Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars • Hacker News Board

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#41

Post by leesalminen » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 4:58 PM UTC

carlivar wrote: post #34

qume wrote: post #13

This is a good place to share this with geeks who may not be into cars: I drive a 1994 Mercedes (W124 chassis). One of the most reliable cars ever made. Simple to repair yourself. A TON of info available online for anything you could want to fix. Pretty much (probably 100%) of all parts on the car are available super cheap as chinese replacements because the model was around for so long and so many of them are still…

Your window regulator will fail again within a year or two. (Learned this from experience installing Chinese-made replacement parts in my 90's VW)

My E46 3 series (BMW) would chew through these as well. OEM or knockoff.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#42

Post by vonmoltke » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 4:59 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #21

qume wrote: post #13

This is a good place to share this with geeks who may not be into cars: I drive a 1994 Mercedes (W124 chassis). One of the most reliable cars ever made. Simple to repair yourself. A TON of info available online for anything you could want to fix. Pretty much (probably 100%) of all parts on the car are available super cheap as chinese replacements because the model was around for so long and so many of them are still…

@20.8 mpg city when new that's 10,000 gallons of fuel for 200k miles or ~30,000$ while gas is cheap. A Tesla model 3 (To Be Unveiled March 31st) is 35,000$, costs far less (~1/10th) for fuel, and is not 22 years old. That's why people care about electric cars.

> that's 10,000 gallons of fuel for 200k miles or ~30,000$ while gas is cheap

Highly dependent on where you live. Here in Texas it was $30,000 when gas was expensive; it would be $17,000 at current prices.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#43

Post by nbzklr » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 5:01 PM UTC

lacker wrote: post #18

None of this seems "throwaway" to me. It just means that rather than build a product that ends up being repaired by a distributed army of mechanics, they are going "full stack" and aiming to repair everything in-house. To me that seems like the ideal system - some people like the author might enjoy repairing their own cars, but I would rather not.

Tesla is basically selling a "CAAS" (Car As A Service). More and more (Tech) companies try to lock down their products and protect the customer from himself. It's a worrying pattern. How can that be the ideal system?

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#44

Post by qume » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 5:01 PM UTC

Swizec wrote: post #20

qume wrote: post #13

This is a good place to share this with geeks who may not be into cars: I drive a 1994 Mercedes (W124 chassis). One of the most reliable cars ever made. Simple to repair yourself. A TON of info available online for anything you could want to fix. Pretty much (probably 100%) of all parts on the car are available super cheap as chinese replacements because the model was around for so long and so many of them are still…

You should look up crash tests between cars considered safe in 1994 and modern cars. I saw one for two Renault Espace models. The old one was so crumply compared to the new one, that the new one didn't even deploy airbags because there was no need. Both got top safety ratings when new. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xQS-7heF-og

Great point. I have watched hundreds (not exaggerating). Sobering.

New in general is much better than old. But, it gets complicated.

The strength of the cage the passengers are in hasn't improved much, what has is how they behave in very specific crash tests. Go outside of that (go off a bank and roll down the hill over and over) and you'll find an old GL750 Volvo or '79 W116 merc will still have kept it's integrity in the passenger compartment (the doors will probably still open) where most modern cars would be crushed, passengers included.

Basically the bottom line is if you're going to buy an older car, get one that is still considered safe today. That leaves you with all mercs, volvos, most BMWs and Saabs from the post-airbag era. And get ABS - avoid the accident in the first place.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#45

Post by ryandrake » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 5:02 PM UTC

One of the things that makes a car valuable is having a healthy aftermarket. It looks like, from this article anyway, Tesla is doing anything they can to make sure there is no aftermarket for their vehicles.

To me, a car that you can't service yourself is worthless. A car that needs the manufacturer's permission to activate is not your car--it's owned by the manufacturer. And, when the manufacturer places a threatening call to the "owner" after he tries to get diagnostic information from his own car [1], well that's so far beyond crossing the line it's not even funny.

I think we're going to start seeing "jailbroken" Teslas soon after they start falling out of their warranty period. I'm surprised it hasn't happened already. You'd think that out of the thousands of people who have already bought one of these cars, there might be one out there with both the skills and desire to actually own what they paid for.

1: http://gas2.org/2014/04/14/road-slightly-traveled-hacking-te...

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#46

Post by al_biglan » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 5:05 PM UTC

Interesting, but Tesla is both just getting started and "feeling the space" in the auto industry. They have taken pride in taking a different approach to traditional car companies and I imagine some of the wording around the Extended Warranty is simply being new and not copy-pasting examples from other companies.

Also, Tesla isn't making cars for everyone (yet) but instead focusing on expensive/luxury cars. Rather than compare against GM/Honda/etc. How do they compare against Maserati/Aston Martin/etc.?

Finally, as a young company, it may indeed be their _goal_ to build cars that last forever, but the first few generations they are still pushing the envelope of (their) understanding. In this case, bringing ell cars back to their repair centers may be the "right" way to build this experience into their future automobiles.

So... "yeah, they aren't making cars that will last more than N years unless you, as an owner, are prepared to sink a bunch of cash into achieving this" It may be more interesting to watch the auto that replaces the Model S. Both in terms of their timeframe for introducing new models (beyond expanding into different classes of vehicles) as well as how they adopt what they learn into more fundamental design changes. Thank you to all those cutting edge people willing to buy Teslas now. I'll wait 5-10 years till they get mainstream and keep my Honda and Toyota on the road for 250k miles :-)

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#47

Post by sremani » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 5:05 PM UTC

Great article, very forward looking and constructive criticism. Tesla is a young company with Silicon Valley ethos, it does not surprise me, they are treating Cars like Software. Where you are licensed to use software but do not own it and how that world view may or may not work.

I am just wondering since Volt is from Old guard, its chances are better because the maintainability is a bit more traditional (but not all Volts can be repaired at any GM dealership). We may need a different model for EVs and PHEVs.

http://www.voltstats.net/Stats/Details/1579

Logically it may extend to other EVs and PHEVs like Model S, but here is a real world volt which crossed 300K miles (the driver has a long commute, its kind of real world validation of longevity of EVs/PHEVs)

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#48

Post by bliti » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 5:05 PM UTC

lacker wrote: post #18

None of this seems "throwaway" to me. It just means that rather than build a product that ends up being repaired by a distributed army of mechanics, they are going "full stack" and aiming to repair everything in-house. To me that seems like the ideal system - some people like the author might enjoy repairing their own cars, but I would rather not.

It's not about the joy of auto repair. The vast majority of car owners cannot afford to repair their car. Even when parts are available. Having the technical documentation allows people to fix their cars. Tesla does not make the documentation available easily and parts, well, are pretty much as expensive as tesla wants them to be. Surely this is just a Tesla ownership issue. The problem is that Tesla will move to build lower priced models. Those cars will flood the used car market. People will buy them. What happens when they break down and can't afford it? People here might blame them for buying a car they can't service. True, but not realistic. People do not buy based on logic but on a combination of factors.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#49

Post by darpa_escapee » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 5:05 PM UTC

carlivar wrote: post #39

lacker wrote: post #18

None of this seems "throwaway" to me. It just means that rather than build a product that ends up being repaired by a distributed army of mechanics, they are going "full stack" and aiming to repair everything in-house. To me that seems like the ideal system - some people like the author might enjoy repairing their own cars, but I would rather not.

Now imagine Apple got rid of independent repair shops (they are already heading in this direction pretty much). There would be outrage, and there's already unease with Apple's direction in these areas. Why does Tesla get a pass?

Because new, shiny technology is Good. There's an entire mythos behind Tesla and Musk the same way there was with Apple and Jobs.

You'll find Apple apologists who will excuse this as well.

Re: Why I think Tesla is building throwaway cars

#50

Post by qume » Sun, Mar 06, 2016, 5:08 PM UTC

MagnumOpus wrote: post #38

Retric wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

@20.8 mpg city when new that's 10,000 gallons of fuel for 200k miles or ~30,000$ while gas is cheap. A Tesla model 3 (To Be Unveiled March 31st) is 35,000$, costs far less (~1/10th) for fuel, and is not 22 years old. That's why people care about electric cars.

10k gallons costs you $18,000 or less right now "while gas is cheap" - for a TCO of $20,000 in 20 years (plus cheap-ish repairs) - and you are driving a Merc. The model 3 (once you can actually get hold of it) will cost you $35,000 up front, plus about $7,000 in electricity for 200k miles at prices of 13-15c/kWh, plus about two battery replacements - battery lifetime is 8 years or 125k miles - at $10,000ish a pop - f…

And don't forget the 'cost of money'. Take the purchase price, $35k, minus an old car, say $5k, and you have $30k making money for you over the 20 years. Conservatively, even in a bank in some countries, the return from $30k in the bank is going to pay for your gas then you'll still have the principle left over at the end.