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The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

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Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#131

Post by pc86 »

avn2109 wrote: post #61
shkkmo wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want to live in a world where law enforcement isn't so pre-occupied dealing with traffic violations.

That is equivalent to wanting to live in a world wherein local government is adequately funded through ordinary taxation, such that it doesn't resort to highway shakedowns of the people for its operating revenue.

I'm pretty sure "highway shakedowns" as you put it only happen when you are grossly disobeyed clearly posted speed limits, rolling through stop signs, or trying to squeeze through that yellow light so you can get to work two minutes sooner.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#132

Post by MrBuddyCasino »

isaaaaah wrote: post #97

In the city of Nuremburg, Germany in the year 2006 Siemens started to introduce automated trains. Until this day, they have to be operated under supervision. So how exactly do all these tech companies want to get the fact out of the way, that there is an actual AI needed before they can dive into autonomous cars driving the streets? The wet dream of big biz for sure, if only it could meet up with reality. Sorry for n…

Thats just Siemens being Siemens. Driverless trains are in no way trivial, but it has been done successfully.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#133

Post by pc86 »

bjelkeman-again wrote: post #106
avn2109 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is equivalent to wanting to live in a world wherein local government is adequately funded through ordinary taxation, such that it doesn't resort to highway shakedowns of the people for its operating revenue.

I actually live in such a country. Most (all?) of northern Europe is well functioning that way. It can work.

What's your effective tax rate?

I'm being somewhat facetious, but there are several ways to fund local governments, including but not limited to:

A. Tax the people directly based on $ASSET (usually income, or property, or a combination of the two). B. Lower direct taxes as well as state and federal grants, and fines from enforcement.

As someone who doesn't necessarily mind sending a few dimes on the dollar to the government, and doesn't speed often enough or at such egregious speeds that I'm subject to hyperbolic "highway shakedowns," I kind of prefer B to A because it results in a lower effective tax rate for me.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#134

Post by pc86 »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #107
TheEzEzz wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If those high targets are the only things remaining then I'd say the race is pretty close to finishing. I'd be more pessimistic if features on the todo list still included 'identifying stop signs', 'recognizing people', 'not killing people', and 'driving more smoothly than a teenager'.

What's more, people are forgetting that normal traffic does not go through wilderness, and roads are not just slabs of concrete in a line. We draw markings on the road. We put signs next to them. It stands to reason that as self-driving cars will be slowly deployed (I don't see them rolling out simultaneously in sunny California and in snowy Switzerland), we'll be updating road infrastructure with signs and other obj…

I'm sorry but I think this is a grossly over-optimistic view. If vehicle automation requires any upgrades to road infrastructure I see it being a total non-starter.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#135

Post by pc86 »

throwaway7767 wrote: post #119
TeMPOraL wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe it'll happen quicker than you think. Even if we can't move beyond having to create and maintain detailed road maps, once the concept has been proven to work, you can expect many companies simultaneously jumping to map their local regions. That's one thing capitalism is really good at - distributed, simultaneous deployment of solutions that have money-making potential.

I hope you're right. I could see that happening in warmer climates. But what about when landmarks and points of reference are covered in snow? GPS is not accurate enough to be used as a sole reference, you need a visual/LIDAR reference to back it up. The system will have to work in 100% of circumstances before laws will be changed to allow for driverless cars. I could see that happening in 20 years, but I really doub…

Construction alone is going to make it extremely difficult, unless there is a system such that the cars know where construction is taking place and actively avoid those routes, but that is not always known.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#136

Post by vonmoltke »

wibr wrote: post #77
jobu wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's always able to track the car in front of me perfectly I've always wondered how this would really work. What happens when the car ahead changes lanes or exits the freeway? Have you run into any issues with weather (rain, snow) interfering with the sensor?

That depends on the sensors which are used. Most current ACC systems use radar, which should not be affected by weather but has other problems like high cost, narrow field of view and you only get speed and distance as data points which are not always easy to interpret correctly. Ideally it's combined with a camera to get more information about the environment like land markings, so that you know if the car in front…

A more sophisticated (but expensive) radar sensor could do the job without the camera. A sensor capable of Doppler processing, sweeping, and tied to some sort of platform telemetry (GPS, INS, etc.) could maintain a large and fairly comprehensive situational picture. Add moving target indication to the signal processing and it could form tracks on all other vehicles on the road, which would provide the motion vectors for them without the need for another sensor. You could even use track behavior to detect anomalies in the road, assuming you have multiple tracks.

I could go on all day about this (having actually worked on MTI radar for several years), but I have actual work to do. :P

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#137

Post by beardicus »

pc86 wrote: post #121
DanBC wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI Cars are going to have a lot of cameras and always-on recording. Aggressive driving would risk being reported to law enforcement. > Pedestrians and cyclists may also learn that they can freely cut off an AI car at anytime they please. Why wait for a walk signal? Why walk all the way to the intersection? Just saunter across anywhere you like, so long as you cross in front of an AI car. That's probably a good thing.…

Jaywalking is a crime for a reason, because it's potentially deadly to the pedestrian. It seems to be much worse in small/mid-size cities (probably because of less overall traffic). I've had people literally jog into my lane then walk the remaining 4 feet to the sidewalk while I slow from 35 to 10 to avoid hitting them. I think if half the cars on the road are autonomous and will just stop no matter what you will not…

Jaywalking is a crime because automakers wanted it to be. It had more to do with increasing the speed and utility of cars than it did with pedestrian safety (nobody gives a shit, and nobody gets in trouble for killing pedestrians with automobiles) [1].

I hope autonomous cars can help re-enable the peaceful co-existence of multiple modes of transportation on our streets.

[1]: http://www.citylab.com/commute/2012/04/invention-jaywalking/...

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#138

Post by pc86 »

jmspring wrote: post #57

I don't have a commute. I just recently downsized from a VW gross polluter TDI (jetta sportwagen) to a Toyota off-road tacoma. 1/2 the gas milage. This will probably be the last vehicle I personally buy for years. It will be mostly road trips and off road camping. The wife plans on a Tesla Model 3 as her car. For my uses, even my 2016 Tacoma TRD OR screams over technical for a lot of back country camping / jeep trail…

> gross polluter TDI

> Toyota Tacoma for road trips

The cognitive dissonance is impressive.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#139

Post by gutnor »

DanBC wrote: post #129
GVIrish wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Pedestrians and cyclists may also learn that they can freely cut off an AI car at anytime they please. Why wait for a walk signal? Why walk all the way to the intersection? Just saunter across anywhere you like, so long as you cross in front of an AI car. >That's probably a good thing. Car drivers need to get out of the mindset that they own the roads. The problem with that is the time period before AI cars are ub…

Yes, car drivers need to learn to drive, and that means they need to learn to slow the fuck down when there are pedestrians around. When a car driver says "careless pedestrian" I hear "inattentive, selfish, driver". This is probably a cultural thing, because jaywalking isn't a crime here.

I don't know, jaywalking is not a crime in my country and yet most people my generation have been educated to pay respect to the law of physic.

Sure the inattentive driver may be an asshole that should not be allowed to drive a car - but he is the one in the 1+ ton tin can and if does not see you, you lose.

Younger generation are crazy to me, I see them crossing the street without even looking up, anywhere, at any time without any consideration for their visibility. I'm one of those inattentive, selfish, driver and it scares me to death.

So what about self-preservation on the road until we get those fancy autonomous cars ? Car can and should drive more slowly, but pedestrians also need to look where they are going. If the street were an industry setting, health and safety regulation would probably prevent you to move if any vehicle was moving at all, even if they were all autonomous. And you would have to go through gory induction video of what happens if you don't respect that rule and either the machine fails or you underestimated inertia.

[1] Sometimes I'm looking at a parking spot, sometimes I'm looking at that cyclist that is tailgating me and will crash in my car if I'm taking slowing down too fast. Sometimes the visibility is not great, sometimes my 2 year old is making a mess. Autonomous car have sensors everywhere but a human driven car only has 1, a very powerful one, but just one.

Re: The High-Stakes Race to Rid the World of Human Drivers

#140

Post by rconti »

mikeash wrote: post #20
chiph wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have mixed opinions on the new assistive technology. Blind-spot monitoring is pretty good - it's not intrusive (just a yellow light in your outside mirror) and can save you from an embarrassing accident. Same with the ultrasonic/radar parking assist. I rarely parallel park (there just aren't that many of that style parking spots any more) so the system really helps me judge where the back corners of the car are. I…

I personally found that lane departure warning made me a much more precise driver. I like that a lot. It goes off in error sometimes too, but it's rare now that I've been trained to properly stay within the lines.

I was actually wondering if assistive techs like this might make people more likely to signal, as there's a slightly negative feedback to departing one's lane without doing so first.
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