Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

google.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

161–170 of 276 posts

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#161

Post by jethro_tell »

xianb wrote: post #109
criley2 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree entirely. Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a…

>profit on them. Nope. http://gawker.com/here-are-the-internal-documents-that-prove... Granted that businesses like Amazon are unprofitable, but Uber is not nearly going to be as stable

Isn't uber a long play on self driving cars that can be summoned with an app? That's why GM invested in lyft. They need someone to buy their fleet since the number of car owners is going to drop to a few companies in the next 20-50 years.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#162

Post by panorama »

danieltillett wrote: post #145
panorama wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is that number not believable? Like the comments you pointed out mention, it's likely gross not post-driver cut, likely includes more than just the 7-mile diameter of SF, includes tourists, surge pricing can be pricy, corporate comping, etc. I never incur surge pricing and infrequently take Uber yet I can easily pay $100-200 in Uber costs per month. Then you factor in the non-UberX options that are way more expen…

It is not believable because it is comparing oranges to apples. It is comparing the revenue of the SF taxi industry (not the dollars going through the drivers hands) to the dollars going through Uber for some area of unknown size around SF. It is also unbelievable if you try to do the bottom up revenue numbers. Uber claims to have 11,000 drivers in SF [1], but most of them are part time. This implies a monthly revenu…

Unfortunately the first link doesn't appear to direct correctly. I'm still willing to think 500M is plausible, with Uber Black and SUV included (is it safe to say these professional drivers make more than 3000/mo on Uber?). Even if it's not quite 500M, or maybe they needed to flub the geography or numbers to get to that number, they're still generating huge sums of revenue in what is only one large metropolitan city out of hundreds around the world.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#163

Post by mylons »

mrgordon wrote: post #153
mylons wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

airbnb has a real problem: VRBO. VRBO is routinely cheaper than airbnb, has been around longer, and doesn't have the legal issues, and has the support of the baby boomers. Good luck, airbnb.

VRBO is actually starting to copy Airbnb's pricing model because they're losing. It has worse legal issues in many areas because it is outright short term rentals instead of hosted rentals. Additionally, the response rate and speed is much worse than Airbnb which is all that matters to most baby boomer users. My dad gets frustrated as soon as instant booking isn't available like a hotel room

what's the pricing model they're copying, exactly? you mean the pricing model that airbnb copied from existing hotel chains (variable pricing?). very unique and innovative.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#164

Post by tracker1 »

askafriend wrote: post #127
criley2 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree entirely. Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a…

If Box was overvalued then Dropbox must just be fucked.

I think it comes down to funding, marketing, development and revenue models. Many companies succeed in funding, then effectively jump the shark in terms of marketing spend and try to massively scale their developer teams in order to increase feature churn, which has the opposite effect a lot of times, and then they've burned through all the cash before they can handle the scaling.

Other companies don't go full board, with more conservative growth in terms of features, but can scale more customers without the draw of huge marketing or in some cases smarter marketing. Viral-peer marketing works as long as your conversion out-paces your free sign-ups. I don't have any insights into Dropbox, but can say they're probably fine. There really isn't great competition in this space.. there's competition, but none of the cross-platform options are as good or at least not clearly better.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#165

Post by lloyd-christmas »

askafriend wrote: post #129
sumzup wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Twitter's able to monetize; it's just not able to sustain user growth.

The user numbers have basically flat for many quarters now. It's really really bad.

Define "Many quarters". 10% grown in 2015 is hardly "flat" (288m to 316m). It's definitely less than prior years and less than other social apps, but "flat" is a strong word.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#166

Post by tracker1 »

voronoff wrote: post #133
bpodgursky wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? AirBnB's valuation is 25B. It could make a trivial dent in the worldwide hotel market and crush that valuation many times over. Uber is 50B. The global taxi market alone is worth many multiples of 50B, and that's not counting all the delivery services, bus/public transit-replacements etc that Uber is pushing for. I'm not saying these companies WILL capture all of their current markets, but it's ridiculous to sa…

Many multiples? Try two to three, currently. "For instance, there seems to be a consensus that the most lucrative cab market in the world is in Japan, where yearly revenues are estimated to be about $20 billion to $25 billion just in Tokyo, followed by the United Kingdom with revenues of $14 billion, the bulk from London, and the U.S. with $11 billion overall and about $3 billion in New York. Assuming taxi revenues i…

Is that per-year, or the expected lifetime of a given company? The value of a company isn't the most it can be expected to make in a single year.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#167

Post by wdewind »

w1ntermute wrote: post #103
sremani wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSLA is a different beast, I think should be excluded. The rest are fair.

Also, Wayfair hasn't seen a huge appreciation and TripAdvisor has been around since 2000 (admittedly, Yelp was founded in 2004). And HubSpot and Wayfair are based in Boston, and have been relatively underhyped. Facebook, however, has been demonstrably successful since going public, despite the massive SV hype. Zuckerberg and his team deserve full credit for delivering on a successful mobile monetization strategy and…

> Facebook, however, has been demonstrably successful since going public

Yes but you're ignoring that it took more than a year for FB to get back up to its IPO price after going public

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#168

Post by tracker1 »

sly_foxx wrote: post #126
bpodgursky wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? AirBnB's valuation is 25B. It could make a trivial dent in the worldwide hotel market and crush that valuation many times over. Uber is 50B. The global taxi market alone is worth many multiples of 50B, and that's not counting all the delivery services, bus/public transit-replacements etc that Uber is pushing for. I'm not saying these companies WILL capture all of their current markets, but it's ridiculous to sa…

These hypothetical situations need to be taken with a grain of salt. Many big companies have tried expanding and taking over other markers, unrelated to their core business - they usually fail or acquire a company in that space(e.g. Google-YT; Facebook-Instagram etc.)

I think that Uber could make a killing as a general delivery service... If you included smaller "hand-offs" for drivers around town, they wouldn't match UPS/Fedex for remote distribution, even overnight, but could definitely be a boon for local businesses.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#169

Post by jqm »

theklub wrote: post #40
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

I could have told you all of those would end up that way. Its like a list of fads.

Timing is the key. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#170

Post by tracker1 »

supster wrote: post #102
edgyswingset wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say Zynga has a pretty clear business model.

It's pretty hard to produce new viral games at low cost in a consistent fashion.

GP didn't say it was a good, effective or predictable business model.. ;-)
Post reply on HN