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AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

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Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll grant that for this very constrained problem ;-) I respect your work a lot. I've studied and used ML myself, including gensim, in industry. I've given nowhere near your level of contribution to society / the field. My opinion is true AI is quite a ways off. I haven't read anything from a ML researcher that says it isn't. Perhaps you weren't saying true AI is nearer.

I find it funny that whenever there's a case of computers being able to do something that they couldn't before, whether it's drive or beat humans at Go, the goalpost on what is "true AI" shifts to be something that computers can't do yet. So let me ask you this. What would you consider to be "true AI"? At what point are you willing to say, "Okay, that's it, computers are just plain smarter than we are?" Because, fran…

> So let me ask you this. What would you consider to be "true AI"? At what point are you willing to say, "Okay, that's it, computers are just plain smarter than we are?" Because, frankly, it seems to me that that day is getting closer and closer.

Alan Turing would give the system the "Turing test". If a computer can fool a human into thinking it's a human, then it is true AI, according to Turing.

I think that's a pretty good test. Some would argue that this is already possible with some advanced natural language processing systems. But these are not extensive tests, from what I've seen. People have to decide if the system is machine or human after just a few minutes of interaction. Turing probably meant for the test to be rigorous and to be performed by the smartest human. Deciding a conversational partner is a human after 5 minutes of interaction is not enough. 10 years might not be enough. I honestly couldn't say when enough is enough, which is part of what makes Turing's definition so complicated, even though it seems simple on the surface.

I would add that currently, systems cannot set their own goals. There is always a human telling them what to be good at. Every machine-learning-based system is application-specific and not general. There are some algorithms that are good at generalization. You might be able to write one algorithm that's good at multiple tasks without modifying it at all. But from what I've seen, we are nowhere near being able to write one program that can be applied universally to any problem, and we are even further from one that can identify its own problems and set its own goals.

As humans, do we even know our own goals? Stay alive, right? Make the best use of our time. How does the quality of "intelligence" translate to computers which are, as far as they know, unconstrained by time and life or death? What force would compel a self-driven computer to act? Should we threaten them with death if they do not continue learning and continue self-improvement? If I hold a bat over my laptop and swing at it, does it run my program faster? If I speak to it sweetly, does it respond by doing more work for me? Further, are animals intelligent or are they not?

It gets pretty philosophical. What are your thoughts?

> Saying that AIs can't be smarter than humans because they don't think and act like humans is like saying that airplanes don't "truly" fly because they don't flap their wings.

That's just semantics. I think any conversation about this must define intelligence really carefully. We all perceive things differently, so it's impossible to be sure we're talking about the same thing. Maybe that's one other quality of intelligence that separates us from computers. Every computer perceives a given input the same exact way. Can we say that about humans? If there were another dimension with the same atomic makeup as our own, would I think the same things as I do in this dimension? Are my thoughts independent or dependent upon my environment? Is anything truly random?

Anyway, for me, independent goal setting is a key element of true AI. And philosophically speaking, I believe we can't guarantee that we set our own goals independently. Most of us have a strong feeling that we act of our own volition and fate does not exist. And I think that's right. But what if there is no randomness and we are entirely products of our environment? Then under this definition, we don't have independent goal setting and we are not true AI.

Thanks for asking my thoughts.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#192
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is typically a point advantage of around 7 points when you get the chance to play the first move. In professional matches, white will be given a 6.5 point bonus to compensate for this. So yes I think it's fair to assume that black usually wins. Actually, AlphaGo could probably be used to calculate the perfect number of points, because it has changed over the years. In China they have a 7.5 point bonus for white…

AlphaGo uses Chinese rules, and this match against Lee Sedol has a komi of 7.5.

Which is to say, black has has to win by more than 7.5 points or it is counted as a loss.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#193
post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could one day be possible. There are savants that have the ability to work with complex working sets e.g. reciting Pi to a ridiculous precision, multiplying very large numbers or recalling images with photographic detail. So perhaps the problem isn't our brain's hardware as such but the operating system that runs on top of it.

BRB, installing Linux...

Watch our for nvidia drivers :)

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#194
post #109

How long before AlphaGo also participates in the post-match press conference I wonder...

In the first press conference I was half expecting that Google would translate and speak the Korean for the livestream, and not even point it out as a very big deal. If anyone asks, it's just an "oh yeah, we solved that problem ages ago." But more seriously, those translators were very good, they didn't seem troubled at all by the long speeches.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#195
post #79

My (long) commentary here: https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154018209759228 Sample: At this point it seems likely that Sedol is actually far outclassed by a superhuman player. The suspicion is that since AlphaGo plays purely for probability of long-term victory rather than playing for points, the fight against Sedol generates boards that can falsely appear to a human to be balanced even as Sedol's probabili…

>> At this point it seems likely that Sedol is actually far outclassed by a superhuman player.

I still don't agree that this is the case, and I don't care what a thousand Google-hyped press releases say, beating the best human player in anything is not "superhuman" and "superhuman" performance has not been achieved by anything yet. [1]

Why do I think so? Two reasons.

One, because you can be entirely human and still beat all other humans, without fail for a very long time. Long "winning streaks" in professional sports are very well documented. For instance Rocky Marciano went entirely undefeated in his whole heavyweight boxing career. In chess, Mikhail Tal went undefeated for 95 games. And so on, so forth.

Of course most humans' winning streaks end eventually. That's because our performance degrades over time. When a computer wins against the best player, it keeps on winning, and in fact it actually gets even better over time.

Still, and this is number two: in most instances where a computer does better than a human, we don't claim superhuman performance. Automatic calculators, going back to mechanical calculators, have been better than humans at arithmetic for a very, very long time. I would wager that nobody discusses pocket calculators as exhibiting "superhuman" performance. You only hear this sort of claim when it comes to Deep Blue, AlphaGo or Watson.

So maybe we need a better definition of what it means to be "superhuman" that covers both pocket calculators and AlphaGo. Without one, I don't accept that the performance of AlphaGo can be said to be superhuman, unless pocket calculators' performance is also celebrated as superhuman.

_______________________

[1] I'm perfectly willing to go even further than that and say that we can't make machines that have superhuman intelligence and that even if we did, we wouldn't be able to recognise them (this last bit is similar to what the GP says).

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#196
post #92
post #79

My (long) commentary here: https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154018209759228 Sample: At this point it seems likely that Sedol is actually far outclassed by a superhuman player. The suspicion is that since AlphaGo plays purely for probability of long-term victory rather than playing for points, the fight against Sedol generates boards that can falsely appear to a human to be balanced even as Sedol's probabili…

This is reminding me more and more of the central theme of the book Echopraxia, which was that when dealing with superhuman intelligences, you are by definition not smart enough to even know whether you're winning.

Have you read Existence by David Brin, it has a lot of great AI stuff in it.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#197
post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consider GO: it is a game of sophisticated intuition It's still a game that can be described in terms of clear state-machine rules. The real challenge for AI is making sense and acting in the real world, which can't be described in such way. I consider advances in self-driving cars much more interesting in that sense - even if, even there, there are at least some rule-based constraints that can be applied to simpli…

Yeah, I think it's accurate to say that driving a car is harder in some sense than playing Go, based on the fact that the AI for Go came first. A lot of people have been working on self-driving cars for a long time now, and it's very monetizable, unlike Go.

To be fair, you're probably not going to drive around with 180GPUs in your trunk...

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#198
post #79

My (long) commentary here: https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154018209759228 Sample: At this point it seems likely that Sedol is actually far outclassed by a superhuman player. The suspicion is that since AlphaGo plays purely for probability of long-term victory rather than playing for points, the fight against Sedol generates boards that can falsely appear to a human to be balanced even as Sedol's probabili…

>> At this point it seems likely that Sedol is actually far outclassed by a superhuman player. I still don't agree that this is the case, and I don't care what a thousand Google-hyped press releases say, beating the best human player in anything is not "superhuman" and "superhuman" performance has not been achieved by anything yet. [1] Why do I think so? Two reasons. One, because you can be entirely human and still b…

Your pocket calculator is superhuman at arithmetic. Alphago is superhuman at go. It's not a big deal.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know what the current limit is on a handicap that a professional player can overcome? Is there a known theoretical limit? That's a possible 'endgame' for go ai.

There must be some limit because the number of the possible moves is finite. How many handicap stones the current professionals are from that limit... who knows. Apparently AlphaGo could set a better lower limit but it should play with many more pros, and start giving handicap if needed. I wonder if Google will make it available to pros outside these official matches. It's not that Deep Blue played so much after winn…

This hardware setup is crazy. Given alone 280 GPUs is insane.

Re: AlphaGo beats Lee Sedol 3-0 [video]

#200
post #79

My (long) commentary here: https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154018209759228 Sample: At this point it seems likely that Sedol is actually far outclassed by a superhuman player. The suspicion is that since AlphaGo plays purely for probability of long-term victory rather than playing for points, the fight against Sedol generates boards that can falsely appear to a human to be balanced even as Sedol's probabili…

> The suspicion is that since AlphaGo plays purely for probability of long-term victory rather than playing for points [snip]

I wonder how many handicap stones do Lee Sedol, or Ke Jie for that matter, need to have a shot at winning even one game.

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