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The Economics of Drone Delivery

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11–20 of 48 posts

Re: The Economics of Drone Delivery

#11

I wonder how energy costs would factor into these economics. A couple of thoughts off the top of my head: * drones run on electricity - they are less energy efficient than ground vehicles, but this can be offset by cheapness of electricity - particularly in areas where battery recharge could be done by solar or wind. * The large banks of batteries required to make the drones economically efficient (I imagine it would…

An airplane is far more efficient than a helicopter (drone). Also, I can't imagine that a drone flying the last mile is going to be less energy efficient than driving that big heavy delivery truck.

Re: The Economics of Drone Delivery

#12
Strange that an article with this title that talks so much about Amazon's drone efforts doesn't examine Amazon's relationship with the delivery industry. Amazon desperately wants to economically remove the time lag between buying something from Amazon and buying from the nearest Wal-Mart. Drones have the potential of significantly improving delivery times and costs in the long run, but the delivery industry has little incentive to innovate in this area since they already command high margins on small package deliveries.

For Amazon, it's not necessarily about how well they can execute on their drone delivery program. I imagine that Amazon will actually make a go of turning drone fulfillment into a business, a la AWS, though the effort is still worthwhile for them even if that never happens. With this drone program, they are able to provide a large scale proof of concept, working through legal barriers that are relatively trivial for a company with Amazon's resources, but insurmountable for hypothetical drone logistics startups that might want to put pressure on UPS et al. But once the grunt work is done, the barriers to competing in the logistics industry through drone fleets will be substantially diminished.

This is the big upside for Amazon here: paving the way for increased competition in the delivery industry (whether it ends up primarily being driven by Amazon, incumbent companies, or startups) which will have the likely impact of improving it's unit costs while having the potential of eventually bringing it into parity with regards to the largest remaining advantage that Wal-Mart retains, same-day delivery.

The unit costs and limitations aren't particularly relevant to much at this point in time. Those will significantly improve as competition increases, as is typical in maturing technology industries.

Re: The Economics of Drone Delivery

#13
I've got to think that Amazon could rent out the roofs on commercial buildings throughout cities pretty cheaply. Doing so could completely moot the range issue as it would enable drone relays. I'm sure there will be regulatory barriers to doing that, but if they can get FAA approval for their delivery program as a whole, I'm sure they can get to a tipping point of municipalities that enable this sort of relay system. It might even be a Google Fiber sort of thing, where people actively lobby their municipalities to remove regulatory barriers so as to bring the city's technological capabilities in line with the state of the art.

Re: The Economics of Drone Delivery

#14

I wonder how energy costs would factor into these economics. A couple of thoughts off the top of my head: * drones run on electricity - they are less energy efficient than ground vehicles, but this can be offset by cheapness of electricity - particularly in areas where battery recharge could be done by solar or wind. * The large banks of batteries required to make the drones economically efficient (I imagine it would…

An airplane is far more efficient than a helicopter (drone). Also, I can't imagine that a drone flying the last mile is going to be less energy efficient than driving that big heavy delivery truck.

Per pound of cargo I'm sure the delivery truck is way more energy efficient if it's relatively full.

Re: The Economics of Drone Delivery

#15
What we have here is kind of lack of imagination. There are at least 2 parts of delivery that I see can be worked on with drones. One is last mile delivery, that honestly is challenging, unless you live in suburban or rural area.

However one, more interesting and probably lucrative part that should be easier to implement would be transport between major hub to nearby delivery point. Since these points can be built out and/or prepared, you can have deliveries coming non-stop, through FAA approved route, and then delivered from there. It doesn't even have to be dedicated Amazon employee, they can offer pick up or delivery by Uber or something like that.

For me this part can be very creative and I am surprised that Amazon doesn't see this as promising area of investment.

Re: The Economics of Drone Delivery

#16

> Instead, the real challenge is the regulatory environment. The FAA has banned all commercial uses of drones in the U.S. I always don't understand this reasoning. There are tons of other markets, many of which Amazon is active in. Being successful there without any problems would be the perfect argument to also allow it in the US.

Amazon has set up drone delivery research centers in the UK and Israel for just this reason.

Re: The Economics of Drone Delivery

#17

> Instead, the real challenge is the regulatory environment. The FAA has banned all commercial uses of drones in the U.S. I always don't understand this reasoning. There are tons of other markets, many of which Amazon is active in. Being successful there without any problems would be the perfect argument to also allow it in the US.

[deleted]

Re: The Economics of Drone Delivery

#18
Thinking a little further. In the future, we will have autonomous cars, and a user will probably not "own" the car, but will simply order it. And the user can specify if (s)he would like to share their ride. This car can easily have additional functions, for example package-delivery (a package is nothing more than a shared ride with a non-human passenger). Of course the logistics will be run from a central computer system. Perhaps this could be a more cost-effective solution to the whole package-delivery problem (?)

Re: The Economics of Drone Delivery

#19
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An airplane is far more efficient than a helicopter (drone). Also, I can't imagine that a drone flying the last mile is going to be less energy efficient than driving that big heavy delivery truck.

Per pound of cargo I'm sure the delivery truck is way more energy efficient if it's relatively full.

Per pound per mile, I'm sure it is. But most packages get driven way farther than they need to be, since one truck is out all day dropping off packages. Per pound per delivery, I'd bet the truck loses.
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