Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky • Hacker News Board

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#101

Post by mangeletti » Sun, Apr 03, 2016, 12:01 AM UTC

oconnore wrote: post #3

Here is the critical section of the article: > What about the workers thrown out of jobs by the new robo-waiters? Many would get new jobs, though the way this would work is often ignored. > Most restaurants would keep longer hours (they're paying for the rent and the robots anyway), meaning many workers would get a raise and change shifts. No, the workers are now fired. They don't get a raise. > The advanced robo-res…

I hereby give you an honorary 1000 karma.

Reading this article disgusted me. I'm not a "republican" or "democrat", or anything else for that matter, but I have some intelligence and sense. Arguing that raising minimum wage will some how lead to more prosperity is the same thing as stating "people with minimum wage jobs currently have prosperity". The minimum is the minimum, no matter how high we raise it. The only thing raising the minimum wage does is punish people like my little brother who worked so hard to get to $14/hr. If minimum wage is raised to $15, he will earn minimum wage again. This means the buying power he has earned over the past 3 years will be lost to those who should be starting where he started 3 years ago. If you don't understand the difference between that and prosperity, then you're an idiot. That's not an ad hominem attack. That's meant in the literal sense.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#102

Post by dragonwriter » Sun, Apr 03, 2016, 12:01 AM UTC

oconnore wrote: post #41

cornholio wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

> You are essentially making the luddite case. I'm not, I'm just countering some "don't worry, everything will be fine" idealism. I don't think we should halt progress, but I do think we should be more intentional about how we go about it. There is not currently a solution on the table to address mass un/under-employment caused by near-term automation. Basic income is thrown around, but even if enacted, does not chan…

People should want to be valued, and people should be motivated to provide value to others via the market. Basic income is a good thing because it preserves this, while at the same time recognizing and mitigating the harms arising from the fact that automation and fluid market conditions make it increasingly likely that success in providing marketable value will both require periodic adjustments and be intermittent for many individuals.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#103

Post by JustSomeNobody » Sun, Apr 03, 2016, 12:03 AM UTC

cornholio wrote: post #22

oconnore wrote: post #3

Here is the critical section of the article: > What about the workers thrown out of jobs by the new robo-waiters? Many would get new jobs, though the way this would work is often ignored. > Most restaurants would keep longer hours (they're paying for the rent and the robots anyway), meaning many workers would get a raise and change shifts. No, the workers are now fired. They don't get a raise. > The advanced robo-res…

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

Does anyone have any economic information on what happened to grocery stores when the scanner was introduced?

Did prices go down? What happened to those workers?

I bet consumers didn't notice any benefits. I bet wait times stayed the same because fewer lines were open. I bet prices didn't go down either.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#104

Post by fizixer » Sun, Apr 03, 2016, 12:04 AM UTC

My response, as a minimum-wage hike supporter, to those CEOs who say "if you raise minimum wage, we'll automate":

"Good! get off your lazy ass and make some technological progress!"

That also means we should raise minimum-wage more often.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#105

Post by rwjwjuwjudf » Sun, Apr 03, 2016, 12:06 AM UTC

fizixer wrote: post #104

My response, as a minimum-wage hike supporter, to those CEOs who say "if you raise minimum wage, we'll automate": "Good! get off your lazy ass and make some technological progress!" That also means we should raise minimum-wage more often.

Yes, if humans are only being used in place of machines because human labor is cheaper, then we should make human labor more expensive.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#106

Post by dragonwriter » Sun, Apr 03, 2016, 12:08 AM UTC

mangeletti wrote: post #101

oconnore wrote: post #3

Here is the critical section of the article: > What about the workers thrown out of jobs by the new robo-waiters? Many would get new jobs, though the way this would work is often ignored. > Most restaurants would keep longer hours (they're paying for the rent and the robots anyway), meaning many workers would get a raise and change shifts. No, the workers are now fired. They don't get a raise. > The advanced robo-res…

I hereby give you an honorary 1000 karma. Reading this article disgusted me. I'm not a "republican" or "democrat", or anything else for that matter, but I have some intelligence and sense. Arguing that raising minimum wage will some how lead to more prosperity is the same thing as stating "people with minimum wage jobs currently have prosperity". The minimum is the minimum, no matter how high we raise it. The only th…

Minimum wage increases, experience has shown, put upward pressure on wages generally. It is not the case that everyone making between the old minimum wage and the new minimum wage ends up at the new minimum after the change.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#107

Post by dragonwriter » Sun, Apr 03, 2016, 12:10 AM UTC

deegles wrote: post #35

cornholio wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

I read somewhere that the amount of people employed in the transportation industry is roughly equal to the tech industry. If 75% or more become redundant, where will they go? Certainly not the restaurant industry... One theory I have about all of the coding "boot camps" popping up is that they are preparing for an exodus of people from the next job sector to be automated/eliminated (auto-lated?).

No, coding boot camps are just capitalizing on the idea that there is a shortcut to the high wages some people earn in the tech industry. It's not "preparing for" anything, it's trying to exploit a present market opportunity.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#108

Post by aianus » Sun, Apr 03, 2016, 12:10 AM UTC

mbfg wrote: post #56

I'm all for raising the minimum wage, temporarily it may help people for several years. The truth is the automation wave is coming quickly regardless of what people are paid. And it's not for just minimum wage jobs. Think about jobs like truck driver where there's probably several million people who count this as their profession in the US. In 10-20 years, that number will probably approach 0. There's a nasty new wor…

> Even if you have a job that is 'automation-proof' or 'automation-resistent' but not an elite, your income will be paltry compared to the super rich class, and thus you will be relegated to the masses.

If my real income goes from $100,000 to $200,000 and the CEO's from $10 million to $100 million, am I worse off than before? Should I be averse to that future? I don't see why...

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#109

Post by coldtea » Sun, Apr 03, 2016, 12:12 AM UTC

marcosdumay wrote: post #85

cornholio wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

And you are essentially repeating the "wealth inequality does not exist" mantra. But it does not matter how many times people repeat, it does not become real. Inequality exists. Those people fired will be out of places to go. Yes, overall people will become richer, those people are an exception.

>Yes, overall people will become richer

That's not a given either. The working masses are many many times more than the business owners in count.

So, while a few business owners can get cheaper with being able to fire part of their employees, those employees will be a bigger number that the business owners who benefited.

As for customers, they'll hardly see any difference (except negative, if they're also part, or their spouse/parents are part, of those workers being fired).

Everybody becoming an entrepreneur is not gonna help either -- there's only so much entrepreneurs a market needs or can support. (It's like everybody becoming an artist with easy access to self-releases on the internet: the end result is not everybody getting into the top of the charts, but, if anything, even those getting there having much fewer listeners that stars did in the past).

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#110

Post by dragonwriter » Sun, Apr 03, 2016, 12:13 AM UTC

kdamken wrote: post #39

cornholio wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

> however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices Except why would that ever happen? If you were a business owner selling widget X, and it suddenly cost you half as much to make that due to automation, you don't pass those savings on to your customers, you celebrate how much better your margins have gotten and how much more profit you're making.

It would happen, assuming a competitive market, because competition drives out economic profit, so that reduced costs mean reduced prices.

Obviously, monopolies are different, but even with a monopoly cost decreases can reduce the price point at which maximum profit is realized.