The stock should trade at $2 if you look at their financials. Growth stalled a while back. Etsy will never be able to compete with Pinterest. This is a $100 million dollar company in the guise of $1b. Going the same way as gilt group.
Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
271–276 of 276 posts
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems like this would be expected behavior to some extent, couldn't you short a stock right before lockups expire and make easy money?
The risk of the drop (at the time of lockup expiration) is priced into the stock before the lockup expires. So, if the lockups expire, and there is no big sell-off then, the stock price might go up.
Good point, thanks.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
Speaking with some knowledge of the company, it boggles the mind a little that they failed to snap up Shopify (or more likely one of that company's scrappier competitors) when Etsy got like $27M in 2008. Every single time Etsy didn't help a seller set up their own e-commerce site, someone else did, and this happened hundreds of thousands of times. And is still happening. But Etsy struggled with leadership and technic…
But in the early days many Etsy sellers didn't have their own e-commerce sites. A lot of them didn't even have websites outside of Etsy, often just a Facebook page. I'm not sure that's changed much.
You're mistaken. Etsy was for many people their first steps at e-commerce, but every seller who made sales on Etsy has asked themselves "What about all the people not on Etsy? How do I reach them?".
In 2005 Etsy's advantage was that creating your own standalone shop was hard, expensive, and ineffective. They shuffled CEO's while Shopify, BigCartel, WooCommerce, BigCommerce, and many others solved those problems. And Kickstarter proved you could make a lot of money without losing your cool indie cred.
There has always been a disconnect between what Etsy wanted to be (and there have been multiple versions of that) and what it's sellers (who are its customers) wanted. That grew into a chasm so big that Amazon saw light shining through it.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's super annoying when there's a strong and confident initial comment and the clarifying comment is jibber jabber.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/straddle.asp
Yes, I know what a straddle is, but it has almost nothing to do with the initial claim: "Its actual value is probably unchanged."
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
But in the early days many Etsy sellers didn't have their own e-commerce sites. A lot of them didn't even have websites outside of Etsy, often just a Facebook page. I'm not sure that's changed much.
You're mistaken. Etsy was for many people their first steps at e-commerce, but every seller who made sales on Etsy has asked themselves "What about all the people not on Etsy? How do I reach them?". In 2005 Etsy's advantage was that creating your own standalone shop was hard, expensive, and ineffective. They shuffled CEO's while Shopify, BigCartel, WooCommerce, BigCommerce, and many others solved those problems. And…
It would be interesting to see data to support whether this hypothesis holds up.
I have two gut feelings:
1. Hobbyist Etsy sellers don't dedicate the time and/or lack the business savvy to be running additional sales channels outside of Etsy. Additionally, even setting up a Shopify, etc. store requires some technical ability that you or I take for granted.
2. Semi-professional Etsy sellers, for example, those coming from operating eBay or Amazon Stores, were already using their other channels before Etsy. So they were sophisticated enough that it was cheap/easy to have someone whip up an osCommerce + PayPal site for them. I did this personally for a few clients already successfully selling on forums between 2005-2008.
Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months
#276There is no market. People want an iPhone 6, not a wooden necklace