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AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

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Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#341

Post by wrsh07 »

Eliezer wrote: post #78
Teodolfo wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of the people saying not to worry ALSO predicted AlphaGo. So let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[Citation needed.] I for one did not say to not worry, and I bet $1500 vs. $2250 on Sedol winning the match before getting cold feet and arbing my outstanding bets down to $400 vs. $700.

Can't you just look at the creators of the program? Demis says he certainly does not worry about a "terminator" or "ex machina" style scenario and also predicted they would win: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34266425

Beyond that, it seems reasonable to call for discussion about how AI is used [as he also does in that article].

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#342

Post by sdenton4 »

GolDDranks wrote: post #263
mafribe wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Play strength scales roughly with the log of computing power The rumor I have heard is that the new Deep Mind learning algorithm really improves on this and scales linearly with computing power.

The game itself, however, scales exponentially, and there's nothing to do about that, so if you enlargen the board, no computer... And no human may be able to play it well. The achivement was a leap towards the human level of play (and quite possibly over it). There might be additional leaps, which will take AIs WAY beyond humans, but none of those will scale linearily in the end. (And yeah, I guess you didn't want t…

Branch and bound my friend, branch and bound. If you can build an awesome bounding function, even exponentially large spaces can be manageable.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#343

Post by [deleted] »

hacker_9 wrote: post #332
afc wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This looks like a good example of the Normalcy bias logical fallacy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias That previous constraints have been beaten in no way supports the argument that we will beat the laws of physics this time.

Our brains use roughly ~20 watts though, so we know that the power constraints can be overcome, if not in silicon then it may be biological machines we use in the future.

[deleted]

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#344

Post by talles »

pixl97 wrote: post #314
Vraxx wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's based on the assumption that computing must exist as silicon transistors. When would we have reached the bounds of computation based on physical limits if we had stuck with vacuum tubes. The point is computation is an abstract concept and not tied to the physical medium that we use.

>The point is computation is an abstract concept and not tied to the physical medium that we use. That's not exactly true https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limits_to_computation

Of course there are physical constraints on computing, but measuring by weight is rather stupid. Measuring the energy consumption seems to be a way better metric (even though "computation per energy" is clearly a human win).

Not to mention that we suddenly forgot that computers have their own units of measurement, such as clock speed (hertz) and memory size (bytes).

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#345

Post by PascalsMugger »

anonaoeu wrote: post #100
jonbaer wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would bet a mix of both. What will be more interesting is if it ends at 5-0 if we will see AlphaGo vs. Darkforest (Facebook's engine) soon after.

Facebook's Go engine is not remotely close to competing with AlphaGo. In fact, it's about comparable to the pre-existing top Go programs; the only newsworthy thing about it is that it's from Facebook and it uses neural nets.

Since AlphaGo's architecture was published in nature, wouldn't it be somewhat straightforward to reproduce something similar to it given the resources of Facebook and an already existing team of people tackling Go? I would expect other Go software to quickly follow in AlphaGo's footsteps and then build on it, perhaps surpass it by adding some different optimizations.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#346

Post by econnors »

awwducks wrote: post #21
dwaltrip wrote: post #8

This is my generation's Gary Kasparov vs. Deep Blue. In many ways, it is more significant. Several top commentators were saying how AlphaGo has improved noticeably since October. AlphaGo's victory tonight marks the moment that go is no longer a human dominated contest. It was a very exciting game, incredible level of play. I really enjoyed watching it live with the expert commentary. I recommend the AGA youtube chann…

Yep, terrific commentary by Myungwan Kim 9p on the AGA channel. For the folks who aren't as familiar with the game, how did you find the commentary (for any channel)? What would you be interested in hearing for events like these?

I really enjoyed the deepmind channel, but it's too long for me to enjoy in its entirety. I think a 15 minute video recapping the game and its crucial strategic moments would be fascinating.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#348

Post by stromgo »

gjm11 wrote: post #183
moonshinefe wrote: post #147

Can someone explain why this is more impressive than a computer beating top chess players over a decade ago? I'm not very familiar with Go, and while there were far more squares on a Go board, it seems less sophisticated than chess to me. Maybe Go has way more moves possible and emergent strategies or something I'm not taking into account.

Here's a way to measure the sophistication of a game of skill. Consider two players A and Z. A is a ten-year-old who has just been told the rules; Z is God. Now, in between them, put a series of other players B, ..., Y, where B beats A 2/3 of the time, C beats B 2/3 of the time, ..., Z beats Y 2/3 of the time. (We assume God doesn't use his magical divine powers to cheat by, e.g., making Y play bad moves.) Unfortunat…

> In go, beating someone 2/3 of the time corresponds to being about one kyu/dan rank stronger

This isn't true. One kyu/dan rank stronger means being 1 stone stronger (so winning 50% of the time when playing White with reverse komi). In practice this may correspond to winning 2/3 of the time with normal komi for high dan players, but that doesn't hold for low kyu players. A 29k has maybe a 51% chance of winning against a 30k because both will make huge mistakes. So although the 29k can score on average 13-15 more points than the 30k in a given game, this advantage is swamped by the large standard deviation of scores in beginner games, turning the win/loss outcome into essentially a coin flip.

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#349

Post by s_kilk »

PascalsMugger wrote: post #334
s_kilk wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's pretty cool. I wonder how it would deal with a teddy bear or stray piece of underwear in the pile of towels?

I look forward to a future when the only remaining occupation is hotel maid.

But, who's going to stay in the hotels? Will the robotic occupants even need towels folded? ;)

Re: AlphaGo beats the world champion Lee Sedol in first of five matches

#350

Post by zeven7 »

Radim wrote: post #161
jonah wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was live streamed and the archive is now up on The Official AGA Youtube Channel at: AlphaGo ?p vs Lee Sedol 9p, 0400 UTC (8pm PST)[1] [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZugVil2v4w

Many thanks! I checked their youtube channel many times during the game, hoping they would cast this, as I found the Redmond commentary a little too shallow. I don't understand how the AGA live stream didn't appear there for me?!

It took them an hour or two before they even got started, so you might not have checked late enough in the match.
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