Finland’s basic income plan could change everything • Hacker News Board

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#81

Post by keithba » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:04 PM UTC

vinceguidry wrote: post #12

I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz. The idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital…

>> There should already be a not-so-huge wave of accomplishment coming from all these people. Not to belittle them and their abilities, but there isn't.

Two thoughts here: 1) What specifically do you mean by "wave of accomplishment"? How should that be measured?

2) You will need to cite some proof of this assertion. I can think of many anecdotes of successful people (J.K. Rowling, for instance) who achieved success while on welfare.

>>Modern Western societies are rich enough that smart, motivated individuals can mostly rise to the level of their own ability.

Not sure this true, but I'd like to see any data you have on this point as well. As it stands, social and economic mobility is limited by birth, see http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/reports/20...

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#82

Post by rm445 » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:05 PM UTC

Lots of comments and everyone is debating based on their intuition. Basic income is a fascinating idea, but it seems like advocates would love to see a huge place like the USA commit and pile in, when a small trial run would be much more sensible.

Finland would be a fantastic place to trial basic income. It's a rich sovereign nation with a population of under 6 million, a GDP of less than a quarter of a $trillion, and close cultural ties with lots of other rich countries. If basic income were the worst thing to ever happen and people were dying in the streets, friendly neighbours could bail the country out. And if all went well, it could be a nice template for larger countries to safely try. Ideally other countries where the idea has support should offer Finland a guarantee of support-if-needed in return for going first.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#83

Post by CaptSpify » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:05 PM UTC

vinceguidry wrote: post #12

I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz. The idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital…

> I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz.

I'm the same way. I'm excited that we as a species are testing it out, but I'm also glad that it's not my direct economy it's being tested on. I really hope it's successful, and I think it can be, but it's also quite risky.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#84

Post by jfaucett » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:06 PM UTC

Could an economist weigh in on this?

Naively, this seems ridiculously expensive to me. If you wanted to eradicate poverty with this policy, say pay everyone 60% of the mean income, that means the gov't will need to raise taxes by some amount X, in order to provide a corresponding 10% of mean earnings to every member of the population. If you do the quick math for a 5% value of X that would mean an increase in taxes of 30% (on top of the already existing education, national security, health care taxes), so taxes could easily approach 60% or more, unless it is feasible to have a very small value for X mapping onto 10% mean income increase...

Anyway, I'm not an economist and would very much like to hear what one has to say about this idea, because it does seem to good to be true.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#85

Post by hvfhhvv » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:07 PM UTC

vinceguidry wrote: post #12

I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz. The idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital…

You are missing the fact that being poor does not just effect the current generation. The stress induced by living on low income lowers the prospects of the children of these families. Which in turn effects the prospects of the children of the children. The effects of stress are pronounced and greatly effect both quality of life and productivity. Universal income seeks to reduce this stress and give eryone a fairer shot at life. If you think living on benefits is easy you should try it for a couple of months.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#86

Post by 1024core » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:07 PM UTC

Why wouldn't inflation swell up to soak up the UBI? If I'm a landlord in a poor(er) area of town, charging $500/mo for an apartment, and UBI is $1000/mo, then why shouldn't I raise my rent to, say $1000/mo because my tenants now have extra money? (Ignore rent-control for now).

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#87

Post by gnaritas » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:07 PM UTC

vinceguidry wrote: post #62

gnaritas wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> he idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital could rise out of nowhere and carry us all into a new age. That is not at all what basic income is about. The point of basic income is not as a means to enable anything; it's a natural byproduct of and sol…

> The point of basic income is not as a means to enable anything; it's a natural byproduct of and solution to a problem, the problem of ever increasing automation removing the need for human labor. I disagree. Humans tend to create new market segments in response to this problem. Service jobs, creative jobs, people are remarkably effective at finding ways to be productive. Basic income almost seems like a measure foc…

> I disagree. Humans tend to create new market segments in response to this problem.

You can disagree if you like, but you're relying on the past to make your presumption that humans will just create more markets; the future of automation isn't like the past, future automation will include AI and is already doing so. AI changes the game, the future is not like the past, humans won't just do something else. Labor based economies must end at some point, there simply won't be enough demand for labor to keep an economy going.

> Do you seriously think automation means less human labor is needed?

If you don't, you're not paying attention to the world.

> Automation means less labor is needed to produce certain kinds of goods. We can always find things for people to do.

Absolutely wrong; the automation that is coming will leave little for people to do as it'll always be cheaper to have a machine do it and an intelligent machine will be able to do anything a human can. All goods, all services, not just "certain kinds" will be done by machines; your doctor will be a machine, your housekeeper, masseuse, waitress, all of them, robots.

The idea that there's always going to be some way to sell your own labor is antiquated and wrong; basic income is meant as a solution to the collapse of labor markets that is coming from our continued increases in production via automation, and it is coming, and no, there won't be some other job you can do... machines will do all the jobs. Humans will leisure or find other means to feel productive but goods and services will not be distributed by means of a labor based economy.

The labor based economies of the world are on their deathbeds; we're currently calling this structural unemployment due to globalization, it's all the same problem, the future isn't based on human labor or labor based economies.

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#88

Post by Animats » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:09 PM UTC

The US had this from the 1935 to 1996 - a broad welfare program. During the first Great Depression, the US was the employer of last resort, with the WPA hiring millions of people to do public works. During WWII, there was a labor shortage, and that ended. After the war, large public housing projects were built. There were people who spent much of their lives on welfare.

Until the Reagan years, there were very few homeless people. But there were a lot of people who were just warehoused in public housing for their whole lives. Most of them black. That didn't work.[1] The UK did something similar, "the dole", until the 1980s under Thatcher. That, too, produced a large non-working population.

We have a productive enough society to pay for welfare. But it generates a huge, useless, and troublesome underclass.

[1] http://ced.berkeley.edu/bpj/2013/06/the-robert-taylor-homes-...

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#89

Post by redblacktree » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:09 PM UTC

cmdkeen wrote: post #15

This is all tied up in the Scottish independence debate, a "once in a generation vote" which is set to be replayed in the next few years because the "wrong" outcome happened. The economic argument for independence has collapsed since, especially with the collapse in the price of oil. That given this background the article could say things like there being benefits to the health system from "ending poverty" given the…

Could you explain what you mean by this?

> A basic citizen income is incredibly expensive and essentially a massive benefit to the richer classes.

How does it benefit the rich in particular?

Re: Finland’s basic income plan could change everything

#90

Post by Florin_Andrei » Fri, Jan 15, 2016, 9:09 PM UTC

vinceguidry wrote: post #12

I'm cautiously enthusiastic about basic income. I want to believe that it really can change everything, until that nagging doubt of "but human nature just doesn't work that way!" inevitably kills the buzz. The idea behind basic income is to remove day-to-day struggle from people's lives. If only they didn't have to worry where their next rent check is coming from, then potentially a huge groundswell of human capital…

> Plenty of people already receive checks from the government every month that they live on, in exchange for no real work responsibilities. Like, a whole lot of people. There should already be a not-so-huge wave of accomplishment coming from all these people. Not to belittle them and their abilities, but there isn't.

There's some kind of selection bias there already. I'm not saying those people were not creative, passionate, hard-working to begin with. But many have ended up in that situation after going through things that tend to, well, crush you, for lack of a better word.