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China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

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Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#91

Post by jcoffland »

carboncopy wrote: post #64
jcoffland wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You read it wrong. It's cash in hand not public debt they have more of.

No, I read it right. It's American public debt they hold. They don't have 1 trillion dollars in cash sitting in a vault. They are holding U.S. Treasury bonds. And again, I don't understand why having 1 trillion dollars in a reserve bank is a useful measure of economic power. The Chinese economy has a GDP of $10tn compared with the U.S. economy of $17tn. That is an example of a meaningful metric of power. ^^^ the pare…

They have $3.9T worth of cash reserves sitting in a vault in addition to holding over $1T in US debt.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#92

Post by lmm »

nebula wrote: post #71
rosser wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China can do things at a scale the West in general, and the US in particular can't even fathom. I was in Tibet with some friends in October. At one point, our tour bus was detoured, because the bridge on our scheduled route wasn't big enough for it, so we drove a couple hours out of our way, and just happened to pass a 10MW solar plant. In the middle of Nowhere, Tibet. A thing we wouldn't even have seen if we hadn't…

new constitution, which favored closer ties with China over India. Really? They have it ingrained in the constitution? If Geo-political situation changes, and they need to re-balance their ties? They are going to need constitutional amendments?

The US view of the constitution as a sacred document is quite unusual by international standards. For many people in many countries the constitution is just another law.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#93

Post by lmm »

hackuser wrote: post #32
miserable1980 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've been in constant crisis mode since 2000 (just as I graduated college). This crap kept me from buying a home, delayed marriage and children, etc. In my mid 30s, I have no job security, almost no retirement and no home. I had no idea life in the 21st century was going to be so miserable for young people in North America. I guess this is globalization in action :(

I've heard others say that, but I don't understand: Other than the 2008 recession, which was a much worse one than its predecessors, what is any worse than earlier periods? If you are thinking of 9/11, before that we had the Cold War, against an enemy many orders of magnitude more dangerous and damaging. I almost think that conservatives who sell crisis, to justify all sorts of things from civil liberties restriction…

Those of us who grew up in the '90s naturally compare to that. No Cold War, "the end of history", little in the way of foreign wars (and a remarkably successful one in Serbia where it felt like we were the good guys and were successful with it), an economy so successful that the Clinton administration was having to make plans for what would happen if the Treasury stopped issuing bonds, what felt like a hopeful technological future...

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#94

Post by vineetraja »

rosser wrote: post #48
jcoffland wrote: post #33

The American media seems to jump at any opportunity to dismiss China as an economic threat. It makes us feel more secure but leads to a public informed only about one side of China's story. Namely the part our ego can handle. China has regularly surpassed the US in number of cars sold since 2009. China also holds more US debt than any other country. Another way to put that is the US government owes China over 1 trill…

China can do things at a scale the West in general, and the US in particular can't even fathom. I was in Tibet with some friends in October. At one point, our tour bus was detoured, because the bridge on our scheduled route wasn't big enough for it, so we drove a couple hours out of our way, and just happened to pass a 10MW solar plant. In the middle of Nowhere, Tibet. A thing we wouldn't even have seen if we hadn't…

>> Nepal had passed its new constitution, which favored closer ties with China over India

Nepal passed the constitution barring a large section of its own population (Madehsis et al) from participation in the government function.

This has been the bone of contention. The barred ones are culturally tied to Indian state of Bihar, almost to the extent of having common identities.

There were violent protests in southern Nepal, and slowly the situation got out of control for Nepal government to handle. The same protesters were blocking the major connecting roads from the Nepalese side of border. While on the Indian side there were long queues of trucks lined up.

It is rumored that Indian government helped orchestrating these protests, just as much as it is rumored that Chinese government influenced to keep the Madhesis out.

But at the end of day a that constitution is certainly failing in many aspects.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#95

Post by oliwarner »

rosser wrote: post #84
oliwarner wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a neighbour so there's an obvious local power advantage. It's not unimpressive though and I completely agree about there being a scale and general surplus of engineering prowess that the rest of us just can't comprehend. What is perhaps more alarming is their development of Africa. I passed through a few African countries last year and China was everywhere . They're in the up-and-coming metropolises like Addis…

It's staggering, isn't it? > They're investing hundreds of millions in exchange for the infrastructure they use to strip-mine a country. They aren't even investing that much. The equipment is all being bought — from government-owned companies — with government grant money. They're playing a very long game, and they're incredibly good at it.

It's hard to value the actual investment, given all the stuff and people they're investing is all theirs to begin with. There's very little actual cash changing hands. Tax and royalties on mining is often dodged or offset too.

But the "hundreds of millions" is what it would cost a western country to buy [from China]. You're right though, China isn't losing hundreds of millions for the investment. Probably only a tiny fraction of that.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#96

Post by wobbleblob »

fasteddie wrote: post #39
jcoffland wrote: post #33

The American media seems to jump at any opportunity to dismiss China as an economic threat. It makes us feel more secure but leads to a public informed only about one side of China's story. Namely the part our ego can handle. China has regularly surpassed the US in number of cars sold since 2009. China also holds more US debt than any other country. Another way to put that is the US government owes China over 1 trill…

US treasuries are at historically low rates -- if China dumped 'em all it probably wouldn't move the needle that much. And the reason they hold so many is not as some control play against the US -- its because it was the best way to devalue their currency enough to support exports.

> And the reason they hold so many is not as some control play against the US -- its because it was the best way to devalue their currency enough to support exports.

Can you explain how that devalues a currency? Isn't a simpler explanation that the reason they hold so many is because US government bonds were and still are the safest way to invest your money?

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#97

Post by Golf_Hotel_Mike »

rosser wrote: post #81
dangerpowpow wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>India, used to being Nepal's big brother and pushing it around, subsequently closed their border with Nepal No we did not close any border. This is false information.

Dude, I was there . 30 seconds' googling yields citations from Time, the BBC, the NY Times, The Guardian, Wikipedia, and others. How about the guy whose hands were cut off when he tried to smuggle fuel across the border that wasn't closed? Or did that also not happen? EDIT: To be fair, I do remember noting a rather curious difference in tone and content in the reporting about the Nepali constitution's passage and the…

>How about the guy whose hands were cut off when he tried to smuggle fuel across the border that wasn't closed?

What? I've never been anywhere near the Nepali border, but have spent enough time in India to know that it's not lawless anarchy. I'll have to ask you for a source on this please.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#98

Post by chvid »

eva1984 wrote: post #73
jcoffland wrote: post #33

The American media seems to jump at any opportunity to dismiss China as an economic threat. It makes us feel more secure but leads to a public informed only about one side of China's story. Namely the part our ego can handle. China has regularly surpassed the US in number of cars sold since 2009. China also holds more US debt than any other country. Another way to put that is the US government owes China over 1 trill…

China's GDP is misleading, everyone including the government themselves doesn't trust it fully(see keqiang index), but odd enough, anyone else's method is more problematic. Then again, it is not reliable, but doesn't mean it is blatantly lying, you need to decide yourself to which degree you would bet on it.

If anything the GDPs of relatively poorer countries are underestimated.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#99

Post by mamon »

wobbleblob wrote: post #96
fasteddie wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US treasuries are at historically low rates -- if China dumped 'em all it probably wouldn't move the needle that much. And the reason they hold so many is not as some control play against the US -- its because it was the best way to devalue their currency enough to support exports.

> And the reason they hold so many is not as some control play against the US -- its because it was the best way to devalue their currency enough to support exports. Can you explain how that devalues a currency? Isn't a simpler explanation that the reason they hold so many is because US government bonds were and still are the safest way to invest your money?

To buy US bonds you need dollars to pay for them. So you have to buy dollars, paying with your own currency. Which changes the exchange ratio in favor of dollar by means of the supply/demand law. That's how buying bonds devalues juan.

Re: China's Subprime Crisis Is Here

#100

Post by zo1 »

Golf_Hotel_Mike wrote: post #97
rosser wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dude, I was there . 30 seconds' googling yields citations from Time, the BBC, the NY Times, The Guardian, Wikipedia, and others. How about the guy whose hands were cut off when he tried to smuggle fuel across the border that wasn't closed? Or did that also not happen? EDIT: To be fair, I do remember noting a rather curious difference in tone and content in the reporting about the Nepali constitution's passage and the…

>How about the guy whose hands were cut off when he tried to smuggle fuel across the border that wasn't closed? What? I've never been anywhere near the Nepali border, but have spent enough time in India to know that it's not lawless anarchy. I'll have to ask you for a source on this please.

Quite a few times I've read of mass lynchings in India:

https://www.google.com/search?q=india+lynch+mob

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