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Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

theguardian.com

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Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#101

Post by acveilleux »

hyperion2010 wrote: post #11
foota wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How could they drain it?

Dig an alternate channel.

That's called a spillway BTW and the problem with spillways is erosion and the energy of the water. So spillways have to be made of reinforced concrete or similarly strong materials when the local rock isn't hard enough and they have to be shaped to dissipate the energy.

The spillway of the Mosul dam is made of concrete the problem with it appears to be that it allows too high a water level for the dam in its current shape even when fully open.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#102

Post by thomasz »

emodendroket wrote: post #98
thomasz wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just don't understand why you assume that the risks were not disclosed to the government. In my eyes, it's way more likely that the government decided to go ahead anyway. This was one of Saddam Hussein's prestige projects - telling him that it couldn't be done could've been fatal.

While Saddam Hussein may not have been a friend of human rights I doubt he would have had European engineers killed for declining to work on his project.

He might have killed the people who reported to him, who in turn did everything to make that project happen, future cost and risk be damned.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#103

Post by reubenmorais »

Errsher wrote: post #60
Blaque wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you explain why a syphon won't work over 30ft?

"This siphon effect relies on atmospheric pressure to allow the pressure and pressure potential energy to drop as the water travels upward inside the sealed pipe. But eventually the pressure of the rising water reaches zero and no further reductions in pressure and pressure potential energy are possible. That failure of the siphon effect occurs when the water is about 30 feet (10 meters) above the higher container. Y…

It's not atmospheric pressure:

"Here we report an experiment of a siphon operating at sea level at a height of 15 m, well above 10 m. Prior degassing of the water prevented cavitation. This experiment provides conclusive evidence that siphons operate through gravity and molecular cohesion."

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep16790

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#104

Post by carsongross »

atdt wrote: post #31

> The dam was designed by a Swiss firm of consultants and built by a German-Italian consortium in 1984. Water began seeping through in 1986, when it became apparent that the geological issues were worse than the consultants had predicted. I doubt that this was an innocent failure on their part. There was a huge financial incentive for these firms to find some way to validate this project. Successive foreign consultan…

This is one reason why "skin in the game" (to use Taleb's phrase) and social solidarity (to use mine) is so important in economic matters.

During my libertarian days, I used to mock the folks that suggested tariffs and favoring local companies in infrastructure projects were good ideas. I now regret giving so little thought to their arguments.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#105

Post by swehner »

carsongross wrote: post #104
atdt wrote: post #31

> The dam was designed by a Swiss firm of consultants and built by a German-Italian consortium in 1984. Water began seeping through in 1986, when it became apparent that the geological issues were worse than the consultants had predicted. I doubt that this was an innocent failure on their part. There was a huge financial incentive for these firms to find some way to validate this project. Successive foreign consultan…

This is one reason why "skin in the game" (to use Taleb's phrase) and social solidarity (to use mine) is so important in economic matters. During my libertarian days, I used to mock the folks that suggested tariffs and favoring local companies in infrastructure projects were good ideas. I now regret giving so little thought to their arguments.

Wouldn't this apply to most dams around the world? Designed, constructed by foreigners?

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#106

Post by jamesfe »

I was a Marine in Iraq from 06-09. We constantly built plans for the inevitable demise of this dam. Mostly just estimates of how screwed people would be.

I'm surprised it's not blown yet, I was constantly worried someone would bomb it somehow, but 7 years later, it's still standing, so I'm unsure about any estimates given now - the Iraqis were fairly liberal in their estimates in 2006 (it'll fall by 2007) and the same predictions followed every year. Of course, they wanted vast quantities of money to fix it (and skim off the top for themselves) so there was some bias.

Check out the Haditha Dam too. Another large body of water held back by aging infrastructure further destroyed by looters who dismantled huge pieces of machinery to sell as scrap for $0.05/lb.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#107

Post by ryanmarsh »

So many indignant comments here by people who've surely never seen how large construction projects work in third world countries.

Try to keep in mind that the average civil engineer has the same amount of integrity as you do. Maybe more because lives are at stake. How construction projects get green lit in third world countries often follows an unorthodox set of practices far removed from the engineers who are told to "just make it work". Sound familiar?

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#108

Post by kamaal »

thomasz wrote: post #102
emodendroket wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While Saddam Hussein may not have been a friend of human rights I doubt he would have had European engineers killed for declining to work on his project.

He might have killed the people who reported to him, who in turn did everything to make that project happen, future cost and risk be damned.

"To understand his tantrum one must understand the kinship he feels with the great men of history, with history itself. Lack of reverence for an image of Copernicus might suggest a lack of reverence for Saddam."

From : http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2002/05/tales-of...

Dictators are violent, not stupid. They understand risks, and make decisions like any other leader.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#109

Post by mratzloff »

daodedickinson wrote: post #74
yourapostasy wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AFAIK you can abandon the Hoover dam and it will still be there in 500 years. Yes, Hoover dam is quite the civil engineering and project management feat. It's structural lifespan in the absence of maintenance (the turbines will go inoperative in months to years in the absence of maintenance) is estimated in the thousands of years range. [1] http://zidbits.com/2013/05/how-long-will-the-hoover-dam-last...

I never got to the Hoover dam in New Vegas... I wonder how realistically it was depicted.

About as realistically as the National Mall in Fallout 3, that is, smaller in scale and very simplified.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#110

Post by zanny »

TallGuyShort wrote: post #85
james_pm wrote: post #62

To give some sense of the scale of the disaster that would follow a failure, the US considered bombing that dam and releasing all that water in response to a potential chemical attack on US troops during Gulf War I, according to Colin Powell ( http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/script_b.html - search for dams).

They considered an attack that would have killed ~1M people, presumably mainly civilians? sigh smh

It isn't just about loss of life, the dam constitutes a good chunk of Iraq's power generation. It is still a strategic military target.
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