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New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

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Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

#11

Post by chimeracoder »

silphe wrote: post #3

The ranking puts German growth prediction to be almost zero while Japan's to be 2.8? I call this rubbish. Both countries were in the last years demographically pretty similar. Both countries are however diverging pretty swiftly. While productivity in Japan was falling it was increasing in Germany. Moreover the recent development showed that Germany was making gains in demographics with higher birth rate and net migra…

> Moreover the recent development showed that Germany was making gains in demographics with higher birth rate and net migrations... Germany's demographics is actually changing very quickly (and rather favorably).

First, higher birth rate and net migrations are usually a (short-term) drag on GDP, not a boost.

Secondly, you can't look at Germany outside the context of being a member of the EU and Eurozone (and currently a very important creditor in the Eurozone). That has a huge impact on Germany's economy.

Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

#12

Post by tosseraccount »

silphe wrote: post #3

The ranking puts German growth prediction to be almost zero while Japan's to be 2.8? I call this rubbish. Both countries were in the last years demographically pretty similar. Both countries are however diverging pretty swiftly. While productivity in Japan was falling it was increasing in Germany. Moreover the recent development showed that Germany was making gains in demographics with higher birth rate and net migra…

Fact check: Japan productivity falling?

2009: $31

2013: $36.24

2014: $36.45

source:http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=PDB_LV

(GDP per head of population in USD ppp adjusted)

Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

#13

Post by fauigerzigerk »

vox_mollis wrote: post #9

Are long-term GDP growth predictions ever anything other than completely wrong guesses? Why do we take any of this seriously? Even the Federal Reserve and the BEA estimates going out a single year are usually little better than noise.

Making a prediction for one year may be more difficult than making a prediction over 10 years. Over 10 years, structural factors will dominate, but in any single year something like inventory fluctuations or commodity price jumps/slumps can make a prediction look very incorrect.

Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

#14

Post by littletimmy »

bhouston wrote: post #6

According to the chart, it will also be the decade of Africa -- which is sort of a nice change. :)

It is sort of horrible, once you think about it. Africa is the last continent on earth to have abundant wildlife. Development in Africa would mean we lose a large portion of wildlife on earth, forever.

Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

#15

Post by wavefunction »

roymurdock wrote: post #5

Helpful to keep in mind that India recently changed the way it calculates GDP by updating its base year and moving from a cost-of-input calculation to an expenditure calculation. This will give it a nominal boost as many currently non-market activities (cooking, cleaning, child rearing) enter the realm of the market as paid-for services, and are thus counted in the GDP calculation. More on that in this previous artic…

I was just in India in September and there are massive hydro-electric programs going on. Those have their own problems of environmental degradation and damage but I think India is keenly aware of seeing what has happened to China and is trying to avoid some of the same mistakes where possible.

Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

#16

Post by bhouston »

littletimmy wrote: post #14
bhouston wrote: post #6

According to the chart, it will also be the decade of Africa -- which is sort of a nice change. :)

It is sort of horrible, once you think about it. Africa is the last continent on earth to have abundant wildlife. Development in Africa would mean we lose a large portion of wildlife on earth, forever.

You value African wildlife more than improved living standards for the 100s of millions of Africans? I think we should preserve the wildlife as best as we can but I think we should also value increased standards of living for 100s of millions of people....

Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

#17

Post by fauigerzigerk »

littletimmy wrote: post #14
bhouston wrote: post #6

According to the chart, it will also be the decade of Africa -- which is sort of a nice change. :)

It is sort of horrible, once you think about it. Africa is the last continent on earth to have abundant wildlife. Development in Africa would mean we lose a large portion of wildlife on earth, forever.

Do you really think that dirt poor countries are better at preserving wildlife than countries where people do not starve to death, die from diarrhea or burn every bush within reach for firewood?

I think it depends a lot on what any growth is based on. If I understand this report correctly, their definition of economic complexity ranks countries with varied exports a lot higher than single minded commodities exporters. A Kenyan drug or machinery maker is unlikely to hurt wildlife much.

Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

#18

Post by littletimmy »

bhouston wrote: post #16
littletimmy wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is sort of horrible, once you think about it. Africa is the last continent on earth to have abundant wildlife. Development in Africa would mean we lose a large portion of wildlife on earth, forever.

You value African wildlife more than improved living standards for the 100s of millions of Africans? I think we should preserve the wildlife as best as we can but I think we should also value increased standards of living for 100s of millions of people....

I understand your point. But don't you think the wildlife are equally important?

There are 7 BILLION people on earth... but there are just 5000 rhinos, for example. That's 1.5 MILLION people to a rhino. This is one of the most magnificent species to have ever walked earth - why shouldn't we prioritize preserving it over human comfort? Why do you value increase in living standards over a sentient species that all things considered, is a form of life just like humans?

Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

#19

Post by jobu »

chimeracoder wrote: post #11
silphe wrote: post #3

The ranking puts German growth prediction to be almost zero while Japan's to be 2.8? I call this rubbish. Both countries were in the last years demographically pretty similar. Both countries are however diverging pretty swiftly. While productivity in Japan was falling it was increasing in Germany. Moreover the recent development showed that Germany was making gains in demographics with higher birth rate and net migra…

> Moreover the recent development showed that Germany was making gains in demographics with higher birth rate and net migrations... Germany's demographics is actually changing very quickly (and rather favorably). First, higher birth rate and net migrations are usually a (short-term) drag on GDP, not a boost. Secondly, you can't look at Germany outside the context of being a member of the EU and Eurozone (and currentl…

> First, higher birth rate and net migrations are usually a (short-term) drag on GDP, not a boost.

This was my thought as well. Germany has publicly declared that they will take 800k refugees (plus there are likely to be several hundred thousand undocumented immigrants). That will be a huge drag on their economy for a few years, but the long term result is projected to be very positive for their economy.

Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India

#20

Post by littletimmy »

fauigerzigerk wrote: post #17
littletimmy wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is sort of horrible, once you think about it. Africa is the last continent on earth to have abundant wildlife. Development in Africa would mean we lose a large portion of wildlife on earth, forever.

Do you really think that dirt poor countries are better at preserving wildlife than countries where people do not starve to death, die from diarrhea or burn every bush within reach for firewood? I think it depends a lot on what any growth is based on. If I understand this report correctly, their definition of economic complexity ranks countries with varied exports a lot higher than single minded commodities exporters…

Well, I look at it from the perspective of history. Wherever modern human development has taken hold, we've had a degradation of animal life. It happened in Europe, it happened in China, it happened in America after it was colonized.

A lot of African people live in harmony with their environment. It is external development (investment from China, globalization etc.) that is hurting wildlife in their areas. Why should we accelerate the process of their development? There's absolutely no indication that an industrialized people are happier than a people living as hunter-gatherers, for example. Just let Africa be.

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