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The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

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Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#61

Post by ricardobeat »

huuu wrote: post #44
Yaggo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because why would you use a lot of energy for sensors, insane mode, automatic doors, displays, computers, and so on? Signals electronics (displays, sensors, etc) use so little energy compared to power electronics (the drivetrain system) that it doesn't really matter.

It does matter. 1 W * 1,000,000 cars is still 1 MW. It's like saying a javascript file of 1MB is ok because there are images of 10MB on the same page.

No, it's like saying everyone should cut down their JavaScript files by 1kb to reduce emissions.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#62

Post by trymas »

doctorcroc wrote: post #7

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

TL;DR: IMHO, if nothing will change drastically in battery tech, after 100 years, we will have same problem with EVs as we now have the problem with combustion engines and oil.

IMHO, one of the biggest problems from the tech side (I know that there are many hard problems, but this concerns me the most) is battery manufacturing.

They already have built the gigafactory which produces (or will produce) more batteries (or the power they produce) than the rest factories in the world.

But battery technology must have a breakthrough and probably sooner than most of us think. Currently known lithium reserves will 'support global demand until 2100' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Reserves). Also, very efficient battery recycling and reuse must be further developed.

I hope that in 100 years, we'll discover and develop battery technology which is affordable, ecological (will not deplete Earth's recourses completely), efficient (e.g. power to weight ratio), etc. I know that there is development going for this, but I think it will be a long time until new battery tech will be in our home.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#63

Post by zhte415 »

MrFoof wrote: post #14
jakobegger wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They clearly underestimated the cost of the Model S (it's a luxury car, not a "sporty affordable family car"). But overall their strategy seems to be working out beautifully.

No, I think they changed the strategy somewhat. Who has the best margins in the automotive industry? Porsche. In fact, it's almost always been Porsche since their recovery from the mid-90s. Porsche's margins are so good, investors are complaining that the high-volume Macan is dragging down margins to a "terrible" 16% from their typical 19-20% -- which (the 19-20%) is double what Audi's (#2 for industry margins) margi…

Porsche make an exceptional amount of money from their hedge fund. Their car-production income really should be split from their investment fund operations.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#64

Post by vrfcodf »

trymas wrote: post #62
doctorcroc wrote: post #7

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

TL;DR: IMHO, if nothing will change drastically in battery tech, after 100 years, we will have same problem with EVs as we now have the problem with combustion engines and oil. IMHO, one of the biggest problems from the tech side (I know that there are many hard problems, but this concerns me the most) is battery manufacturing. They already have built the gigafactory which produces (or will produce) more batteries (o…

I agree with you, although it is incorrect to assume that batteries will be always lithium based.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#65

Post by huuu »

ricardobeat wrote: post #61
huuu wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does matter. 1 W * 1,000,000 cars is still 1 MW. It's like saying a javascript file of 1MB is ok because there are images of 10MB on the same page.

No, it's like saying everyone should cut down their JavaScript files by 1kb to reduce emissions.

I don't think you got my point, but yes, cutting down your JavaScript files will reduce emission.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#66

Post by zhte415 »

_ph_ wrote: post #29
jedmeyers wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The is no practical way to service a Tesla yourself or in a 3rd party repair shop, like you can a 15 year old Civic. Therefore used Teslas would quickly become financially disadvantageous to service and their price would approach zero on a secondary market.

Which current production car is easily serviceable at third party repair shops? They are pretty much all closed down computers. Also, most services required on the engine and support for older cars are just not required on a Tesla. So it is not obvious that it would be more expensive to maintain than any other car, most likely the opposite.

My wife has a 9 year old BMW which is servicable at 3rd party shops. Including sensor work and debugging error messages. BMWs are so ubiquitous, perhaps part of the reason.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#68

Post by manmal »

gambiting wrote: post #50
_ph_ wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which current production car is easily serviceable at third party repair shops? They are pretty much all closed down computers. Also, most services required on the engine and support for older cars are just not required on a Tesla. So it is not obvious that it would be more expensive to maintain than any other car, most likely the opposite.

Things are really not as bad as you think. Even in brand new cars you can replace the brakes, suspension, wishbones, dampers, steering column, oil pans, all filters, oil&fuel pumps, service the air conditioning unit and I am reasonably certain you could do full engine maintenance as well. Most importantly, parts for any new vehicle are publicly available, be it a Fiat 500 or a Mercedes S-Class. On the other hand, Tes…

You are correct. We don't know what batteries will cost in 8 years though. They might be as cheap as a used Mercedes engine then.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#69

Post by fab13n »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #45
dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

Beijing has a plate lottery of 150k vehicles this year, 60k of them are dedicated to EVs. Suffice it to say, I've been seeing a lot of new Teslas (the higher end ones) on the road this year in a place that still barely supports the charging infrastructure. I think the Tesla 3 is going to do very nicely in that market given its artificial constraints.

> given its artificial constraints.

Given the lethality of air pollution in Beijing, I'm not sure it's fair to call "artificial" those emission-limiting constraints.

Otherwise, you'll also have to call "artificial" the constraint that one can't shoot/knife/strangle people who go out of their ways to be pains in asses, however genuine and natural the urge might seem :-)

Other than that, yes, China is likely to be a very good market for Tesla, at least until local knock-off become available. I'd actually be surprised if Tesla's worldwide production matched China's demand.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#70

Post by grahamburger »

tdicola wrote: post #22
dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of…

Normal people don't buy new cars.
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