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Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

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241–250 of 361 posts

Re: Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

#241
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sort of.... you want more stuff if you have more money, but if you have little money, at one point, your propensity to save increases to avoid poverty, whereas below some point I imagine you spend everything you have (not much) as fast as it comes in.

Demand is not want. Demand is standing at a cash register with cash, asking for a product. Although demand in the economic sense sort-of-sounds like want - certainly I'd like a new Lamborghini - I have zero effect on the demand for lamborghinis. The level of spending (poverty vs wealth) is mostly irrelevant because that's a value line someone draws on a graph somewhere. Poverty in the Midwest is not the same as pover…

Err... I guess I used the word want loosely. I meant demand.

Savings are just postponed consumption, but if the consumptions of multiple people never align (you could save until you're dead) the aggregate demand will never rise to a high level.

Re: Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

#242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't Jobs quit college because it was too expensive?

> the affordability and draw of public UC Berkley where Jobs and Wozniaki met. Didn't Jobs quit college because it was too expensive?

No, most colleges were extraordinarily inexpensive at the time Jobs was going. You could pay for it entirely with a part-time job.

Re: Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

#243
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We need the Federal government to stimulate aggregate demand at the consumer level. How? Investing tax dollars in a smarter manner Everyone - and I do mean everyone - would be better off if the fed government (and state and local) invested those tax dollars smarter by leaving the majority of them in the hands of those that earnt them . "There are four ways in which you can spend money. You can spend your own money o…

In terms of stimulating aggregate demand, transfers to people who will spend the money are more effective than transfers to people who spend less (i.e. save more). In practice that means food stamps, unemployment benefits, etc. are more effective than tax cuts directed at high earners.

This seems like a common point in this thread with which I respectfully disagree.

While I'm sure we all support the notion that there is social good in reducing income inequality in the U.S. and improving quality of life for all, consumers in lower tax brackets will tend to spend additional income on staples, marginal quality-of-life improvements and servicing past debt. While this spending (increased aggregate demand) can't be bad, it doesn't necessarily distribute the capital _efficiently_.

Meanwhile, as you put, the high earners who "save" (read: invest) their excess income are precisely those who stimulate the economy effectively, as they are typically more able to efficiently allocate investments. I make this broad-brush assumption based on personal experience and some research I read years ago I don't have the time to look up right now. But basically think about this: if you had $100 to invest, would you rather ask a hobo on the street or Bill Gates (let alone Ray Dalio)? This "sophistication factor" is relevant, I believe. Add in the fact that lower-income consumers are almost certain to spend the excess capital in a predictable but not necessarily efficient way, and it's fairly easy to make the argument that aggregate demand would best be created by a.) efficiently distributing capital to b.) create new and profitable enterprises that c.) create demand both domestically and internationally, and d.) purchases are made (demand is created) for those innovative new products/services using e.) the money earned by workers paid by the companies that just created them. (f. what a mouthful.)

Now we've not only increased demand but added to the whole pie via foreign trade. And gets us back to the point mentioned above that the quality of what we create directly impacts demand for it -- and you can't really get around that fact either.

Re: Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

#244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Be careful what you wish for: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/03/how... . tl;dr if you raise the minimum wage imperceptibly, poverty reduction is affected imperceptibly and prices are affected imperceptibly. In general if something will have a negative effect on corporate profits (minimum wage hikes have an outsized effect on corporate profits) you will be able to find a legion of economists wh…

The reason many economists are unsure or against the minimum wage is not because they're some agents of bourgeoisie capitalists, but because arguments in favor of it tend to be moral, not economic. For instance, here's a case for the minimum wage presented by an (otherwise very knowledgeable, I'll grant) Post-Keynesian economist: http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-e... It's pretty weak. The fi…

I'm not at all concerned about economists who are "for" or "against" the minimum wage. They can hold whatever opinions they want if they don't lie.

It's the economists who poorly design studies with the intent of demonstrating that it either causes prices to rise uncontrollably (which it doesn't), causes unemployment to rise (which it also doesn't) and who pointedly never, ever, ever look at the effect it has on profits (it is savage towards profits, which is why the marketing budgets for stuff like this gets approved: http://kron4.com/2014/07/18/new-sf-billboard-says-workers-wi...).

They all know where the money is in their profession: it's at ideological corporate think tanks. If you can tread the fine line between not lying and saying things which they really like you've got a good career ahead of you.

As it happens, 'moral' arguments that say that you shouldn't raise the minimum wage work better when you can claim that it will hurt the people it is designed to help. Those arguments fall flat on their face when it becomes apparent that raising the minimum wage just transfers profits into workers' pockets directly.

Re: Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

#245

Fed raising interest rates 0.25% and setting a goal of "normal" 2% by 2018 means little to nothing. Market already priced the miniscule rate hike in as the move was widely expected, and move did nothing to assure markets that the Fed is in control, or set credible, measurable goals for future hikes. Fed can continue to push on the supply side of money at the bank/institutional level all it wants. We need the Federal…

So... is this a good time to short bonds?

there is no such thing as a good time to short bonds :)

Re: Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

#246
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fed interest rate is the foundation for pretty much all loans, cars, mortgages, whatever. Low interest rates are good for borrowers. I want a car, or a house, or a power plant, or a jet, or whatever. I want to spend some money that i don't actually have. This changes the economy because more money is moving around. High interest rates are good for lenders. I've got this pile of cash that isn't doing anything. The…

One way this might affect ordinary people is the choice between investing or paying down a mortgage. The day you get the mortgage, it probably feels like a good risk-adjusted return to pay it down. "Risk-free 5% return!"[0] But if you have a low 30-year rate and interest rates rise enough, there might be low-risk investments that pay better than extra mortgage payments. This is one doubt I've always had about Dave Ra…

I think if you don't make a whole lot of money (like retirement is going to be kinda scary) and you're living in the house you're planning on dying in, paying it down makes sense. it's a very easy way to hold on to some wealth and get to the point that you don't have house payments anymore. maxing out 401k is better, you'll end up with more money, but there's some real security in outright ownership.

Paying down the mortgage with the rates we have now, aside from personal security, don't make much sense to me. If you're in an ARM and the payment keeps creeping up, then yeah, it's a better move to pay down early.

Re: Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

#247
post #164
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually. Today, of the many houses sold, there's going to be .25% more people who can't get the loan they want. They're going to move down market, and buy a slightly cheaper house. The more expensive houses might lower their price, or take it off market or whatever. It's like a distributed system. There's a bunch of complicated moving parts that all react to each other. There aren't that many knobs and levers to p…

> there's going to be .25% more people who can't get the loan they want. No. This is wrong. There isn't a 1-1 correlation between interest rates and the % of people who get the loan they want. That's nuts.

It's a mental model to highlight a point. if there were infinite mortgage applicants, and the fed change was the only change in the whole universe, there would be a 1-1 correlation. Lots of other stuff is going on, which pushes back.

Re: Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason many economists are unsure or against the minimum wage is not because they're some agents of bourgeoisie capitalists, but because arguments in favor of it tend to be moral, not economic. For instance, here's a case for the minimum wage presented by an (otherwise very knowledgeable, I'll grant) Post-Keynesian economist: http://socialdemocracy21stcentury.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-e... It's pretty weak. The fi…

I'm not at all concerned about economists who are "for" or "against" the minimum wage. They can hold whatever opinions they want if they don't lie. It's the economists who poorly design studies with the intent of demonstrating that it either causes prices to rise uncontrollably (which it doesn't), causes unemployment to rise (which it also doesn't) and who pointedly never, ever, ever look at the effect it has on prof…

Economists are agents of bourgeoisie capitalism, then. Alright, I'll end here.

Re: Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

#249
post #236
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumer demand is meaningless. Trying to push it is like trying to push a string. Demand is an artefact of production. Unless your economy is producing, you won't increase quality of life and wealth for all citizens. This point is obvious, but gets completely lost in all the frenzy around 'stimulating demand'. To buy something, first you have to produce something worthy of exchange. Everyone has to start from this p…

> To buy something, first you have to produce something worthy of exchange. Everyone has to start from this point. But so many people from the Marxist-leaning schools just don't and refuse to, because at its core this belief destroys pretty much every argument they make about moving from a market-based system to a collective one.

Sure. The Marxism school of thought is one of fantasies, of free lunches from artful arrangement of resources. The problem is that this persistent belief stretches from hard core far-left socialist/communists right up to the centre right of political thought (though I despise the left/right denomination, I use it here to illustrate fashionable thinking).

Eventually, beliefs will have to change - anything that can't go on, won't - but I don't expect it in my lifetime. Human nature is unchanging and economics is simply the study of human choice when it comes to limited resources. At some point understanding must come back to this simple point - you've got to produce something to trade for something - but magical thinking and hoping has a way of persisting for a long, long time.

Edit: you'll see that most of my comments in this topic are being systematically down voted. This is because it is contrary thinking to what gets fed in higher education in the past few decades. I know, because I consumed the same content, and had to continue my own further education to realise why the concepts never sat right with what I observed going on. And that results in a lot of a-ha moments when you start reading pre-Marxian and pre-Keynesian thought. I hold no ill-will or malice to the down voters, perhaps one day they'll come to realise the dry, barren road current macro thinking finds itself.

Re: Fed Ends Zero-Rate Era

#250
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Existing home equity lines of credit, credit cards and other consumer loans with variable interest rates tied to the prime rate will be impacted if the prime rate rises, the person said. > "We won't automatically change deposit rates because they aren't tied directly to the prime," a JPMorgan Chase spokesperson told CNBC. "We'll continue to monitor the market to make sure we stay competitive." Heads I win, tails yo…

Does it matter though? 21st Century, everyone with savings can open a Vanguard mutual fund account with the risk/reward profile of their choosing, that's almost as convenient wrt withdrawals.

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