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China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

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181–190 of 219 posts

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are strange metrics of success you chose: number of cars produced annually, amount of public debt held. I'd have gone with GDP, military strength, set of advantageous alliances, or some other measure of economic, military, or political power.

China's alliances are with the youngest regions with big growth potential - much of Africa, Asia, Iran, and now central Asia and Latin America. US has hitched its wagon to the declining western Europe.

> has hitched its wagon to the declining western Europe.

We are declining? I wish someone had told me.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's interesting that all of the numbers in your post seem to be significant, but really aren't. The US "owes" China a trillion USD because the Chinese, investing on a national scale, need a safe investment that can support trillions and trillions of yuans. And in that regard right now, the US is the only game in town. China's GDP growth is high, but that's because they're starting from a GDP that's much lower than t…

> It's natural to cheer for your team and boo the other team. I wouldn't take too much offense. It is a primitive behaviour because it fosters racism and hatred for others instead of cooperation. The one thing we do not need more of right now is hatred, there's enough of it in the world. Edit: It is also one thing if a private person holds his opinion (however detestable it might be - I don't care) and if we get this…

Even from an artificial game theoretic perspective, cooperation is often not the optimal choice. I'd say that in real life, even more so.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#183

The American media seems to jump at any opportunity to dismiss China as an economic threat. It makes us feel more secure but leads to a public informed only about one side of China's story. Namely the part our ego can handle. China has regularly surpassed the US in number of cars sold since 2009. China also holds more US debt than any other country. Another way to put that is the US government owes China over 1 trill…

Another thing is Americans have very little understanding of their own history; particularly how America went through the same type of tumult as China in its early economic development. Financial crises were the norm (and still are) and it was a wild place with loads of corruption and vast ungoverned / autonomous regions. Yes, soon China will have a financial crisis. It will have to undergo restructuring and debt for…

One big difference: there's been a lot more research on economic matters since America's early tumult. There have been warnings about China's debt issues since the issues started.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#184
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well, and now let's look what their "competitor" (west) have done during those hundreds of years of presence there... Yes Chinese are not saints but pure capitalists, I see no evil in their actions. On the other hand, white man's actions there were evil on quite a few occasions

You see no evil, yet. I don't want to know what happens when the latest wannabe dictator comes along and nationalises all the Chinese infrastructure...

A pretty short war? I don't see where China would be too worried about a small time dictator? Or was that your point and I missed it? It could be good for Africa for that to happen, have China step in and assume some order, rather than the Chaos that is keeping many of these countries economically down.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the US can default if it wants to.

Oh silly, why would anyone want to... http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/09/house_rep... Oh yeah, now I remember why our credit rating was lowered.

Think of it this way. Your parents borrow $10000 to throw a big party--one that you were not allowed to attend. After they die, their wills are read, bequeathing unto you $10000 in festivity debt, plus 50 years of interest. They never paid for the party, despite having such a great time at it (or so you assume, not having been there to judge).

Now you have a choice. You can try to maintain the postmortem reputations of your parents, by accepting their debt and making the payments. Or you can tell the creditors to FOAD.

For some reason, not only did our parents do that to us, but our grandparents did it to them, they chose to inherit the debt, and they still borrowed more money to throw their own party.

With government debt, the generational boundaries are not so clear, and the inheritance of debt smears together across thousands of deaths. But essentially, previous generations have been paying forward their debts instead of paying them back, to the point where almost everyone in the society is essentially born owing money to someone else. We already have so much inherited debt that we just can't afford to borrow the money for our own party. Also, we can't opt out.

That's not altogether untenable. I'd be willing to save up money and wait to throw my party until after the budget requirement is met. But it's hard to save anything when so much of your income is being sucked up by your elder generations' debt payments. And it is especially galling when people the same generation as you appear to be enjoying a party to which you were not invited.

That's the most persuasive rhetoric I know of in favor of repudiating national debt. To not do so is to reward the gross fiscal irresponsibility of our forebears.

The rhetoric against it, and also against mere default, states that it would devastate the ability of the current government to borrow more money. In other words, it would require the government to be more prudent and rational in regard to its budgeting. How is that a negative?

But that wasn't why the House Republicans threatened default. They were sending a big "F U" to the Obama administration, and playing a juvenile game of Chicken to do it. And they were only going to force some missed interest payments, without questioning the principal. Repudiating the debt would mean no more interest payments, and no repayment of principal, either. That would also, of course, cause a massive financial catastrophe that would preclude any partying for a long, long time, but at least it would temporarily stop the vicious cycle of kicking the snowball further down the mountain until it is so large that it starts killing any people unlucky enough to get in its way.

I'd love to have the national credit rating lowered. It would help stop the party-goers from running up another trillion that the non-invitees are ultimately tasked with paying off.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#186

The American media seems to jump at any opportunity to dismiss China as an economic threat. It makes us feel more secure but leads to a public informed only about one side of China's story. Namely the part our ego can handle. China has regularly surpassed the US in number of cars sold since 2009. China also holds more US debt than any other country. Another way to put that is the US government owes China over 1 trill…

> China has regularly surpassed the US in number of cars sold since 2009

OH MY GOD THE WORLD IS ENDING.

oh wait, a country with a much higher population is able to sell more cars. Carry on.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#187

The American media seems to jump at any opportunity to dismiss China as an economic threat. It makes us feel more secure but leads to a public informed only about one side of China's story. Namely the part our ego can handle. China has regularly surpassed the US in number of cars sold since 2009. China also holds more US debt than any other country. Another way to put that is the US government owes China over 1 trill…

Not sure what you mean. People are trying to explain this down turn (e.g. Jan 1 to Feb 17; SPY -5.21%) and the possibility of a recession on the horizon and Oil/China are currently big reasons for that. China not having imploded yet means that right now the movements in the market are mostly speculative and psychological factors at play. This article is saying "Yes the down turn is coming. And yes it's because china is in trouble. And yes it will be big. And yes it'll happen soon enough because it's getting to critical mass."

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#188
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US view of the constitution as a sacred document is quite unusual by international standards. For many people in many countries the constitution is just another law.

Sacred is the right word. It is seen as an almost religious document written by men who were inspired (as seen by some) by "Christian values" (read God) and it enshrines and protect the most basic moral values. They look back to the men that wrote it hoping to divine their intent much like those who read the bible.

Well, yes. It's the basis for the machinery of the US government. As time goes on, how do you know what a document means if it uses words and textual shorthand that are no longer in common parlance?

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#189
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have $3.9T worth of cash reserves sitting in a vault in addition to holding over $1T in US debt.

No, they don't. There's only 1.4 trillion dollars in circulation. http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/currency_12773.htm

Not all of their cash reserves are denominated in US dollars.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#190
post #158

The American media seems to jump at any opportunity to dismiss China as an economic threat. It makes us feel more secure but leads to a public informed only about one side of China's story. Namely the part our ego can handle. China has regularly surpassed the US in number of cars sold since 2009. China also holds more US debt than any other country. Another way to put that is the US government owes China over 1 trill…

OPEC oil is sold exclusively in US Dollar, not Chinese Yuan;

Just to let you know, that rule does not apply for Iran (an OPEC producer). Not surprising given US sanctions, but there are exceptions to the rule.
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