Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky • Hacker News Board

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#31

Post by atemerev » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:20 PM UTC

Retra wrote: post #14

Pyxl101 wrote: post #12

I've never heard a good argument to justify having a minimum wage. A lot of the people who argue for minimum wages commit the fallacy of the false dichotomy: they think that the choice is between everyone having jobs and getting paid what they're paid now, and everyone having jobs and getting paid more -- they think they can somehow legislate the latter outcome. In reality, what tends to happen when you increase mini…

The "good argument" for having a minimum wage is that without it, wages will be pressured down , because every business on the planet wants wages as low as possible, and they generally have the means to achieve this. It has nothing to do with job creation: it's about having jobs that are not basically slavery. It's for job quality, not quantity. Besides, you're just assuming people should be employed at "fair market…

True, every business on the planet wants wages as low as possible. This is, of course, correct.

On the other hand, every employee on the planet wants her wage to be as high as possible. This is also obviously true.

This creates law of supply and demand. Google can't hire a decent software engineer for, say, $30000/year, because other companies will immediately offer more, and supply of talented software engineers is quite limited, even globally. But unskilled labor can be hired for much cheaper, as supply is nearly limitless.

I don't know, they don't teach this stuff anymore in high school / colleges, or what?

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#32

Post by chillwaves » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:21 PM UTC

Pyxl101 wrote: post #12

I've never heard a good argument to justify having a minimum wage. A lot of the people who argue for minimum wages commit the fallacy of the false dichotomy: they think that the choice is between everyone having jobs and getting paid what they're paid now, and everyone having jobs and getting paid more -- they think they can somehow legislate the latter outcome. In reality, what tends to happen when you increase mini…

Are you saying that business employ an excess of labor? I do not believe this is the case. I understand that higher costs hurt business -- but higher costs come in many forms. Increases in rent, in commodities. But only when the workers ask for more is it unsustainable.

I simply reject the notion that businesses employ excess labor and we will see mass lay offs as a result of the min. wage increase. If this were the case, you could point to Seattle and demonstrate but I do not think you will be able to.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#33

Post by alkonaut » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:22 PM UTC

Minimum wage hikes are tough pills to swallow, but they are a reaction to lack of wage increases over time.

If the lowest wages had followed the s&p or management comp. over the last decades then this would be a non-issue. Weak labor/low organization and the fact that many bought the myth of "trickle down economics" has kept the lowest wages where the 1% wants them.

As for automation: if there are gains from automation they are likely there already. I Mercedes builds cars much differently in the US compared to Germany despite big differences in labor costs.

One difference that is immediately noticeable with high labor costs is not in industry but in services 1) more self-service such as self checkout at grocery store, self-checkin at airport 2) no non-essential services such as greeters, bag-packers, 3) DIY is common

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#34

Post by nxzero » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:22 PM UTC

Automation unless the becomes the norm will never complete replace humans. For example, number of places allow you to place an order via an app, but customer with the awareness and ability to do so will just stand in line waiting. Plentiful amount of additional explains, but the point is customer, not business decide what they want, and customers often herd or group think.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#35

Post by deegles » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:22 PM UTC

cornholio wrote: post #22

oconnore wrote: post #3

Here is the critical section of the article: > What about the workers thrown out of jobs by the new robo-waiters? Many would get new jobs, though the way this would work is often ignored. > Most restaurants would keep longer hours (they're paying for the rent and the robots anyway), meaning many workers would get a raise and change shifts. No, the workers are now fired. They don't get a raise. > The advanced robo-res…

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

I read somewhere that the amount of people employed in the transportation industry is roughly equal to the tech industry. If 75% or more become redundant, where will they go? Certainly not the restaurant industry...

One theory I have about all of the coding "boot camps" popping up is that they are preparing for an exodus of people from the next job sector to be automated/eliminated (auto-lated?).

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#36

Post by chillwaves » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:23 PM UTC

fche wrote: post #19

Retra wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "good argument" for having a minimum wage is that without it, wages will be pressured down , because every business on the planet wants wages as low as possible, and they generally have the means to achieve this. It has nothing to do with job creation: it's about having jobs that are not basically slavery. It's for job quality, not quantity. Besides, you're just assuming people should be employed at "fair market…

"As a business, you are not entitled to a profit. Especially not at the expense of your employees welfare." That's funny, but true. You know what else is at least as true? No people are entitled to employment, especially at a loss to the business.

You think people are not entitled to employment? Are they entitled to survive? Are you going to be the one to break the bad news?

Let's find out what happens when you tell large segments of the population they have no right to a livelihood. I am going to wager the cost to the wealthy will be much higher than an increase in the minimum wage.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#37

Post by redmorphium » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:26 PM UTC

davidiach wrote: post #5

Thought experiment. If the government will start forcing your employer to pay you, lets say 70% more than you currently make beginning next month (if they want to keep you), would you be worried about losing your job? Oh, and let's not forget, nobody else will be allowed to hire you from that point on if they don't pay you at least that amount that your current employer will be forced to pay you from now on.

If I were replaceable by automation, I would be.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#38

Post by Retra » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:26 PM UTC

Pyxl101 wrote: post #26

Retra wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "good argument" for having a minimum wage is that without it, wages will be pressured down , because every business on the planet wants wages as low as possible, and they generally have the means to achieve this. It has nothing to do with job creation: it's about having jobs that are not basically slavery. It's for job quality, not quantity. Besides, you're just assuming people should be employed at "fair market…

You're using an inadequate notion of what a "good argument" is in this context. You have not made an argument for why a price floor is necessary or desirable. I could just as easily say, "The good argument for having a maximum 'price of bread' is that without it, bread prices will be pressured up, because every bakery on the planet wants prices as high as possible, and they generally have the means to achieve it." Yo…

>You have not made an argument for why a price floor is necessary or desirable.

I'm pretty sure that's all I did. Your inability to see that is on you.

>"The good argument for having a maximum 'price of bread' is that without it, bread prices will be pressured up, because every bakery on the planet wants prices as high as possible, and they generally have the means to achieve it." You can say that all you want, but you haven't provided a justification that it's actually true, or that the situation warrants legislation of one interest over the other.

No. You have provided that justification. You just said what the justification for maximum price of bread is. But those businesses don't have the means to achieve maximum bread price. And if bread was being sold for billions of dollars per slice, the price almost certainly would be regulated down. For exactly the arguments you've made: without it bread becomes absurdly expensive.

>The market forces of supply and demand create pressures both up and down on wages, and an equilibrium between them is what allows markets to be efficient.

Efficient at what? Efficient at reaching equilibrium. Not efficient at meeting the goals of society, which involve complex moral and political conditions not captured or measured by any market.

>Equating jobs to slavery is an outrageous argument, and disingenuous.

It is not. Especially with wages being systematically driven down to below what is necessary for survival. The minimum wage was created because there were real problems caused by not having it. Negative wages have existed in a "free" market.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#39

Post by kdamken » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:27 PM UTC

cornholio wrote: post #22

oconnore wrote: post #3

Here is the critical section of the article: > What about the workers thrown out of jobs by the new robo-waiters? Many would get new jobs, though the way this would work is often ignored. > Most restaurants would keep longer hours (they're paying for the rent and the robots anyway), meaning many workers would get a raise and change shifts. No, the workers are now fired. They don't get a raise. > The advanced robo-res…

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

> however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices

Except why would that ever happen? If you were a business owner selling widget X, and it suddenly cost you half as much to make that due to automation, you don't pass those savings on to your customers, you celebrate how much better your margins have gotten and how much more profit you're making.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#40

Post by fauigerzigerk » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:28 PM UTC

unclebucknasty wrote: post #17

Pyxl101 wrote: post #12

I've never heard a good argument to justify having a minimum wage. A lot of the people who argue for minimum wages commit the fallacy of the false dichotomy: they think that the choice is between everyone having jobs and getting paid what they're paid now, and everyone having jobs and getting paid more -- they think they can somehow legislate the latter outcome. In reality, what tends to happen when you increase mini…

It's not surprising that a conservative think tank released a study against the minimum wage. There are also arguments and studies concluding that the minimum wage ultimately creates jobs.

The conservative government here in the UK has put the minimum wage on a steep upward trajectory. This is not a conservative vs left-wing (or liberal as you like to call it) thing.

The more important distinction is between those who keep holding on to paid work as the main or only moral basis for deserved income and the other camp that tries to move away from that principle.

There are conservative, left-leaning and libertarian people on either side of the debate.