New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
atlas.cid.harvard.edu
New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
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Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
#2Economic Complexity is a bit weird as it only considers actual goods. For instance in the US, around 80% of the US works in a service providing job, and therefore are not considered as adding to economic complexity (that's most of us).
I don't really know how this ever gets wound back in, and would love if someone had an article on how it does. Just something to keep in mind though.
Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
#3The ranking puts German growth prediction to be almost zero while Japan's to be 2.8? I call this rubbish. Both countries were in the last years demographically pretty similar.
Both countries are however diverging pretty swiftly. While productivity in Japan was falling it was increasing in Germany. Moreover the recent development showed that Germany was making gains in demographics with higher birth rate and net migrations. Japan on the other hand was falling in recession several times in the last 5 years alone. Even without extrapolating the current trend, it is obvious that Japan would not do much with regard to its demographics while Germany's demographics is actually changing very quickly (and rather favorably).
Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
#4[deleted]
Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
#5Helpful to keep in mind that India recently changed the way it calculates GDP by updating its base year and moving from a cost-of-input calculation to an expenditure calculation. This will give it a nominal boost as many currently non-market activities (cooking, cleaning, child rearing) enter the realm of the market as paid-for services, and are thus counted in the GDP calculation.
More on that in this previous article and discussion:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10649925
One thing that high growth inevitably brings is the negative externality of pollution, as we've observed in China. GDP figures still do not account for this hugely important factor that degrades the quality of living of those in the affected area, as well as the spillover to the oceans and the atmosphere from improper disposal of waste (burning, dumping). It will be interesting to see how bad the pollution gets as manufacturing continues to ramp up, according to the higher "economic complexity" (read: diversified basket of exports) per Harvard's analysis.
Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
#6According to the chart, it will also be the decade of Africa -- which is sort of a nice change. :)
Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
#7The ranking puts German growth prediction to be almost zero while Japan's to be 2.8? I call this rubbish. Both countries were in the last years demographically pretty similar. Both countries are however diverging pretty swiftly. While productivity in Japan was falling it was increasing in Germany. Moreover the recent development showed that Germany was making gains in demographics with higher birth rate and net migra…
Is there some reason that we should believe that Harvard put little thought into their predictions? An hour doesn't go by on the Internet where someone isn't calling something rubbish based on their limited understanding of a given subject.
Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
#8Helpful to keep in mind that India recently changed the way it calculates GDP by updating its base year and moving from a cost-of-input calculation to an expenditure calculation. This will give it a nominal boost as many currently non-market activities (cooking, cleaning, child rearing) enter the realm of the market as paid-for services, and are thus counted in the GDP calculation. More on that in this previous artic…
That's interesting; shouldn't cost-of-input, income, expenditure measures all equal the same amount?
Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
#9Are long-term GDP growth predictions ever anything other than completely wrong guesses?
Why do we take any of this seriously? Even the Federal Reserve and the BEA estimates going out a single year are usually little better than noise.
Re: New Global Growth Projections Predict the Decade of India
#10Helpful to keep in mind that India recently changed the way it calculates GDP by updating its base year and moving from a cost-of-input calculation to an expenditure calculation. This will give it a nominal boost as many currently non-market activities (cooking, cleaning, child rearing) enter the realm of the market as paid-for services, and are thus counted in the GDP calculation. More on that in this previous artic…
That's interesting; shouldn't cost-of-input, income, expenditure measures all equal the same amount?
> That's interesting; shouldn't cost-of-input, income, expenditure measures all equal the same amount?
In theory, yes, they're all the same.
In practice, measuring each of the three has its own challenges, which means the raw numbers will differ.
It's just like physics - you can use the work-energy theorem or Newton's laws and arrive at the same result in theory, but depending on the experiment you're running, one may be easier to measure accurately than the other, and you'll end up with slightly different numbers on paper.