.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#86

Post by vrfcodf » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 10:39 AM UTC

trymas wrote: post #85

vrfcodf wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you, although it is incorrect to assume that batteries will be always lithium based.

I know that, though what I meant is that battery manufacturing can be limiting factor for EVs if they are dependent on limited resources.

Limiting resources are a limiting factor, kinda a tautology.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#87

Post by Shengbo » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 11:11 AM UTC

grahamburger wrote: post #70

tdicola wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of…

Normal people don't buy new cars.

I agree, I wouldn't ever consider buying new unless it was a company lease.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#88

Post by Shengbo » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 11:15 AM UTC

Shivetya wrote: post #71

dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

I would think the median price for vehicles tends to list high as trucks which account for a large number of sales regularly have stickers in that range. Throw in the atypical family CUV/Van can place in the low thirties as well. Cars the size of the 3 place in the teens to mid twenties though there are examples outside those ranges. The issues EVs have always faced is that many families if not individuals cannot aff…

>I would think the median price for vehicles tends to list high as trucks which account for a large number of sales regularly have stickers in that range.

That may be true for the US market but Tesla is selling globally now. Trucks don't sell very well in Europe for example.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#89

Post by pluma » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 11:16 AM UTC

Reason077 wrote: post #78

Hermel wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. The BMW electric cars (i3 and i8) are quite successful, beating Tesla sales-wise in Germany and selling half as many world-wide. The great weakness of the Tesla S in the German market ist the German autobahn, where it runs out of energy very quickly (after an hour or so for aggressive drivers). The Tesla S is not designed for sustained high speeds.

The great weakness of the Tesla S in the German market ist the German autobahn, where it runs out of energy very quickly (after an hour or so for aggressive drivers). OK, if you're averaging 200 km/h on the Autobahn then you will run out of energy pretty quickly. But this is just as true with ICE vehicles. If you're getting twice the energy consumption in an EV then you'll also be getting twice the fuel consumption i…

> averaging 200 km/h on the Autobahn

The recommended average speed on the Autobahn is 130 km/h. In reality due to congestion, noise reduction, construction work and maintenance there are probably more stretches with limits below that than not (typically 80 km/h or 60 km/h around roadworks, though there are also plenty of 100 km/h and 120 km/h stretches for no obvious reasons). Typical comfortable driving speed tends to be no more than 180 km/h, though if you don't want to have to break and accelerate all the time you probably don't want to go too far beyond 160 km/h.

I won't deny that depending on the time of day and the particular route you may be able to drive 200+ km/h on the Autobahn but talking about the implications of 200 km/h average speed as if it was an even remotely realistic representation is frankly absurd.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#90

Post by vinay427 » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 11:16 AM UTC

rgawdzik wrote: post #54

kybernetikos wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This quote is not very useful as an indicator of the future. Not everything that starts ignored will be laughed at. Not everything that is laughed at will be fought. Not everything that is fought will win. It's not even the majority of things that follow that path.

You are taking the quote too literally. > First they ignore you Tesla Roadster > then they laugh at you http://www.spike.com/video-clips/c3neux/top-gear-reviews-the... > then they fight you Tesla Model S + EV clones > then you win. Tesla Model 3

What are these EV clones that are fighting the Model S? Also, the Model 3 hasn't won anything yet, except a lot of refundable preorders alongside a soon to be expiring tax credit.