Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky • Hacker News Board

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#41

Post by oconnore » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:29 PM UTC

cornholio wrote: post #22

oconnore wrote: post #3

Here is the critical section of the article: > What about the workers thrown out of jobs by the new robo-waiters? Many would get new jobs, though the way this would work is often ignored. > Most restaurants would keep longer hours (they're paying for the rent and the robots anyway), meaning many workers would get a raise and change shifts. No, the workers are now fired. They don't get a raise. > The advanced robo-res…

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

> You are essentially making the luddite case.

I'm not, I'm just countering some "don't worry, everything will be fine" idealism.

I don't think we should halt progress, but I do think we should be more intentional about how we go about it. There is not currently a solution on the table to address mass un/under-employment caused by near-term automation. Basic income is thrown around, but even if enacted, does not change the fact that our culture views work ethic ~= value. People want to be valued.

Choosing not to address it in the next couple of years results in a large number of mostly young, angry, disillusioned people with lots of free time. If you've got a history book handy, you can read plenty about what happens after that.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#42

Post by HillaryBriss » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:30 PM UTC

melling wrote: post #4

How did someone come to this conclusion? "Right now the retirement age is rising from 65 to 67, and most people think it will have to go up to 70. If robots can do a lot of the work instead, we could put it back down to 65 or even to 62 while still growing the economy. " Robots are going to pay the social security tax.

Assuming everything else stays the same, if a swarm of robots enters the economy and starts doing a shit-ton of everyone's work at a tiny cost, then productivity skyrockets and we all start collecting unlimited social security checks starting at age 62.

But everything else won't stay the same.

Consumers will start to demand more from the businesses and governments that use these robots. Businesses that don't get more robots -- or more expensive robots -- will be left behind. Pretty soon the productivity miracle disappears and we all have to work until we're 70, just like before.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#43

Post by TheSpiceIsLife » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:31 PM UTC

enraged_camel wrote: post #27

TheSpiceIsLife wrote: post #11

> Even better, to the extent that we are able to produce everything we need with less labor, we can afford to let people work less. I'm doubtful. From what I've seen it just means that those who do have full time jobs are expected to work more. Why employ two people for 20 hours a week when you can have one person for 40hrs a week? For most industries the managerial and administrative overheads are less with fewer st…

We haven't seen an automation revolution in Australia because the Australian tech sector isn't nearly as developed as that in the US. Consider the fact that we are already seeing an automation revolution in the US with certain types of labor, e.g. driverless cars. Raising federal minimum wage will be like pouring gasoline on that fire.

> We haven't seen an automation revolution in Australia because the Australian tech sector isn't nearly as developed as that in the US.

But we haven't seen an automation revolution in the US either, so I'm not sure what you're saying here. Some sources[2] claim Australian's are early adopters of new technology.

I wouldn't say "we are already seeing" an automation revolution in the US with regard to driverless cars. I'll be reviewing this opinion ever six months though. It certainly looks like there's a race to full automated driverless vehicles, but we're not there yet. Not en mass.

This NPR article[1] shows truck driver is the most common job is most states in the US. Self-driving trucks are going to be disruptive.

1. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-t...

2. http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/9/19/technolog...

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#44

Post by erikpukinskis » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:31 PM UTC

cornholio wrote: post #22

oconnore wrote: post #3

Here is the critical section of the article: > What about the workers thrown out of jobs by the new robo-waiters? Many would get new jobs, though the way this would work is often ignored. > Most restaurants would keep longer hours (they're paying for the rent and the robots anyway), meaning many workers would get a raise and change shifts. No, the workers are now fired. They don't get a raise. > The advanced robo-res…

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

> The human biology and mind is clearly limited, while the progress of machines does not seem to be.

Can you explain what you mean by that? That's not an intuitive idea to me, animals/AIs just seem like two different kinds of machines to me with different computational characteristics, neither of which can fully simulate the other.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#45

Post by thrownaway2424 » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:32 PM UTC

Pyxl101 wrote: post #12

I've never heard a good argument to justify having a minimum wage. A lot of the people who argue for minimum wages commit the fallacy of the false dichotomy: they think that the choice is between everyone having jobs and getting paid what they're paid now, and everyone having jobs and getting paid more -- they think they can somehow legislate the latter outcome. In reality, what tends to happen when you increase mini…

Here you go: the minimum wage exists to depress rents. Rents always rise until tenants are making whatever minimal profits will keep them in business. Enacting a minimum wage law takes money from the landlord and gives it to the workers, at the same level of minimally attractive profit margins.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#46

Post by jrmurad » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:32 PM UTC

chillwaves wrote: post #36

fche wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"As a business, you are not entitled to a profit. Especially not at the expense of your employees welfare." That's funny, but true. You know what else is at least as true? No people are entitled to employment, especially at a loss to the business.

You think people are not entitled to employment? Are they entitled to survive? Are you going to be the one to break the bad news? Let's find out what happens when you tell large segments of the population they have no right to a livelihood. I am going to wager the cost to the wealthy will be much higher than an increase in the minimum wage.

In case this is not obvious to you... to be entitled to employment (or anything) means someone must provide it. If nobody is voluntarily hiring a man, you would force someone to hire him because this man is entitled to employment?

How would you feel if I told you that there's someone I know in need of employment and YOU must hire him? Oh, and if you don't, I'll fine you or lock you up.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#47

Post by atemerev » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:32 PM UTC

chillwaves wrote: post #36

fche wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"As a business, you are not entitled to a profit. Especially not at the expense of your employees welfare." That's funny, but true. You know what else is at least as true? No people are entitled to employment, especially at a loss to the business.

You think people are not entitled to employment? Are they entitled to survive? Are you going to be the one to break the bad news? Let's find out what happens when you tell large segments of the population they have no right to a livelihood. I am going to wager the cost to the wealthy will be much higher than an increase in the minimum wage.

People were never entitled to employment. The very notion of a job as the primary mode of earning one's living was born relatively recently, some 200 years ago (then, it meant mostly manual labor). It survived the transition to information economy, but current AI progress may finally put end to it.

This is as inevitable as the appearance of middle class during the first industrial revolution. The progress cannot be stopped.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#48

Post by tedsanders » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:32 PM UTC

kdamken wrote: post #39

cornholio wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

> however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices Except why would that ever happen? If you were a business owner selling widget X, and it suddenly cost you half as much to make that due to automation, you don't pass those savings on to your customers, you celebrate how much better your margins have gotten and how much more profit you're making.

Competition is one reason. Increased sales volume is a second. Social pressure is a third. It's why we get clean tap water for less money than it would cost someone to bring it by bucket. It's why a gallon of gasoline costs less than the bale of hay equivalent. Regardless of the mechanism, the world is full of examples of technology lowering costs.

Certainly you're correct that not all of the cost savings will be passed on to consumers, but as long as the market is not a zero-price-elasticity monopoly immune to social pressure and government regulation, some savings ought to be passed on.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#49

Post by seabee » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:33 PM UTC

kdamken wrote: post #39

cornholio wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are essentially making the luddite case. The counterargument usually goes like this: yes, people would be fired and there will be serious pain in the short run; however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices, so real wages will go up along with demand and the extra income not spent on, say, buying feed stock for your horse, will go in creating other jobs and economic sectors t…

> however the machines will drastically improve productivity, therefore reduce prices Except why would that ever happen? If you were a business owner selling widget X, and it suddenly cost you half as much to make that due to automation, you don't pass those savings on to your customers, you celebrate how much better your margins have gotten and how much more profit you're making.

True in a monopoly situation, but if you have competition and they can automate like you, there will be a race to the bottom.

Re: Will minimum wage hikes lead to a huge boost in automation? Only if we're lucky

#50

Post by curiousgeorgio » Sat, Apr 02, 2016, 8:33 PM UTC

chillwaves wrote: post #36

fche wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"As a business, you are not entitled to a profit. Especially not at the expense of your employees welfare." That's funny, but true. You know what else is at least as true? No people are entitled to employment, especially at a loss to the business.

You think people are not entitled to employment? Are they entitled to survive? Are you going to be the one to break the bad news? Let's find out what happens when you tell large segments of the population they have no right to a livelihood. I am going to wager the cost to the wealthy will be much higher than an increase in the minimum wage.

Maybe you're confusing (as many do) entitled with having the freedom to do something.

Entitled: believing oneself to be inherently deserving of privileges or special treatment

If I don't qualify in any way for a job at your business, let's find out what you say when I force you to hire me because of an argument that I'm inherently deserving of that job. I'll just sit on my butt all day, and you pay me. Sound good?