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Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

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Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#51

Post by Yrlec »

theklub wrote: post #40
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

I could have told you all of those would end up that way. Its like a list of fads.

If only there was a way to make money off of knowledge about a stock's future...

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#52

Post by SEJeff »

w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

This is just the market reflecting reality. Most of the "unicorns" aren't actually worth the billion or so dollars their valuations are at. They don't generate enough of really anything that is worth the silly valuations they get. This is why free markets are a good thing. They eventually correct themselves.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#53

Post by kasey_junk »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #7
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

If there was only an ETF for shorting the startup tech sector...

So, I'm kind of picking on you here, but people always say this about things they think are bad.

But there are pretty big structural differences between going short and going long. In particular, you need to know much more precisely when the bad things are going to happen. Sometime do a short (and if you already have, great, you know what I'm talking about). Its not nearly the "haha how stupid are they", people think it is.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#54

Post by dpe82 »

sremani wrote: post #16
VeilEm wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What point are you making? Perhaps it isn't too hard to look at examples of tech companies that have done well since IPO. This is quintessential cherry picking. The market in general has been downward recently but Atlassian and Godaddy are holding their own for example: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:TEAM https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:GDDY

It is cherry picking, but you can cherry pick too for your case. Other than FB who is doing great?

Google is up 40% in the past year.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#55

Post by toomuchtodo »

adventured wrote: post #39
toomuchtodo wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's only Alibaba stock they hold that creates any "value" in Yahoo. "The latter part of the business is clearly pulling the former along. Here’s how to think about it: Yahoo has a stock market value of $34.1 billion, and owns a 24 percent stake in Alibaba. Estimates for the current value of Alibaba, which is planning an IPO, range between $75 billion and $125 billion. If it comes in at the low end of that range, Yah…

In fact they're not valued at zero. It's the Alibaba stake that is discounted, as all cash and assets on a balance sheet are by investors. That's trivially easy to prove by looking at Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Berkshire Hathaway, or Apple's financials. If Yahoo were floated on the public market, with $4.8 billion in sales and $200 +/- million in profit, the valuation they would receive is not zero. Proof? See: the…

In reality, these are just are opinions you and I have. We'll find out in the next 18 months what the fate (and the value) of Yahoo is.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#56

Post by curun1r »

tyre wrote: post #10
sulam wrote: post #5

To be clear, it's lost XX% of it's market cap. The market cap is a knowingly-flawed assessment of earnings potential for a company. Its actual value is probably unchanged.

Market cap is just value of a single share * number of shares outstanding. Do you have a better way of valuing a publicly-traded company? When you say "its actual value is probably unchanged", what value are you talking about? If you think there is a disconnect between share price and value (however you're measuring that), then it is an excellent opportunity to arbitrage an inefficient market.

The way I read his comment was a difference between perceived value and actual value. Market share is equivalent to perceived value, not actual value. So the comment was remarking that the drop in share price could be the result of inflated expectations becoming more realistic rather than a loss of actual value of the company.

The biggest difference between perceived and actual value that I'm aware of is the tulip mania that early 1600s. In hindsight, it's pretty obvious that flowers didn't become less valuable in the short time period between the height and the collapse. Any utility or purpose they had, other than resale, was retained in its entirety. But the price difference was massive. There are many who believe we're in our own era of unicorn mania where it will become apparent, again in hindsight, that they were never as valuable as people made them out to be.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#57

Post by tootie »

paulcole wrote: post #31
rail2rail wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The value of Etsy changed when Amazon entered its space. It is objectively worth less now that the 800 lb gorilla has decided to eat Etsy's lunch.

I don't think this has much to do with it. Amazon's attempt was really half-assed (classic Amazon, to be honest). The only mention of Handmade on the Amazon homepage is in the "Search by Category" dropdown. The real issue in my opinion is that Etsy discovered that they couldn't keep growing without opening their doors to cheap non-handmade shit. Which they've done. And their search/discoverability is absolutely awful…

I think the ones who really ate their lunch were companies like Shopify.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#58

Post by jamisteven »

pyrrhotech wrote: post #35
w1ntermute wrote: post #3

Angie's List: from $28 in Jul 2013 to $9[0] Box: from $24 in Jan 2015 to $10[1] GoPro: from $87 in Oct 2014 to $11[2] Groupon: from $26 in Nov 2011 to $2.60[3] GrubHub: from $46 in Apr 2015 to $21[4] Twitter: from $70 in Jan 2014 to $18[5] Yelp: from $97 in Mar 2014 to $21[6] Zillow: from $121 in Feb 2015 to $22[7] Zynga: from $15 in Mar 2012 to $2[8] 0: http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANGI 1: http://www.google.com/f…

Soon we will see uber, airbnb and dropbox added to this list. The problem is the new VC-funded startup model is a sham to rip off the public. Basically build a bunch of hype around fad-based, unprofitable companies with unsustainable business models and capture massive valuation of ~50x sales before going IPO and then insiders dump all the overvalued shares on the naive dumb money and only stick around long enough to…

I highly doubt this will be happening to the likes of Uber or AirBNB anytime soon, for one Travis Kalanik is one of the brightest guys on the planet and relentless in his efforts, much like Jobs in his prime. AirBNB will face more challenges but the amount of monetary funds it collects in transactions and fee's it is collecting will keep it at the top for a long long time. Anytime a company puts money back into the hands of the people, you have a good product. Etsy lost its shit because they decided to start letting every one and their mother sell on its site, and it ruined their core business model, which was selling vintage artisan goods.

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#59

Post by toomuchtodo »

kasey_junk wrote: post #53
toomuchtodo wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If there was only an ETF for shorting the startup tech sector...

So, I'm kind of picking on you here, but people always say this about things they think are bad. But there are pretty big structural differences between going short and going long. In particular, you need to know much more precisely when the bad things are going to happen. Sometime do a short (and if you already have, great, you know what I'm talking about). Its not nearly the "haha how stupid are they", people think…

It's okay to pick on me, I wrote the comment without putting a lot of context in it. I usually stick to trading commodities, not equities.

My comment really was saying, "I believe that tech startups have significant headwinds, poor underlying fundamentals, and would like a simple way to capture the profits from trades made around those assumptions."

Re: Etsy stock has lost 76% of its value in 9 months

#60

Post by radicaldreamer »

sulam wrote: post #17
tyre wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market cap is just value of a single share * number of shares outstanding. Do you have a better way of valuing a publicly-traded company? When you say "its actual value is probably unchanged", what value are you talking about? If you think there is a disconnect between share price and value (however you're measuring that), then it is an excellent opportunity to arbitrage an inefficient market.

I _know_ there's a disconnect between the share price and the value, I just don't know what direction it's going to go in. This is why straddles are so much fun. :) The efficiency of markets is widely overrated.

It's super annoying when there's a strong and confident initial comment and the clarifying comment is jibber jabber.
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