First look inside Tesla's gigafactory • Hacker News Board

Re: First look inside Tesla's gigafactory

#21

Post by theoh » Sun, Mar 20, 2016, 1:27 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #19

theoh wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The usual argument that predicts problems with the quality of the batteries is based on Gresham's Law.

How would that apply here?

If batteries gradually lose their capacity over time, it would be in the interest of customers to look for an opportunity to swap an old battery for a new one, and never swap back. Even if Tesla operates the battery swap system fairly, there's a cost associated with this because they end up holding the bad/old batteries.

Typically, though, the argument is that both customers and dealers will hang on to valuable good "money" (batteries) and thus the batteries likely to be exchanged will be of low quality.

So the model you describe is one in which each customer just alternates between a few batteries that essentially belong to them. It should address the quality problem, but at the expense of complicating the business of the battery depot. Treating batteries as a non-fungible commodity is a big step.

Re: First look inside Tesla's gigafactory

#22

Post by mikeash » Sun, Mar 20, 2016, 4:46 PM UTC

theoh wrote: post #21

mikeash wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would that apply here?

If batteries gradually lose their capacity over time, it would be in the interest of customers to look for an opportunity to swap an old battery for a new one, and never swap back. Even if Tesla operates the battery swap system fairly, there's a cost associated with this because they end up holding the bad/old batteries. Typically, though, the argument is that both customers and dealers will hang on to valuable good…

I see why this would happen in a hypothetical scenario where batteries are shared freely and people just pick new ones up at will, but that's not what we're discussing.

The only potential for trouble I see with Tesla's actual setup is people abusing the loaner batteries during their trip. And the batteries are so difficult to abuse I don't think it's a real problem.

Re: First look inside Tesla's gigafactory

#23

Post by theoh » Sun, Mar 20, 2016, 6:10 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #22

theoh wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If batteries gradually lose their capacity over time, it would be in the interest of customers to look for an opportunity to swap an old battery for a new one, and never swap back. Even if Tesla operates the battery swap system fairly, there's a cost associated with this because they end up holding the bad/old batteries. Typically, though, the argument is that both customers and dealers will hang on to valuable good…

I see why this would happen in a hypothetical scenario where batteries are shared freely and people just pick new ones up at will, but that's not what we're discussing. The only potential for trouble I see with Tesla's actual setup is people abusing the loaner batteries during their trip. And the batteries are so difficult to abuse I don't think it's a real problem.

"What we're discussing" is a system which is not in the end being rolled out, but Tesla, at an early stage, did mention precisely the issues I brought up.

There was to be the option to keep a newer battery received in a swap (for a fee) but also, somehow, always the possibility of getting your original battery back. How that would actually work if the original battery is in someone else's car half way across the country is left as an exercise!

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2013/06/21/tesla-90...

Re: First look inside Tesla's gigafactory

#24

Post by mikeash » Sun, Mar 20, 2016, 9:05 PM UTC

theoh wrote: post #23

mikeash wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see why this would happen in a hypothetical scenario where batteries are shared freely and people just pick new ones up at will, but that's not what we're discussing. The only potential for trouble I see with Tesla's actual setup is people abusing the loaner batteries during their trip. And the batteries are so difficult to abuse I don't think it's a real problem.

"What we're discussing" is a system which is not in the end being rolled out, but Tesla, at an early stage, did mention precisely the issues I brought up. There was to be the option to keep a newer battery received in a swap (for a fee) but also, somehow, always the possibility of getting your original battery back. How that would actually work if the original battery is in someone else's car half way across the coun…

They mentioned them in the context of how they're solved, though.

Gresham's Law is about things which are fungible in some contexts but not others. If Tesla charges you a fee to keep your borrowed battery then they're never fungible so it doesn't apply.

How it works to always get your original battery back seems obvious to me: they don't put it in other people's cars, they hold on to it for you. If you decide to keep the newer battery, then your original is no longer yours, and you can't get it back anymore.

This whole thing seems like a lot of fuss about problems which are pretty easily solved, and are solved.

Re: First look inside Tesla's gigafactory

#25

Post by greglindahl » Sun, Mar 20, 2016, 9:19 PM UTC

theoh wrote: post #23

mikeash wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see why this would happen in a hypothetical scenario where batteries are shared freely and people just pick new ones up at will, but that's not what we're discussing. The only potential for trouble I see with Tesla's actual setup is people abusing the loaner batteries during their trip. And the batteries are so difficult to abuse I don't think it's a real problem.

"What we're discussing" is a system which is not in the end being rolled out, but Tesla, at an early stage, did mention precisely the issues I brought up. There was to be the option to keep a newer battery received in a swap (for a fee) but also, somehow, always the possibility of getting your original battery back. How that would actually work if the original battery is in someone else's car half way across the coun…

As the article you point to says, the temporary packs would be owned by Tesla. So no, your original battery wouldn't be in someone else's car.

Contrast this with the battery swap strategy of Better Place, in which car owners don't own batteries.