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When the U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages

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Re: When the U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages

#21
joint distribution of 2 normal distributions isn't necessarily a normal distribution in 2 variables. Independence would be sufficient condition for that, yet obviously there is no independence between various measurements of a human body.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivariate_normal_distributi...

Re: When the U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages

#22

Has nobody heard of quetelet?

I think we had a discussion here on HN not long ago but I can't find it.

edit:

Found the article:

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/02/the-inve...

comments: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11155889

Re: When the U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages

#24

Articles like this remind me how rational and practical the military is. I know so many brilliant military minds, yet war itself seems outdated and plagued by so many emotionally irrational decisions. I can't reconcile those two thoughts. How can people inside the military be so incredibly smart, yet still think it makes sense to ... you know, kill people's friends and families and not expect them to become terrorist…

Blaming the military for stupid shit that the military does is like blaming police for stupid shit that police do. It might make us feel better, but it ignores the root of the problem, and therefore perpetuates the stupid shit. That is, we, the society that puts the military into impossible situations ("topple governments in the Middle East, and then hang around a couple of years to make sure that ends in order, peace, and prosperity for all") and the police into impossible situations ("you seem to have violence under control, here are three or four more basic human drives we'd like you to thwart in capricious fashion") are the root of the problem. So long as we allow ourselves to be distracted from that, we can expect more stupid shit.

...and yes, of course the military-industrial complex is complicit in our ongoing distraction, but they only hire the pundits and media personalities. We're the ones who listen to them.

Re: When the U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages

#25

Articles like this remind me how rational and practical the military is. I know so many brilliant military minds, yet war itself seems outdated and plagued by so many emotionally irrational decisions. I can't reconcile those two thoughts. How can people inside the military be so incredibly smart, yet still think it makes sense to ... you know, kill people's friends and families and not expect them to become terrorist…

Do military people disagree with your analysis about killing ?

I was really dismayed when Colin Powell argued for invading Iraq. Yes, there are military people who get it. But just look what's happening.

I guess they have to think, what is the alternative? We can't change our role in the Middle East. We can't just stop supporting Israel for example.

I suppose yes, they tried Camp David. I guess I just want everyone to cease fire.

Maybe the overpowered people resorting to terrorism, I do hate that word, have to think there is a positive outcome from the cease fire. If they cease firing and life doesn't improve, why did they cease firing? At least firing alleviates the frustration of it all. They think they are hurting those who are hurting themselves.

But life for the Palestinians never improves no matter. It just keeps getting worse and worse and worse for them. The people with the power have to stop exerting it over others and selfishly taking more.

I had a buddy in Afghanistan and he said their way of life is 500 years old. I mean, I think okay, if they don't want to progress, that doesn't mean we should use the tools of our progress to take from them so we can progress more.

I think at some point we have to stop betraying people.

Re: When the U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages

#26

Articles like this remind me how rational and practical the military is. I know so many brilliant military minds, yet war itself seems outdated and plagued by so many emotionally irrational decisions. I can't reconcile those two thoughts. How can people inside the military be so incredibly smart, yet still think it makes sense to ... you know, kill people's friends and families and not expect them to become terrorist…

As a vet myself, you seem to have a view of the military that's straight out of a Tom Clancy novel (that everyone is extremely overly competent and highly educated and intelligent). "Articles like this remind me how rational and practical the military is. I know so many brilliant military minds"-no, the military is full of people, a lot of whom are as at least as fucked up on many levels as people outside the military.

Re: When the U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages

#27
post #4

Is it just me or does this sound oddly familiar to machine learning recommendation systems? ie: show an item based on the average of all the other items that everyone else has looked at.

Yeah, I was thinking of the same thing. It's not my field professionally though, so I am not sure what the relevant conclusion would be for machine learning though (or if the comparison holds at all).

Re: When the U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, in this case if the 10 traits are independent and the chance of falling in the "average range" is 1/3 for any one trait then the probability of any one soldier falling the the average range for 10 traits is (1/3)^10 = 1/59049.

That's assuming that they're independent, though, which is certainly false. I'm curious by how much.

Why is it certainly false?

Re: When the U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages

#29

Articles like this remind me how rational and practical the military is. I know so many brilliant military minds, yet war itself seems outdated and plagued by so many emotionally irrational decisions. I can't reconcile those two thoughts. How can people inside the military be so incredibly smart, yet still think it makes sense to ... you know, kill people's friends and families and not expect them to become terrorist…

The military is just the apotheosis of bureaucracy. Bureaucracies live off of data, often to a fault, when whatever they're after can't be reliably measured.

Re: When the U.S. air force discovered the flaw of averages

#30
post #21

joint distribution of 2 normal distributions isn't necessarily a normal distribution in 2 variables. Independence would be sufficient condition for that, yet obviously there is no independence between various measurements of a human body. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multivariate_normal_distributi...

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