141–150 of 276 posts
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Exactly. I honestly don't see the problem. Some VC lost a bunch of money? Oh well!
No the limited partners lost some money. Guess who they happen to be?
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What? AirBnB's valuation is 25B. It could make a trivial dent in the worldwide hotel market and crush that valuation many times over. Uber is 50B. The global taxi market alone is worth many multiples of 50B, and that's not counting all the delivery services, bus/public transit-replacements etc that Uber is pushing for. I'm not saying these companies WILL capture all of their current markets, but it's ridiculous to sa…
Many multiples? Try two to three, currently. "For instance, there seems to be a consensus that the most lucrative cab market in the world is in Japan, where yearly revenues are estimated to be about $20 billion to $25 billion just in Tokyo, followed by the United Kingdom with revenues of $14 billion, the bulk from London, and the U.S. with $11 billion overall and about $3 billion in New York. Assuming taxi revenues i…
The lockup agreement expired. Looks like employees and executives are selling up big time. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/etsy-shares-fall-after-expi...
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airbnb has a real problem: VRBO. VRBO is routinely cheaper than airbnb, has been around longer, and doesn't have the legal issues, and has the support of the baby boomers. Good luck, airbnb.
This is the first time I've seen the argument that X company is in trouble because the baby boomers use the other platform. AirBnb raised $1b last year, projecting 2015 revenues at $900m [0]. Until financials show otherwise, they appear to be doing just fine. [0]: http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-math-of-airbnbs-24-bi...
They're also the property owners right now, relative to the millennials.
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Do you really believe that Uber is capturing $500 million out of SF alone? This number is totally unbelievable (and unverifiable), but even if it were true where is the evidence that this is not the result of a pathologically defective taxi market in SF. edit. The comments on this story sum up the ludicrous nature of this $500 million dollar revenue [1] - $625 per person per year! 1. http://sfist.com/2015/01/19/uber_…
Why is that number not believable? Like the comments you pointed out mention, it's likely gross not post-driver cut, likely includes more than just the 7-mile diameter of SF, includes tourists, surge pricing can be pricy, corporate comping, etc. I never incur surge pricing and infrequently take Uber yet I can easily pay $100-200 in Uber costs per month. Then you factor in the non-UberX options that are way more expen…
It is also unbelievable if you try to do the bottom up revenue numbers. Uber claims to have 11,000 drivers in SF [1], but most of them are part time. This implies a monthly revenue per driver of ~$3800 at the $500 million revenue number. Actual data from surveying SF Uber drivers working more than 41 hours a week showed they only generated revenue of $2971 a month [2]. The drivers working part time (20 − 25 hours a week) only generated revenue of $1376 a month. I can’t think of a way of making the top down and bottom up numbers agree.
Edit. I fixed the broken link [1].
1. http://archives.sfexaminer.com/sanfrancisco/uber-releases-dr...
2. http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Lyft-Uber-drivers-tur...
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airbnb has a real problem: VRBO. VRBO is routinely cheaper than airbnb, has been around longer, and doesn't have the legal issues, and has the support of the baby boomers. Good luck, airbnb.
Have you ever tried to rent from VRBO? I did a couple years ago and have never been back. Approx 30 calls, 6 or 7 responded, a couple of those hadn't kept their calendars up-to-date, and only 2 actually were available and matched the info on the site. I was doing my best to spend $6k on a ski vacation and vrbo just didn't want to cooperate. The whole thing was a giant waste of time.
People in tech just assume airbnb is better.
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They have very clear business models, but even if they capture 100% of their market the possible revenue can’t support their current valuations. I think both these businesses are fantastic businesses that will make a lot of money, but I would not buy at their current valuations.
What? AirBnB's valuation is 25B. It could make a trivial dent in the worldwide hotel market and crush that valuation many times over. Uber is 50B. The global taxi market alone is worth many multiples of 50B, and that's not counting all the delivery services, bus/public transit-replacements etc that Uber is pushing for. I'm not saying these companies WILL capture all of their current markets, but it's ridiculous to sa…
How defensible is the model when then either don't own the real estate (even McDonalds is famous for making money this way) or have contracts to manage the real estate (as many hotels that are now management companies do).
Right now they may seem to own both the people who have places to rent and the people who want to rent but in no way is that as solid as having actual hard assets (or even long term contracts and most importantly a hotel brand). Or even in the case of an Amazon warehousing and logistics (or owning actual data centers).
Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…
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No the limited partners lost some money. Guess who they happen to be?
So what? As an LP, they made the choice to let someone else actively manage their money. Part of the risk/reward trade-off when using VC as an investment vehicle.
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AirBNB (and Uber) don't own or control any of the property that they are collecting transactions and fees on. They rely on extraction of value from independent contractors; if a viable alternative exists, those contractors can dump them in seconds (or however long it takes to download the alternative app/website).
The barriers to entry for any competitors are highly behavioral. Consumers are used to using (and implicitly trusting) AirBnB and Uber. Any new entrants would have to replicate that. This is part of the reason why Jet.com will never beat Amazon.