Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars • Hacker News Board

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#221

Post by pcarolan » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 9:05 PM UTC

loopbit wrote: post #95

pcarolan wrote: post #70

This sounds a lot like the open vs closed system debate we had/(have?) with computers. I'm glad that in my youth I could wrench on the internals of a PC and I'm glad that in my 30s I never have to because my Mac 'just works'. Also, this debate is older than I am: http://www.amazon.com/Zen-Art-Motorcycle-Maintenance-Inquiry...

If you had read Zen and the art of motorcycle maintenance you'd known that it has very little to do with actual motorcycle maintenance, apart of using it as a tool to make its point.

Dust off your copy and go reread it under a tree.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#222

Post by nkurz » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 9:07 PM UTC

qume wrote: post #200

jjawssd wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you please clarify where your numbers are coming from and what they are referencing

They come from my keyboard, just above the QWERTYUIOP keys. They are referencing currency.

What 'jjawssd' was actually asking was an explanation of the math you used to come up with those particular numbers. He's doubting that you could pay for the gas using the interest on $30K. While you do have a point that one should pay attention to the 'cost of money', it also seems possible that you were neglecting to account for the withdrawals to purchase gas along the way.

10,000 gallons of gas in 20 years equates to about 40 gallons per month. At $2/gallon, this is $80 per month. If you plug these into a compound interest calculator (https://www.investor.gov/tools/calculators/compound-interest...) with -$80 for the monthly addition, you find that at a 3.25% APR you can pay for your gas and still have the principal remaining at the end.

3.25% is currently higher than you can find for any US bank account, but as you say, there are definitely places in the world where this is possible. At 1% (still high by US current standards), you'd have $15,000 of your principal left at the end --- a $5,000 difference from not receiving any interest. Worth considering, but not too likely to be a deciding factor.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#223

Post by AnthonyMouse » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 9:07 PM UTC

tamana wrote: post #219

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is service by third party mechanics really the dominant factor in creating lemons, and not design or manufacturing defects or abusive driving by previous owners?

Tesla can offer a stronger warranty if they know more about the cars' life. The car is full of sensors.

If they offer a stronger warranty they don't need to prevent service by third party mechanics, because nobody is going to pay a third party mechanic to do service the manufacturer would do for free under warranty.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#224

Post by tamana » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 9:07 PM UTC

brandmeyer wrote: post #29

> A lot of Tesla fans claim that electric vehicles are inherently superior, because with fewer moving parts, they'll be able to stay on the road basically forever - no piston rings to wear, no transmissions to fail, no oil to change. There are at least two major components that "wear out" in power electronics - capacitors and power transistors. Traditional vacuum-impregnated motor winding insulation also has a wear-o…

How many years (or electrons) is "long-lived"? There is a wide range of finite numbers, some are practically infinite, dominated by other factors (cumulative risk of totalling the car in a crash, change in road or passenger compartment design,...)

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#225

Post by ZeroGravitas » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 9:09 PM UTC

qume wrote: post #13

This is a good place to share this with geeks who may not be into cars: I drive a 1994 Mercedes (W124 chassis). One of the most reliable cars ever made. Simple to repair yourself. A TON of info available online for anything you could want to fix. Pretty much (probably 100%) of all parts on the car are available super cheap as chinese replacements because the model was around for so long and so many of them are still…

The world is going to make a lot more new cars over the next few decades, millions upon millions of them. They can either be new electric cars or new ICE cars. The former is better for the environment.

Yes, bikes, mopeds, taxis, busses and trains would be more efficient than cars in many places, and electric versions of those are better for the environment too. (Special addendum defending electric bikes: the assumption here is that they displace car journeys not non-electric bike journeys.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#226

Post by greenyoda » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 9:09 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #141

MagnumOpus wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10k gallons costs you $18,000 or less right now "while gas is cheap" - for a TCO of $20,000 in 20 years (plus cheap-ish repairs) - and you are driving a Merc. The model 3 (once you can actually get hold of it) will cost you $35,000 up front, plus about $7,000 in electricity for 200k miles at prices of 13-15c/kWh, plus about two battery replacements - battery lifetime is 8 years or 125k miles - at $10,000ish a pop - f…

I just filled up yesterday and gas was 2.89$ a gallon. Where exactly is it 1.80?

$1.89 last week in NYC, where we have the highest gas taxes in the country (42.4 cents/gal[1]). So gas is probably around $1.60 across the river in NJ.

[1] http://www.newyorkgasprices.com/Tax_Info.aspx

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#227

Post by castratikron » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 9:14 PM UTC

usaphp wrote: post #191

ryandrake wrote: post #45

One of the things that makes a car valuable is having a healthy aftermarket. It looks like, from this article anyway, Tesla is doing anything they can to make sure there is no aftermarket for their vehicles. To me, a car that you can't service yourself is worthless. A car that needs the manufacturer's permission to activate is not your car--it's owned by the manufacturer. And, when the manufacturer places a threateni…

But think about it from another perspective: someone purchases Tesla car, decided to service it himself without sufficient knowledge, then later he resells his car to another individual, the person who buys his car enables the autopilot mode on a car and because of the poor service quality/mistake the original owner did to a car the autopilot goes crazy and steers your car into a brick wall, everyone will blame Tesla…

But you can say that about any kind of car, not just Teslas. You could have a guy fiddle with critical system X of a car (maybe suspension or steering) that if done incorrectly could endanger the lives of several people. How do you ensure that a used car is safe to drive? This is a solved problem: you bring the car to a professional mechanic and have him inspect the car, or inspect it yourself if you have the right knowledge. For a Tesla it would be no different; for the case of autopilot a mechanic might inspect all of the sensors (I'm sure Tesla has a utility program for doing this) and then flash the stock firmware onto the car.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#228

Post by awqrre » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 9:19 PM UTC

bane wrote: post #15

awqrre wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There should also be an easy way to disconnect your car from the network, because apparently, newer cars are always connected and reporting on your activities[1]. 1. http://www.businessinsider.com/ford-exec-gps-2014-1

Or visa-versa, let me tap into that data connection for free for internet access.

Most people probably would choose that option then, but either way, you should have to opt-in for the data sharing (whether or not it includes free Internet or other services...):

Example: 1. Do you want to share data with us?* 2. Do you want to share data with us and get free Internet?* 3. Do you want to share data with us and get a free service service that requires data sharing (ie: ads as you drive past businesses)?* 4. None of the above.

* Position, speed, microphone, car weight, Wi-Fi devices detected, etc..

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#229

Post by cperciva » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 9:20 PM UTC

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #215

cperciva wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It ensures that servicing is performed by qualified personnel, thereby mitigating the market for lemons.

Is service by third party mechanics really the dominant factor in creating lemons, and not design or manufacturing defects or abusive driving by previous owners?

One of the largest factors is probably a lack of servicing. By requiring all servicing to be done by Tesla (who presumably keep records) they eliminate the "yeah I had that service done but I lost the receipt" scenario: If Tesla says that they didn't service a car, the buyer knows that it wasn't serviced.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#230

Post by toomuchtodo » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 9:21 PM UTC

c22 wrote: post #207

toomuchtodo wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you're going to go down that route (no pun intended), why not eventually ban everything but officially certified driverless cars from public roads? I agree. That's the way its going to go. People kill 40K/people a year in the US simply driving, and injure/maim hundreds of thousands. There's no way self-driving cars aren't better than that. Want to build your vroom vroom car? Own the entire stack down to the atom…

There likely exists a larger stockpile of fairly well-engineered manually driven cars than there were buggies during the advent of the automobile. This existing stock will likely buffer the robotic revolution of our roads somewhat. Also, I think the convenience delta from self-driven car to "driverless" car is smaller than that from keeping living horses to regular maintenance of an automobile.

> Also, I think the convenience delta from self-driven car to "driverless" car is smaller than that from keeping living horses to regular maintenance of an automobile.

The number of teenagers with driver's licenses is the lowest in history. Compound that with the 65+ cohort aging quickly, and older drivers being dangerous drivers (lower reaction time).

It's not a convenience delta. Its an experience and safety delta. We are talking tens of billions (if not more) of dollars in savings from taking the human out of the loop.