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AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

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Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are confusing utility functions with intelligence. All AIs need utility functions. An AI without a utility function would just do nothing. It would have no reason to beat Atari games, because it wouldn't get any reward for doing so. Even humans have utility functions. For example, we get rewards for having sex, or eating food, or just making social relationships with other humans. Or we have negative rein…

>> I think you are confusing utility functions with intelligence. No, what I'm really saying is that you can't have an autonomous agent that needs to be told what to do all the time. In machine learning, we train algorithms by giving them examples of what we want them to learn, so basically we tell them what to learn. And if we want them to learn something new, we have to train them again, on new data. Well, that's n…

Machine learning doesn't "need to be told what to do all the time". No one told alphaGo what strategies were the best. It figured that out on it's own, by playing against itself.

There is also unsupervised and semi-supervised learning, which can take advantage of unlabelled data. Even supervised learning can work really well on weakly labelled data. E.g. taking pictures from the internet and using the words that occur next to them as labels. As opposed to hiring a person to manually label all of them.

I don't know what situation you are imagining that would make the AI "come back and cry". You will need to give an example.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I just flipped a coin and got heads. I'll probably get heads again on the next flip Which is corrrect, if you don't know the true probability of flipping heads. You might find, for example, that it's a trick coin with two heads and no tails. You absolutely can predict future progress from past progress. E.g. Moore's law held true for decades after the observation was made. If you see a technology advancing rapidly,…

No, not if you have a strong prior belief that coins in general are fair. By your logic, you can predict the failure of AGI predictions by past failures of (every) AGI prediction.

>No, not if you have a strong prior belief

Why would you have a strong prior belief about the invention of AGI? Now you are claiming to have far more certainty than I am.

>By your logic, you can predict the failure of AGI predictions by past failures of (every) AGI prediction.

This logic is extremely flawed. First not every prediction was wrong. Many people predicted it would happen in 2045, a few in 2030.

Second there's no reason past predictions represent the accuracy of future predictions about the same thing. Predictions should get more accurate over time, and early predictions are expected to be wildly wrong.

And third there's anthropic bias. If they were right, then we wouldn't be here to speculate about it. We can only ever observe negative outcomes, therefore observing a negative outcome shouldn't update your priors at all.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#563

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what you are trying to say. I'm making an observation that whenever AI beats a milestone, there are a bunch of pessimists that come out and say "but obviously X was beatable by stupid algorithms. I will beleive AI is making progress when it beats Y!" Those arguments absolutely are wrong. For one thing it's classic hindsight bias. When you make a wrong prediction, you should update your model, not come up…

I said exactly what I said. Calling out "moving the goalposts" does not refute the assertion that this does not get us nontrivially closer to AGI. Whenever AI beats a milestone, there are a bunch of over-optimists that come out and make predictions about AGI. They have been wrong over and over again over the course of half a century. It's classic hindsight bias.

Yes it does! If you keep changing what you consider "AI", every time it makes progress, then it looks like we are never getting closer to AI. When in fact it is just classic moving goalposts.

And the optimists are being proven right. AGI is almost here.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't comment on Go, but with simpler games like Othello it's fairly apparent when your opponent is A.I. driven or human driven, in how they try to move the board position. Even against expert human players.

The AI yesterday played just like a human. You could not tell the human from the AI just based on the moves. That was amazing.

During the second game it made a move that was decidedly not human (which helped lead to the win later):

https://youtu.be/l-GsfyVCBu0?t=1h18m15s

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#565
post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

think of it this way: The search space for chess is much smaller, so we can lean very heavily on brute forcing in our A.I. implementations. The search space for Go is much larger, so while brute force searches are critical in tight fighting, and in endgame play, something more has to happen to play go well in the middle game. Chess fell to a much earlier generation of A.I. While Go held out until A.I. as a field had…

Agreed. The part I object to is the unqualified statement that go requires a high degree of intuition, whereas chess doesn't. As humans play the game, I think it's safe to say that this is generally inaccurate. Both games, for humans, rely very heavily a high degree of intuition. I would tend to agree that there is something interesting and new at work here, though, in that computers didn't get better than humans at…

In the video for the second match, a Google employee mentions that a neural net they call the policy net (trained on a large sample of historical games) provides intuitive moves, while another NN evaluates board strength. They apply the policy net to find multiple interesting moves, then continue to apply the net to anticipate the opponents moves to generate a tree of possible moves. It then just settles on which move to make that gives it the best odds of winning

Starts at 42:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-GsfyVCBu0

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#566

The funny thing about AI at this scale is we don't really know why the computer does what it does. It's more of a inductive extrapolation that we can verify that a technique works for a small problem, so we'll throw a whole bunch of GPU power and data at it and it SHOULD work for a big problem. How it actually works is fuzzy though as there's just a couple of gigabytes of floats representing weights in neural network…

Seems to be similar for intuition in humans–some moves just feel right, and they're the result of thousands of hours of experience. You can justify it afterwards, but the intuition itself usually comes first.

The AI google designed is architected similarly to how the brain works in dual process theory: you have a NN providing intuition like system 1 and a supervisor much like system 2 which double checks system 1

https://youtu.be/l-GsfyVCBu0?t=52m10s

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#567

Earlier quoted context omitted.

remember that chess is a war game and that war is most often fought over resources and territory, so they had their "chess" alright.

The story of Chess, according to Iranian mythological sources (recounted in Shahnameh) is that it was presented to the Iranian Court by the emissaries of the Indian Court, as a 'semantic puzzle' invented by Indian sages. (These games, it should be noted, were pedagogical in nature and used as symbolic means of training monarchs by the intellectual elites.) The response of the Iranian sages was the invention of Backga…

The origin is unclear. The fact that the thematic of a game of war is prevailing now, to me means that it might have as well been in the beginning. Actually it shows at least that those semantics are relevant to war, and to live, so what I was saying stands.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#568
post #441

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What kind of source do you want? It's a saying in the go community, people believed (including me) that a bot couldn't beat a human in our lifetime, some people had more extreme view and thought that it would never be possible.

Anything written. I'll be particularly happy with higher "quality" sources -- books, quotations in newspapers, etc. -- but honestly, I'm not that picky and will accept an anonymous comment on a random forum.

"Experts had predicted it would take another decade for AI systems to beat professional Go players."

http://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/03/have-we-hit-a-major-ar...

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#569

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> I think you are confusing utility functions with intelligence. No, what I'm really saying is that you can't have an autonomous agent that needs to be told what to do all the time. In machine learning, we train algorithms by giving them examples of what we want them to learn, so basically we tell them what to learn. And if we want them to learn something new, we have to train them again, on new data. Well, that's n…

Machine learning doesn't "need to be told what to do all the time". No one told alphaGo what strategies were the best. It figured that out on it's own, by playing against itself. There is also unsupervised and semi-supervised learning, which can take advantage of unlabelled data. Even supervised learning can work really well on weakly labelled data. E.g. taking pictures from the internet and using the words that occu…

>> Machine learning doesn't "need to be told what to do all the time". No one told alphaGo what strategies were the best.

Of course they did. They trained it with examples of Go games and they also programmed it with a reward function that led it to select the winning games. Otherwise, it wouldn't have learned anything useful.

>> There is also unsupervised and semi-supervised learning, which can take advantage of unlabelled data.

Sure, but unsupervised learning is useless for learning specific behaviours. You use it for feature discovery and data exploration. As to semi-supervised learning, it's "semi" supervised: it learns its own features, then you train it with labels so that it learns a mapping from those features it discovered to the classes you want it to output.

>> I don't know what situation you are imagining that would make the AI "come back and cry"

That was an instance of humour [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humour

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#570
post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anything written. I'll be particularly happy with higher "quality" sources -- books, quotations in newspapers, etc. -- but honestly, I'm not that picky and will accept an anonymous comment on a random forum.

It seems unlikely that a computer will be programmed to drub a strong human player any time soon, Dr. Reiss said. ''But it's possible to make an interesting amount of progress, and the problem stays interesting,'' he said. ''I imagine it will be a juicy problem that people talk about for many decades to come.'' [1] Not quite what you are after, but it's pretty clear that he didn't think it would be beating the world…

That was before companies like Google were building datacenter-size computers for fun.
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