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Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

theguardian.com

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Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#81

Post by TallGuyShort »

jerf wrote: post #78
metafunctor wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that a very good reason for not telling the truth to government?

One possibility is that a lot of people did tell the truth to the government, but the government kept asking more questions until it got the answer it wanted. There's always somebody willing to be paid to do that, and it isn't necessarily an indictment against a profession that it doesn't have literally 100% compliance to some ethical standard, on the grounds that I don't tend to indict entire professional fields for…

>> There's always somebody willing to be paid to do that

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1m-AEWMRVo

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#82

Post by s_q_b »

Scarblac wrote: post #67
s_q_b wrote: post #47

I've had six civil engineers tell me that that dam has 6-months at maximum. The odds of collapse within that period ranged from 80-95% in estimates.

When did they tell you that?

A couple days ago, dinner conversation.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#83

Post by salgernon »

An article from 2007:

  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7069109.stm
With a similar conclusion mentions that the water resources minister kept much of the discussions about how to proceed with the dam maintenance out of the public eye to avoid bringing the issues to the attention of insurgents.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#84

Post by taco_emoji »

mikecb wrote: post #71
Errsher wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"This siphon effect relies on atmospheric pressure to allow the pressure and pressure potential energy to drop as the water travels upward inside the sealed pipe. But eventually the pressure of the rising water reaches zero and no further reductions in pressure and pressure potential energy are possible. That failure of the siphon effect occurs when the water is about 30 feet (10 meters) above the higher container. Y…

What about running the tube over the dam and down to a lower level than it originates? Then gravity(?) does the trick?

The issue is that top of the dam is (way) over 30 feet above the water level behind the dam, which prevents the suction from overcoming gravity. A siphon won't work with that much of a rise in the middle no matter what the difference is between the elevations of the ends of the tube.

Also what you're describing is literally how all siphons must work--you can't siphon to a higher elevation.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#85

Post by TallGuyShort »

james_pm wrote: post #62

To give some sense of the scale of the disaster that would follow a failure, the US considered bombing that dam and releasing all that water in response to a potential chemical attack on US troops during Gulf War I, according to Colin Powell ( http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/gulf/script_b.html - search for dams).

They considered an attack that would have killed ~1M people, presumably mainly civilians? sigh smh

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#86

Post by rwallace »

adrianN wrote: post #80
rwallace wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You (and at least one other) reacted as though I had claimed such an action would come with a guarantee nothing could go wrong. Which is, to put it bluntly, a rather stupid reaction given that: 1. I didn't make a claim. I asked a question. 2. According to the experts, the clock is currently ticking down on a million lives with no idea of how much time is left, so your implied suggestion of doing nothing (which is the…

It just seems to me that using explosives on a structure where collapse is imminent in order to fix it sounds like the most dangerous idea one could possibly have.

First of all, according to what the experts are saying, the most dangerous idea one could possibly have is your idea of doing nothing - that guarantees the worst-case outcome.

Second, one would normally expect the force required to break the dam to be orders of magnitude larger than that required to open a sluice gate. Obviously this isn't a normal situation, but then, what are the figures? If a stick of dynamite isn't the appropriate tool, exactly what would it take to open the gates?

Third, if you could say 'we are going to try this at such and such a time, everyone be prepared' that would be far better than having it fail at an unknown time.

Fourth, now that I think of it, even deliberately blowing up the dam at a known time would be better than letting it fail at an unknown time.

Fifth, I'm sure there is some relevant idea or consideration I haven't thought of, that someone else could think of if they put their mind to doing so.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#87

Post by acqq »

tome wrote: post #73
chippy wrote: post #49

So they were working on fixing this but the west imposed sanctions in the 90s and stopped work. "There is no permanent solution except building another dam,” Ansari said. A second structure, the Badush dam, was started 20km downstream, to prevent a catastrophe in the event of the Mosul dam’s failure. But work on Badush halted in the 1990s because of the pressure of sanctions, leaving it only 40% complete."

Interesting that you can find a way to blame this on the West when Saddam could just have complied with the UN (who imposed the sanctions, not the "West"), had the sactions removed, and given his people a better life.

Actually, the US wanted Saddam away just the same like they wanted Assad away. There was nothing Saddam could do except for allowing the US to take over the whole country and prosecute (and kill) him.

That's why the info about WMD was faked, both by the US and the UK. The UK was extreme, doing copy paste of the works of students from the internet. It's an interesting read.

The UK articles from 2003(!):

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/jun/08/media.openup

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-159314/No-10-admits-...

"The Government was accused of attempting to mislead Parliament and the general public after it emerged a dossier of evidence against Saddam Hussein was largely lifted from a Californian postgraduate student's outdated thesis."

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#88

Post by acqq »

salgernon wrote: post #75
acqq wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to mention the war in 2003 and everything afterwards, as presented by Bush (even if he hasn't personally developed the plan), it was "to bring democracy" there. Since the US was effectively for years in charge there, since 2003, theoretically, there was certainly enough time and money to finish the second dam.

http://the-reaction.blogspot.com/2007/10/god-really-doesnt-like-bush-much.html The US was trying to provide "aid" in protecting the dam in 2007 - I have no idea if it was taken on as a legitimate project or just wallpaper to say "see how we're helping". I don't have time for fun conspiracy theories, but I'm sure lines can be traced all around construction of the dam, through the bush family, back to infrastructure, e…

The estimated cost of finishing the second dam is much bigger than the "aid" from the link (the aid was meager $27m, split to 21 contractor), but still orders of magnitude lower that the money spent by the US only on the military in Iraq.

Therefore not surprising, from the 2007 article behind your link:

"In a report published on Tuesday, the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) said US-funded "short-term solutions" had yet to significantly solve the dam's problems."

To compare:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-war-anniversary-idUSB...

"Iraq war costs U.S. more than $2 trillion"

If I calculate correctly, enough for 74,000 such "aid" fixes.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#89

Post by yiyus »

chris_wot wrote: post #64
thomasz wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just don't understand why you assume that the risks were not disclosed to the government. In my eyes, it's way more likely that the government decided to go ahead anyway. This was one of Saddam Hussein's prestige projects - telling him that it couldn't be done could've been fatal.

If those firms knew if the extreme risks then they should have decided not to accept the work! I think it's pretty much a given that Sadaam Hussein, even back then, was a dictator who wouldn't necessarily put the safety of his people first.

I do not think that because he was a dictator he would not care at all.

Probably, he did not want to destroy Mosul and all its people. And even if this did not worry him, taking into account that he was doing this for publicity (either internal or international), he would not have wanted the dam to fail and kill thousands of people.

Re: Mosul dam engineers warn it could fail at any time, killing 1M people

#90

Post by yiyus »

ctdonath wrote: post #59

Has/could someone at least set up some cameras recording 24/7 to document the inevitable collapse in detail?

I am afraid that the amount of vapor would not let us to see too much. But I totally agree, somebody please set up some cameras.
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