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All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

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Re: All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

#61

Post by dragonwriter »

tosseraccount wrote: post #47
ThrustVectoring wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that employers aren't allowed to measure and discriminate on IQ, but they are allowed to look at which college a candidate went to. Colleges, on the other hand, are allowed to measure and discriminate based on SAT score, which is highly correlated with IQ. And since college education is mostly a positional good (it helps you compete against people with worse education for limited jobs), there's a pretty fantasti…

What? Employers can't test for intelligence? Do you have a link that backs up your assertion that "employers aren't allowed to measure and discriminate on IQ".

Employers can, in fact, test for intelligence, and a number do (police departments excluding applicants who score too high on such tests -- and the cases validating the legality of that policy -- have been a subject of wide note.)

To the extent such test have racially disparate impact, there is a significant burden in showing that the test is a valid measure of ability to do the job for which it is used as part of the hiring process, but that burden is not impossible to meet.

Re: All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

#62

Post by zeteo »

> For generations, factories provided good jobs to people who never went to college, allowing families [...] to be upwardly mobile [...] unions at their prime helped create a “moral economy” in which wages rose both in firms with unions and those without them, and in which the average worker had a notable voice [...] lobbying on their behalf in Washington

This might be overstating the case somewhat. The very term "mass production" wasn't introduced until 1926 [1]. Some of the biggest unions were only formed in the 1930s [2] and their activity was largely suppressed during WWII. The golden age of union manufacturing jobs lasted 30 years at best (late 40s to late 70s' oil shocks).

The 50 year old whites are thus at the same time beneficiaries and victims of the success created by the "greatest generation". Their parents went through the Great Depression, fought WWII, and worked out a great compromise that shared the bounty of mass production equitably between unions and factory owners. The subsequent generation encountered far fewer hardships and inevitably took for granted a status quo that had, in fact, been difficult to achieve (and long in the making). It's hardly surprising that, in their middle to old age, many have trouble adapting to the computerization of the work place (a transformation at least as momentous as mass production). In addition, winning the Cold War has proved a very mixed blessing by bringing direct competition with billions who went through their own version of great depression (and possibly warfare) within living memory.

Interestingly enough, computerization (with the official end of Moore's law) and globalization (with China's pathologically slowing growth) are now leveling off. Will this allow a reprieve for downtrodden baby boomers? The upcoming years should make for very interesting politics.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_production

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Automobile_Workers#1930...

Re: All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

#63

Post by jimbobimbo »

meric wrote: post #43
rdlecler1 wrote: post #36

The problem is, is that 'good jobs' are hard to find even if you have a good education. If you do, you can look forward to 60-80 work weeks, expensive housing and child care, and of course massive student loan debt. Very few of the things that were available to the middle class 25 years ago are available to the best and brightest today. The question is, is there anything that can be done about it, it was the period b…

With some frugality, I think it's physically and economically possible. Imagine an America where grandparents (and great-grandparents if any) live with one of their children's family. Assuming an average of two children per grandparent, it will be half of the households will have 2 children, 2 parents, and 2 grandparents, and the other half the traditional nuclear family. The nursing home infrastructure will be much…

Have you ever tried to live under the same roof with an Alzheimer's sufferer? It's not a "50 year old couple will be able to converse and socialise with their 75 year old parent(s)" - it's a full time terrible, horrible job, exacerbated by the helplessness when watching your elders losing every last bit of their past selves.

Re: All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

#64

Post by adevine »

smt88 wrote: post #5
FussyZeus wrote: post #3

It's been obvious for a decade that the "go to the factory every week for 40 years and retire" job sector is on the decline, a decline which has accelerated rapidly more recently. There is no place in our economy for a bolt turner to earn $25 an hour, end of discussion. This is why I like the idea of at least reducing the cost of a college education, or preferably eliminating it. A regular high school degree is quick…

I personally disagree that college is the solution. Some people lack the financial stability required to excel in what is essentially a long, expensive vacation learning things that won't directly impact their earnings. I vehemently believe in liberal arts and the importance of people studying philosophy/literature/etc., but studying impractical things is a luxury. Other countries have robust retraining programs, so…

Totally agree, especially with the concept of universal basic income.

Over the past couple years I've come closer to the conclusion that the middle class is pretty much doomed, and it will take a big change in our economic system to cope. A middle class fundamentally requires a large number of well-paying "repetitive" or "algorithmic" jobs. Doesn't matter if they are blue collar or white collar, but there need to be a lot of jobs where the output is relatively standard - e.g. the widget was made properly, the car ended up at the right destination, the audit was completed, etc. In these jobs, there isn't really that much of a difference between a good product and great product - it's just a job that needs to be completed.

Contrast that with "creative" or "competitive" type jobs: actor, writer, graphic designer, etc. Those jobs can never support a large middle class, because by definition there is such a huge valuation difference between the best performers and everyone else - there will always be a huge amount of inequality in these professions because the best can command a much higher salary than those even slightly down the ladder.

The problem, of course, is that automation and software will eventually take away the vast majority of the repetitive jobs. If all you are left with are the creative/competitive type jobs, you are guaranteed to have a huge amount of inequality.

Re: All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

#65

Post by tokenadult »

ThrustVectoring wrote: post #37
Moshe_Silnorin wrote: post #7

I think it's worth pointing out that education is a filtering mechanism, if a terribly inefficient one. After basic maths and literacy are learned, it imparts little on the average student. A collage degree is a proxy for a reasonable IQ and moderately high conscientiousness. Thinking of education as an inefficient filtering mechanism helps illustrate why our frenzy for more education is misguided. Certainly more eff…

Note that employers aren't allowed to measure and discriminate on IQ, but they are allowed to look at which college a candidate went to. Colleges, on the other hand, are allowed to measure and discriminate based on SAT score, which is highly correlated with IQ. And since college education is mostly a positional good (it helps you compete against people with worse education for limited jobs), there's a pretty fantasti…

Note that employers aren't allowed to measure and discriminate on IQ, but they are allowed to look at which college a candidate went to.

Your statement is factually incorrect, but surely honestly made (as I used to have the same misimpression of the law in the United States). You received a bunch of replies (as subreplies) on the point of companies using college graduation as a proxy for IQ. I am trained as a lawyer. Even after I was in law practice, I still had the (mistaken) belief that the holding of the Duke Power case was as you say here (and several subreplies say below). But that is NOT the correct holding of the Duke Power case. In fact, the case held that educational requirements (in the case, those were high school diploma requirements) are just as legally suspect as IQ tests not validated for that job in that workplace if the diploma requirements have disparate impact on different racial groups applying for jobs in that workplace. On the other hand, either an IQ test or a diploma requirement can pass legal scrutiny if it can be shown to be related to bona fide job requirements.

I have a FAQ on the topic[1], which is one of my most popular Hacker News comments ever.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4613543

Re: All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

#66

Post by Slothrop99 »

digbyloftus wrote: post #52
tosseraccount wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? Employers can't test for intelligence? Do you have a link that backs up your assertion that "employers aren't allowed to measure and discriminate on IQ".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Griggs_v._Duke_Power_Co . >The effect of this decision has been to eliminate aptitude tests from the hiring process. During the intervening years, the college diploma has become the "de facto" tool by HR departments to winnow the flood of applications. Many jobs today require a college diploma, while before Griggs the same job did not.

Silicon Valley used to work around this with those infamous "Microsoft brainteaser" questions about how many manhole covers fit into a school bus or whatever. A lot of those questions were taken directly from a set of quiz books written by Jim Fixx. He was was a MENSA guy (high IQ society), and also more-or-less responsible for popularizing jogging in the US.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Fixx

Re: All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

#67

Post by slmyers »

ams6110 wrote: post #27
maxmax wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What is "success"? Is it better looking houses? More expensive cars? Fresher food? You need to think much more basic than that: Success is having a savings account, a roof over your head in a safe stable location so the kids can stay in the same school, reliable transportation, and a job that provides enough income for all of the above.

I don't like defining "success" as some kind of bare minimum. Success is, at least, being better than average.

I'm pretty sure the average American has close to no saving, the rate of home ownership is falling, and as the article states many well paying jobs are evaporating.

I think it's a fair measure of success to say that a successful person owns a house, has significant savings and a decent job. Perhaps a somewhat superficial success.

Re: All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

#68

Post by meric »

jimbobimbo wrote: post #63
meric wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With some frugality, I think it's physically and economically possible. Imagine an America where grandparents (and great-grandparents if any) live with one of their children's family. Assuming an average of two children per grandparent, it will be half of the households will have 2 children, 2 parents, and 2 grandparents, and the other half the traditional nuclear family. The nursing home infrastructure will be much…

Have you ever tried to live under the same roof with an Alzheimer's sufferer? It's not a "50 year old couple will be able to converse and socialise with their 75 year old parent(s)" - it's a full time terrible, horrible job, exacerbated by the helplessness when watching your elders losing every last bit of their past selves.

No but I grew up living with a mentally ill relative.

Re: All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

#69

Post by ThrustVectoring »

tokenadult wrote: post #65
ThrustVectoring wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that employers aren't allowed to measure and discriminate on IQ, but they are allowed to look at which college a candidate went to. Colleges, on the other hand, are allowed to measure and discriminate based on SAT score, which is highly correlated with IQ. And since college education is mostly a positional good (it helps you compete against people with worse education for limited jobs), there's a pretty fantasti…

Note that employers aren't allowed to measure and discriminate on IQ, but they are allowed to look at which college a candidate went to. Your statement is factually incorrect, but surely honestly made (as I used to have the same misimpression of the law in the United States). You received a bunch of replies (as subreplies) on the point of companies using college graduation as a proxy for IQ. I am trained as a lawyer.…

There's a distinction between what is legally permitted versus what you will get sued over. IQ tests will generally get you sued in the US. Diploma checks generally won't. Neither is legal if it has a disparate impact against minorities (unless you can demonstrate a bona-fide occupational requirement).

What I'm advocating is suing people until the perception that preferring college graduates is legally safe is gone.

Re: All Hollowed Out: The lonely poverty of America’s white working class

#70

Post by eli_gottlieb »

Moshe_Silnorin wrote: post #41
greggman wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But more panning in more places finds more gold does it not? Maybe I misunderstood your point. Stories like that of Jaime Escalante suggest that there's a huge number of undiscovered talent and/or that better teaching makes more talent. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaime_Escalante

That's impressive, but seems more like filtering. Taking the top 15 students in a high school and teaching them calculus doesn't prove that one can make people more intelligent through education, as 15 out of thousands is a huge filter - though still helping those kids was very nobel. As for the higher numbers later in his career, you have to imagine that with his fame intelligent students from other districts were l…

>There is also increasing evidence in the literature that the theorized transfer effect (that learning one skill increases your capacity to learn other unrelated skills) does not exist.

Interesting. Presuming that such a "transfer effect" is hypothesized to work the same way as transfer learning (in statistical learning, machine learning, cognitive science, etc.), this would be one of the first times mathematical models have predicted a cognitive capability should be commonplace that human beings failed to actually exhibit.

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