Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

nytimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

341–350 of 402 posts

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#341

Post by danans »

MajorLOL wrote: post #334
danans wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most people I know who work in the trades own the vehicle as part of their business, and have separate passenger car(s) for hauling family. The vehicle subscription would replace the passenger car, not the truck used for heavy work, not at the least because the depreciation of the work vehicle is deductible as a business expense. Also, a vehicle actively used for construction work is already heavily utilized (it is h…

If 60% of the fleet is trucks and trucks are rarely purchased for explicitly moving humans and instead purchased for the moving of things. Rideshare already only has 40% of the market to convince to sell their car and perpetually rent on demand. What's the conversion rate of that 40% who could use the on demand service for moving humans? 50%? That's not a massive pile of customers. Built in car-seats are almost a mir…

> Rideshare already only has 40% of the market to convince to sell their car and perpetually rent on demand. What's the conversion rate of that 40% who could use the on demand service for moving humans? 50%? That's not a massive pile of customers.

Assuming that your estimate 50% of non-truck owners adopting it is correct, that's 20% of 253 million cars, which is 50 million. Seems massive to me.

> Built in car-seats are almost a mirage, they are wildly uncommon.

What makes you think that they won't become more common (especially among car service vehicles) if there is a strong demand for them from car subscription services? It's not like it's a complicated technology to add.

> The premise still remains, overwhelming majority of people will not want to abandon a personally owned vehicle for some on-demand car that arrives and some varying condition and layout that you have to load/unload every time with your things.

I'm not sure how you can be so sure of your prediction of future demand, especially when technology is changing so fast.

Regarding the particulars you mention, I already load/unload my private car with stuff, but 90% of the time, it's just me and my backpack.

Sure, you can't use a rented vehicle as paperwork storage, but why would one use a car for storing paperwork?

Chargers can be provided in the rental vehicle (just like Starbucks does).

> Try it for a week if you drive

I routinely take the train (with the kids and all their gear), and we have to naturally take everything we brought with us when we get off. If anything, the rental car scenario is more convenient than that.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#342

Post by MajorLOL »

bduerst wrote: post #338
jonathankoren wrote: post #329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Never lived in the rural area did you? No one likes buses, because buses are slow. They're slow because they make lots of stops that are irrelevant to your trip. As someone that regularly rode the school bus on a route that took an hour, compared to a 10 minute direct route. Fuck buses. Yes taxis, exist, but not many. The only people I knew that ever took them were people that lost their licenses. What you've actuall…

I grew up in a rural area, thank you. The cycle of poverty is strong in these rural locations because of the lack of public transportation and the cost to maintain a vehicle to hold a job. There are plenty of low-income people moving to common destinations (city center, plants, etc.) that would use an on-demand shared shuttle service if it had at-door pickup. Having worked a couple summers on a factory line, we would…

> cycle of poverty is strong in these rural locations because of the lack of public transportation

Because? Really? Because someone has to buy a car? I think your feelings are in the way of your cognitive ability.

>of low-income people moving to common destinations I'm sure there are plenty of low-income people moving to the suburbs/rural areas because they are being priced out of high density centers.

Lets not forget, 5% of the population uses the bus, that's including major urban centers like NYC. Nationally, nobody uses the bus, its a joke throw back to a time before cars. Fuck buses.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#343

Post by greggman »

Merad wrote: post #229
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

Sorry, I think this is just totally disconnected from the reality of the average American who lives outside of a major urban center. 1. Mom, dad, and kid all need to go to work/school at roughly the same time. If they all have a 15-20 minute commute (well below average for many areas) and the destinations for all three aren't in the same immediate vicinity, we're right back to the family needing 2-3 cars. 2. Eh, no.…

2 seems solvable with reputation? If you trash someone's car you're banned from the service. Also your charged for doing it. They can stick cameras in the car to verify same as taxis have cameras.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#344

Post by MajorLOL »

beau26 wrote: post #307
trillup wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only thing I'd like to add is that if the car is used this often the utilization rate of the car would significantly increase thus causing the car to go in for maintenance more often. Average mileage on a car is 13,000 per year and if a car is being used to drop the whole family off and then do rides on its own you are looking at 70,000-100,000 on a car per year. You are encouraged to get an oil change every 6,00…

Great point, however if these autonomous vehicles are electric (and I'm not saying they would be), they'd require much, much less maintenance than a fossil-fuel based autonomous fleet.

If you look online you will see that most batteries have a estimated mileage of 100k-150k before total replacement is needed. Most Lexus hybrids warrantees end at 100k.

If you are running a fleet of cars or ride sharing yours all day when you are at work, its going to get 100k miles put on it a year. Expect a new battery ($5k-$10k) annual replacement, in addition to the other 80% of the car that isn't hybrid like suspension, electrical system, interior and body.

The fuel savings often goes into battery maint/replacement, if you plan on keeping the car for extended mileage/time.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#345

Post by ghshephard »

MajorLOL wrote: post #342
bduerst wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I grew up in a rural area, thank you. The cycle of poverty is strong in these rural locations because of the lack of public transportation and the cost to maintain a vehicle to hold a job. There are plenty of low-income people moving to common destinations (city center, plants, etc.) that would use an on-demand shared shuttle service if it had at-door pickup. Having worked a couple summers on a factory line, we would…

> cycle of poverty is strong in these rural locations because of the lack of public transportation Because? Really? Because someone has to buy a car? I think your feelings are in the way of your cognitive ability. >of low-income people moving to common destinations I'm sure there are plenty of low-income people moving to the suburbs/rural areas because they are being priced out of high density centers. Lets not forge…

Re: Buses - if you get a chance, come over to Singapore. The buses come by every 3-5 minutes, have world-class air-conditioning, and on the half-dozen or so routes that I ride regularly, I don't think I've ever had to stand.

I rarely bother to even use their (world class) MRT I love the buses so much.

An advanced city is not a place where the poor move about in cars, rather it’s where even the rich use public transportation

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#346

Post by toomuchtodo »

hueving wrote: post #339
toomuchtodo wrote: post #315

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't buy a 747 to fly across the country do you? No, you buy a ticket from Southwest or another carrier. Kids will one day laugh at how we used to buy vehicles instead of rent them by the miles. "Auto loans?!?" The horror!

We already have taxis, Uber and rental cars. People still seem to be buying cars even at their high price. Why do you think that is?

Because there is no self-driving option. If there is, and the price of rides plummets (no driver = cheap, all electric = even cheaper), it no longer behooves you to tie up so much capital in a vehicle you own.

Think how much consumer excess would occur from 300 million people not having to buy a vehicle outright.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#347

Post by prawn »

saosebastiao wrote: post #266
mrgordon wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if the members of the family are going different places, each of them can likely share a car with other people heading in the same direction (e.g. to the same school or workplace, to the same city from the suburbs, etc.)

The same capability currently exists independently of driverless cars. What makes you think the utilization of this tactic will change with driverless cars?

Taxis are expensive and public transport isn't as convenient. A minibus taking me from within a block of my house to within a block of my work would get my business.

Labour costs are a significant part of any such operation, where I live at least.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#348

Post by bduerst »

MajorLOL wrote: post #342
bduerst wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I grew up in a rural area, thank you. The cycle of poverty is strong in these rural locations because of the lack of public transportation and the cost to maintain a vehicle to hold a job. There are plenty of low-income people moving to common destinations (city center, plants, etc.) that would use an on-demand shared shuttle service if it had at-door pickup. Having worked a couple summers on a factory line, we would…

> cycle of poverty is strong in these rural locations because of the lack of public transportation Because? Really? Because someone has to buy a car? I think your feelings are in the way of your cognitive ability. >of low-income people moving to common destinations I'm sure there are plenty of low-income people moving to the suburbs/rural areas because they are being priced out of high density centers. Lets not forge…

Maintain a car, not just buy. For a family below the poverty line & living paycheck to paycheck, this is costly.

55% of commuters in New York city use public transportation, 34% in SF, 26% in Chicago, 40% in D.C., etc. Don't be a dick about cognitive ability when you're quoting a 5% number that includes people who don't even have access to buses.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#349

Post by twistedpair »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

Classic Jevon's Paradox [1]. Use of the resource (cars) will become more efficient, and rather than use decreasing, it actually simulates increased usage.

Desktop processing apps were supposed to make office workers so productive they would only work a 4 hour work week. The reality? Workers are now so connected that they end up working 6-7 days a week.

If I can rent out my car when I'm not using it, my car is cheaper for me to operate, and more cars are available to drive people around, so they make more for hire trips when they otherwise would not have. More cars, more rides all around.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#350

Post by tilect1 »

Merad wrote: post #229
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

Sorry, I think this is just totally disconnected from the reality of the average American who lives outside of a major urban center. 1. Mom, dad, and kid all need to go to work/school at roughly the same time. If they all have a 15-20 minute commute (well below average for many areas) and the destinations for all three aren't in the same immediate vicinity, we're right back to the family needing 2-3 cars. 2. Eh, no.…

Of course the world or the way that you use cars would be different too...

#1, work/school from home, optimized schedules, etc

#2, you could get in/off the "car" in your own little capsule...

#3, those fleets of cars would park at the most efficient spots possible by using big data so the wait times could be reduced significantly (or the wait could be eliminated completely if the schedule is known ahead).

Post reply on HN