The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006) • Hacker News Board

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#31

Post by BinaryIdiot » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 7:12 AM UTC

tdicola wrote: post #22

dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of…

> I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic

I think you're a bit out of touch. "Few" options? You can get a very, very high end Honda Civic at $30k+, in my opinion. Considering you can get a base Civic for around $16k-$18k, adding on a "few" options isn't going to almost double the price. You have to add quite a few options to get near that $30k number. Or pick a higher end Civic to start with.

> For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door.

First those are big vehicles so yes, obviously they're going to cost more. But $40k to $50k is with many options as well. You can get a base Odyssey between $28k to $30k depending on where you shop. Not everyone adds $10k to $20k in option.s In fact I would be shocked if any majority of customer adds on so many options.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#32

Post by prawn » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 7:13 AM UTC

dionidium wrote: post #26

tdicola wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of…

The median household income is around $50k/yr in the U.S. That's household income. To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so. I'm having trouble finding a median car sale price -- there are a bunch of articles about the average cost of new cars -- but I doubt most families actually are spending that much on transportation. Once you cut out used cars, those without cars, and those spendi…

To the extent people are spending this much, they're insane for doing so.

You have probably already realised this if you've lived on the planet for more than 20ish years, but the majority of people certainly seem to be quite insane.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#33

Post by jsli » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 7:14 AM UTC

harwoodleon wrote: post #25

Elon Musk is the brand investors invest in, not tesla, not spacex. As he says, he is the pot of money - he is the core driver. I personally applaud his bravery, changing the established order is hard and carries great risk. He is the real consortium of products and can shift money between these industries at will. The risk here for all of his companies is that he is building a house of cards, one company collapse cou…

I like the "house of cards" metaphor. After learning how these three companies could help each other in his biography, I think the possibility of collapse is actually pretty low.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#34

Post by prawn » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 7:14 AM UTC

agumonkey wrote: post #21

madads wrote: post #2

As he says in short the masterplan is to: "Build sports car. Use that money to build an affordable car. Use that money to build an even more affordable car. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options. Don't tell anyone."

Trying not to be too much of a fan boy I smiled at the fact that, on its way to develop EV market recognition and infrastructure they made cars that topped anything else in safety and speed. 'if you want to have EV, all you have to do is buy the best cars we just made' kind of.

Agree - it's incredible.

How Time have not managed to throw him Person of the Year yet, I cannot understand. The cars, the solar network and SpaceX. They're huge undertakings.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#35

Post by rvanmil » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 7:16 AM UTC

dionidium wrote: post #19

doctorcroc wrote: post #7

I am a fan of Tesla and am excited for the Model 3, but some of the hype around the car is a bit much. I think this is a good counter-perspective: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/31/tesla-s-mod... Creating an affordable EV at mass consumer scale is a much harder problem than creating a luxury EV at modest volume. However, if there was anyone I would bet on making this work and building an amazing car, i…

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

This car will probably be very popular as a leased company car (at least in The Netherlands). The price is in range for most employees who can lease a car and the tax advantages are huge.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#36

Post by viraptor » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 7:17 AM UTC

tdicola wrote: post #22

dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

> Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. I don't think you've been car shopping much recently. 'Economy' cars like the Honda Civic, Mazda 3, Toyota Camry, etc. can easily push up against $30k with a few options. For some real sticker shock look at minivans, a Honda Odyssey can easily hit $40k-50k out the door. With a five year loan or a three year lease and a bit of…

You're still talking about new cars, rather than what people actually buy. http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/for-sale/?src=14597540479... says you can go well under 20k for a Honda Civic if you don't want a new one.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#37

Post by kybernetikos » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 7:17 AM UTC

rgawdzik wrote: post #3

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Mahatma Gandhi

This quote is not very useful as an indicator of the future. Not everything that starts ignored will be laughed at. Not everything that is laughed at will be fought. Not everything that is fought will win. It's not even the majority of things that follow that path.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#38

Post by cperciva » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 7:18 AM UTC

agf wrote: post #24

dionidium wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One minor counter to this is that you shouldn't get too caught up in the hype about this being a mass-produced car. HN and tech journalism is a bit of a bubble. Normal people do not spend $35-40k on a car. We're still talking about a high-end vehicle. Nobody driving a Model 3 is going to be devastated when it needs to go in the shop.

The average new car price in March 2016 was $33,666. There are plenty of "mass-produced" cars in this price range. http://mediaroom.kbb.com/new-car-transaction-prices-up-2-per...

The average new car price in March 2016 was $33,666.

That's the mean price though, and the price curve has a very long tail. The median is significantly lower.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#39

Post by jvm » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 7:20 AM UTC

Hermel wrote: post #12

JayHost wrote: post #5

I remember their plan is basically how Ford operated. It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. I remember seeing the concept car for the Chevy Volt a few years ago and thinking how cool it was. Then they released it and made it aerodynamic and thus BORING. It's pretty nuts this car is 35k and the list of advantages to disadvantages can be summed as. There's no reason to buy any other car.

>It's just crazy to see them beat the competition so badly. The BMW electric cars (i3 and i8) are quite successful, beating Tesla sales-wise in Germany and selling half as many world-wide. The great weakness of the Tesla S in the German market ist the German autobahn, where it runs out of energy very quickly (after an hour or so for aggressive drivers). The Tesla S is not designed for sustained high speeds.

Surely you have never tried to operate an i3 at 80 MPH, I can assure you it has at most 50 miles range at that speed.

Re: The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (2006)

#40

Post by jsli » Mon, Apr 04, 2016, 7:22 AM UTC

huuu wrote: post #10

Related is Tesla's recycling program of batteries: https://www.teslamotors.com/nl_NL/blog/teslas-closed-loop-ba... Some people are skeptical about electric cars because the estimate life span of a battery is around eight years. But reading the article above (and others) you can see the batteries are not an issue anymore. I was also a little skeptical about electric cars but I think the absolute pros are: * Electricit…

> but in the end environment friendly means: using less energy (in any form).

Is it? I thought it meant no harm to the environment. If the charging station is powered by solar energy, I don't see how using the otherwise wasted energy wrong.