Finland’s basic income plan could change everything • Hacker News Board

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#101

Post by phillc73 » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:25 PM UTC

mikeash wrote: post #27

vinceguidry wrote: post #12

I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz. The idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital…

The people who receive checks from the government every month are already preselected for failure. You don't get a government check at random, you get it for being disabled, for being too old to work, for being incapable of holding down any sort of job, etc. Looking at them to see how the population at large might react to basic income is not going to be informative.

Not in every case and not in every country.

I receive a government payment every month in the form of child support allowance. Everyone's entitled to it in the country where I live, as long as they have children.

I hold down a job and don't believe I'm pre-selected for failure because I claim the welfare allowance I'm entitled to.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#102

Post by stcredzero » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:26 PM UTC

manyoso wrote: post #95

Animats wrote: post #88

The US had this from the 1935 to 1996 - a broad welfare program. During the first Great Depression, the US was the employer of last resort, with the WPA hiring millions of people to do public works. During WWII, there was a labor shortage, and that ended. After the war, large public housing projects were built. There were people who spent much of their lives on welfare. Until the Reagan years, there were very few hom…

No, we did not. Again, that welfare program is very different from the basic income described here in many ways. Those differences are crucial to understanding the benefits of a basic income in comparison to the broad welfare program you reference. One such difference being that everyone in a society gets the basic income with no strings attached meaning that there is no perverse incentive not to work. With a basic i…

What is the evidence with regards to the benefit or detriment of the fear of starving?

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#103

Post by beat » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:27 PM UTC

chc wrote: post #8

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you see it as different from any other positive thing about a country? Good educational and job opportunities, lack of pollution, effective healthcare and so on, your children not having bombs dropped on them, pretty much anything that makes a country better for the people who live there will make it more attractive to immigrants.

I think the fear is that it will disproportionately attract people who are a net drag on society. People being born into a society will show a wide range of personality types and can be molded further by society into what it needs, but people who move to a country specifically for a basic income might tend to be pathological cases.

Nobody who is so lazy that they won't work a job is going to go through all the challenges of legal immigration just for welfare. It's a basic logic issue.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#104

Post by vinceguidry » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:29 PM UTC

api wrote: post #55

vinceguidry wrote: post #12

I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz. The idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital…

You can live on basic income and/or welfare, but not all that well. You'll be poor. You'll be living in a bad neighborhood or a crummy tiny apartment and won't be able to buy very much. Most ambitious people -- the people who have personality characteristics that lead them to achieve interesting things -- want more than this. As a result, most are not willing to live exclusively on the dole. The thing a basic income…

> You'll be poor.

Most people are poor.

> Most ambitious people

Most people are not ambitious.

> Personally I think a minimal basic income could go a long way toward eliminating bullshit jobs

Is that something we really want? I read an article a few months ago about a government program that literally created bullshit jobs for willing, unemployed people to go to so they could keep up their skills.

People who went through the program reported increased feelings of well-being from the conjured-up sense of purpose.

Personally, I'd prefer a bullshit job over no job. Hell, even in a non-bullshit job, there are plenty of things that come with it that are bullshit.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#105

Post by phillc73 » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:30 PM UTC

gnaritas wrote: post #32

vinceguidry wrote: post #12

I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz. The idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital…

> he idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital could rise out of nowhere and carry us all into a new age. That is not at all what basic income is about. The point of basic income is not as a means to enable anything; it's a natural byproduct of and sol…

Perhaps it's a step along the road to a post-scarcity economy.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#106

Post by stcredzero » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:30 PM UTC

benten10 wrote: post #38

vinceguidry wrote: post #12

I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz. The idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital…

A really good example to look at is (apparently) the case of how Arab migrants feel 'included' in Belgium vs. in Canada. Apparently, in Belgium, the welfare system is targeted towards providing financial incentives to less-fortunate people, awhile the Canadian welfare system is more directed towards 'fulfilling life'. Apparently a lot of immigrants to Belgium migrate to Canada even if they make more 'free' money in B…

Searching "Tyler Cowen Belgium Canada" isn't being helpful. Could you post a link?

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#107

Post by vinceguidry » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:30 PM UTC

gnaritas wrote: post #87

vinceguidry wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The point of basic income is not as a means to enable anything; it's a natural byproduct of and solution to a problem, the problem of ever increasing automation removing the need for human labor. I disagree. Humans tend to create new market segments in response to this problem. Service jobs, creative jobs, people are remarkably effective at finding ways to be productive. Basic income almost seems like a measure foc…

> I disagree. Humans tend to create new market segments in response to this problem. You can disagree if you like, but you're relying on the past to make your presumption that humans will just create more markets; the future of automation isn't like the past, future automation will include AI and is already doing so. AI changes the game, the future is not like the past, humans won't just do something else. Labor base…

Haha.

Well, let's cross that bridge when we get there.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#108

Post by stevesearer » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:31 PM UTC

beat wrote: post #98

stevesearer wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One question I have about BI is if it replaces other forms of social welfare (food stamps, unemployment, etc...), what happens when some percentage of people inevitably make decisions and still cannot afford the basics of what BI should cover? Will a new set of social welfare programs replace the ones that were previously removed?

If BI isn't enough to replace existing welfare systems, then it isn't enough. You can't half-ass something like this.

I'm more speaking to what I believe is the inevitability of some people making bad decisions (like buying a bunch of powerball tickets or betting your money at the racetrack or something.) with the money they receive and then not being able to afford the basics.

There would obviously be many people who are benefitted by BI, but my question is more wondering what happens to the percentage of people that end up still needing extra help.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#109

Post by mikeash » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:31 PM UTC

vinceguidry wrote: post #100

mikeash wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd want to look at state budgets too, since a lot of social programs happen there. Basic income is supposed to replace social security, unemployment, food stamps, and more. That's not a huge change to the number, but it's decent. There's no doubt taxes would need to increase to fund such a program, of course.

> There's no doubt taxes would need to increase to fund such a program, of course. Who would pay them?

Workers? It's not like everybody would stop working. The number of people content with $1,000/month is going to be pretty low.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#110

Post by mikeash » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:33 PM UTC

phillc73 wrote: post #101

mikeash wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people who receive checks from the government every month are already preselected for failure. You don't get a government check at random, you get it for being disabled, for being too old to work, for being incapable of holding down any sort of job, etc. Looking at them to see how the population at large might react to basic income is not going to be informative.

Not in every case and not in every country. I receive a government payment every month in the form of child support allowance. Everyone's entitled to it in the country where I live, as long as they have children. I hold down a job and don't believe I'm pre-selected for failure because I claim the welfare allowance I'm entitled to.

That's a good point, but then again you also wouldn't fit into the original point that people receiving government benefits aren't accomplishing things.