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Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

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Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#101

Post by adventured »

jonknee wrote: post #78
adventured wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not an opinion that $4.8 billion in sales and one of the largest Web properties, is worth more than zero. That's easily backed up by comps such as AOL, Yahoo's nearly 20 years of being public along with how the markets treated it, and how they were valued prior to the Alibaba stake becoming valuable (hint: they never received a negative valuation, even in the absolute worst of times post dotcom bubble when their…

Well you should buy some shares because Wall Street currently think Core Yahoo is worthless.

That's incorrect. Wall Street thinks the Alibaba stake, Yahoo Japan stake and its cash holdings are worth less than their face value - as is always the case (see: how EMC's VMWare stake has always been discounted historically). For numerous reasons, the most obvious of which is: investors can never realize the entire face value of those holdings, so they never give a $1 to $1 value to them.

We can simplify this really fast: give me one example of a public company of even remotely similar financials trading with a negative market cap in the last ~30 years in the US equity markets.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#102

Post by supster »

edgyswingset wrote: post #62
darawk wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Uber and Airbnb are particularly comparable to these companies. Uber and Airbnb have very clear business models.

I'd say Zynga has a pretty clear business model.

It's pretty hard to produce new viral games at low cost in a consistent fashion.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#103

Post by w1ntermute »

sremani wrote: post #98
replicatorblog wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook: $38.23 to $94.97 (May '12 - present) [0] Wayfair: $32.18 to $37.81 (Oct '14 - present)[1] TripAdvisor: $27.91 to $70.63 (Dec '11 - Present)[2] Hubspot: $29.05 to $50.04 (Oct '14 - Present) [3] Tesla: $10.40 to $204.99 (Jul '10 - Present ) [4] ZenDesk: $15.25 to $23.10 (May '14 - Present) [5] LinkedIn: $90.09 to $196.10 (May '11 - Present) [6] 0: https://www.google.com/finance?q=facebook&ei=OGyZVsiyEYqNmAG..…

TSLA is a different beast, I think should be excluded. The rest are fair.

Also, Wayfair hasn't seen a huge appreciation and TripAdvisor has been around since 2000 (admittedly, Yelp was founded in 2004). And HubSpot and Wayfair are based in Boston, and have been relatively underhyped.

Facebook, however, has been demonstrably successful since going public, despite the massive SV hype. Zuckerberg and his team deserve full credit for delivering on a successful mobile monetization strategy and making some great acquisitions (particularly Instagram, given its acquisition price and its estimated valuation now.)

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#104

Post by supster »

sauere wrote: post #88
darawk wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Uber and Airbnb are particularly comparable to these companies. Uber and Airbnb have very clear business models.

And Box? They had a simple, clear defined business model.

Great business, great model, simply overvalued (expectations exceeded reality). Probably a winner in the long run IMO.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#105

Post by RKoutnik »

danieltillett wrote: post #76
darawk wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Uber and Airbnb are particularly comparable to these companies. Uber and Airbnb have very clear business models.

They have very clear business models, but even if they capture 100% of their market the possible revenue can’t support their current valuations. I think both these businesses are fantastic businesses that will make a lot of money, but I would not buy at their current valuations.

The annual revenue for taxis in SF was ~$100MM. Uber's annual SF revenue is estimated to be $500MM. So Uber has "captured" 500% of the market. Does that explain their valuation?

They're not trying to capture an old market, they're building a new one.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#106

Post by bpodgursky »

danieltillett wrote: post #76
darawk wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Uber and Airbnb are particularly comparable to these companies. Uber and Airbnb have very clear business models.

They have very clear business models, but even if they capture 100% of their market the possible revenue can’t support their current valuations. I think both these businesses are fantastic businesses that will make a lot of money, but I would not buy at their current valuations.

What?

AirBnB's valuation is 25B. It could make a trivial dent in the worldwide hotel market and crush that valuation many times over.

Uber is 50B. The global taxi market alone is worth many multiples of 50B, and that's not counting all the delivery services, bus/public transit-replacements etc that Uber is pushing for.

I'm not saying these companies WILL capture all of their current markets, but it's ridiculous to say the valuations wouldn't be supported if they captured the whole market.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#107

Post by jonathankoren »

seizethecheese wrote: post #94
replicatorblog wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook: $38.23 to $94.97 (May '12 - present) [0] Wayfair: $32.18 to $37.81 (Oct '14 - present)[1] TripAdvisor: $27.91 to $70.63 (Dec '11 - Present)[2] Hubspot: $29.05 to $50.04 (Oct '14 - Present) [3] Tesla: $10.40 to $204.99 (Jul '10 - Present ) [4] ZenDesk: $15.25 to $23.10 (May '14 - Present) [5] LinkedIn: $90.09 to $196.10 (May '11 - Present) [6] 0: https://www.google.com/finance?q=facebook&ei=OGyZVsiyEYqNmAG..…

Cherrypicked vs. cherrypicked. The only way to settle this is for someone to make a weighted index of tech IPOs in the last n years.

weighted how?

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#108

Post by replicatorblog »

sremani wrote: post #98
replicatorblog wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook: $38.23 to $94.97 (May '12 - present) [0] Wayfair: $32.18 to $37.81 (Oct '14 - present)[1] TripAdvisor: $27.91 to $70.63 (Dec '11 - Present)[2] Hubspot: $29.05 to $50.04 (Oct '14 - Present) [3] Tesla: $10.40 to $204.99 (Jul '10 - Present ) [4] ZenDesk: $15.25 to $23.10 (May '14 - Present) [5] LinkedIn: $90.09 to $196.10 (May '11 - Present) [6] 0: https://www.google.com/finance?q=facebook&ei=OGyZVsiyEYqNmAG..…

TSLA is a different beast, I think should be excluded. The rest are fair.

Added ZenDesk to make up for TSLA :)

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#109

Post by xianb »

criley2 wrote: post #61
pyrrhotech wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

Disagree entirely. Twitter? No good way to monetize. Groupon? Failed to monetize effectively after virality faded and without a moat competitors did the same thing. Yelp? A web version of the BBB protection scheme whose profit comes from the shake down protection racket against small businesses, not from users. Zynga had no moat and other companies quickly did the same thing with much leaner overhead, like King and a…

>profit on them. Nope. http://gawker.com/here-are-the-internal-documents-that-prove...

Granted that businesses like Amazon are unprofitable, but Uber is not nearly going to be as stable

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#110

Post by supster »

jonathankoren wrote: post #107
seizethecheese wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cherrypicked vs. cherrypicked. The only way to settle this is for someone to make a weighted index of tech IPOs in the last n years.

weighted how?

free float capitalization (e.g. http://www.renaissancecapital.com/index/ipousa.aspx)
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