What can a technologist do about climate change? • Hacker News Board

Re: What can a technologist do about climate change?

#131

Post by DennisP » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 8:32 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #30

pc86 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm struggling to figure out why nuclear is lumped in with fossil fuels.

Nuclear is low-carbon, but it's not renewable. Earth has a set amount of uranium that is destroyed when creating energy. Currently we have about 200 years of uranium available for economical extraction. But if we tried to replace all coal with nuclear, we would be out within a few decades. Then we'd need to move to other non-renewable materials (thorium?) or start mining astroids. http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar…

From your first link:

> Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium—a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies.

Unless we build a very large number of conventional reactors over the next couple decades, which isn't likely, we've got time to develop more advanced reactors.

Re: What can a technologist do about climate change?

#132

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 8:32 PM UTC

[deleted]

Re: What can a technologist do about climate change?

#133

Post by chaosphere2112 » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 8:34 PM UTC

I work on climate software at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory[1]. My team works with big data and visualization. We support ACME[2] (the Department of Energy's climate modeling program), PCMDI[3] (a team that's been evaluating climate models since 1989), and a number of other projects and groups.

If you are interested in what you can do for the climate, we need all the help we can get. Our code may not be the epitome of hygiene (think decades-old python with docstrings that haven't been touched in that long), but in the time I've been here we've gotten loads better. All of our code lives on github ([4] and [5]), we have way more funding than we know what to do with, and we have more work to do than people to do it.

If you're interested, shoot me an email (in my profile). I'm still hunting for the job application link.

EDIT: Job link found! http://careers-ext.llnl.gov/jobs/4494026-software-developers... Don't worry about all of the skills listed, it's a generic one. Feel free to shoot me an email if you have any questions.

[1]: https://www.llnl.gov [2]: http://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/projects/accelerat... [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Program_for_Climate_Model_Diag... [4]: https://github.com/ESGF [5]: https://github.com/UV-CDAT

Re: What can a technologist do about climate change?

#134

Post by ommunist » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 8:34 PM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #72

ommunist wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since when number of publications became the measure of truth? There were numerous publications before Leonardo since Aristotle that flies have 8 legs. They all still have 6 though. Humans are nothing in impact comparing to a single volcano.

Ahem, > The volcano released approximately 0.15 million tonnes of CO2 each day, but the massive reduction of air travel occurring over European skies caused by the ash cloud, saved an estimated 1.3 to 2.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere by 19 April 2010. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_the_April_2010_Eyja... > The grounding of European flights avoided about 3.44×10^8 kg of CO2 e…

One small volcano vs all European flights.

Now look at this:

Notice how all but one of the individual annual volcanogenic carbon outputs, estimated above, dwarf the global subaerial volcanogenic carbon outputs estimated by both Gerlach (1991) & Kerrick (2001)

Re: What can a technologist do about climate change?

#135

Post by notahacker » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 8:36 PM UTC

cpr wrote: post #26

epistasis wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, that slide presentation is a masterpiece in how to deceive engineers. He's not looking at it "as an engineer," he's looking at everything with preconceived notions and trying to cherry pick his way to his conclusion.

That's fairly ad hominem. Can you give some examples?

The most obvious weakness in it is that he criticises numerous regression models (and presumably knows how to build one himself) and even sneers at the concept, but his own arguments are all based on simplistic "the line looks different during the sunspot activity period" generalisations. Which isn't going to impress people on here that work with messy datasets on a daily basis, and know that once you've acknowledged multiple uncorrelated factors impact the variables, the shape of the basic scatter plot doesn't tell you very much.

The scaling of the "to inform, not to scare" graph to show "normal CO2 limits in a confined space" is particularly silly since afaik absolutely no climate scientist has ever speculated we're all about to suffocate from the additional carbon dioxide released.

I'm not entirely unsympathetic to his argument that climate forecasts are an inexact science, humanity is perfectly capable of living at higher average global temperatures and engineers might be better focusing attention on structural adjustment problems (like flooding and regional disruption to crops). But this is a polemic rather than a more compelling approach to reading the figures. And the idea mooted at the end that airline certification levels of certainty should be applied to all public policy decisions is just... amusing.

Re: What can a technologist do about climate change?

#136

Post by ommunist » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 8:40 PM UTC

XorNot wrote: post #127

ommunist wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually did some research, and delivered a course in Environmental Legislation for three semesters at Moscow Industrial University. There are huge margins in estimations of both consumption and production of CO2. We lack actual data from one side and we have too many stakeholders with vested interest in "raising awareness about climate change", and selling more "cleaner" cars to take this subject seriously. Ever a…

But you'll note, again, that the data I referred to isn't about what cars do or do not emit specifically. It is about whether volcanic eruptions track with significant increases in CO2 in the atmosphere. Which they do not. Where as your sources are still absent.

Look, data for individual eruptions:

Year Volcano Mean Sulphurous Output Source Est. Carbon output during year(s) of eruption 1883AD Krakatoa 38 MtSO2pa Shinohara (2008) 26.14 MtCpa 1815AD Tambora 70 MtSO2pa Shinohara (2008) 48.16 MtCpa 1783AD Laki 130 MtSO2pa Shinohara (2008) 89.44 MtCpa 1600AD Huaynaputina 48 MtSO2pa Shinohara (2008) 33.02 MtCpa 1452AD Kuwae 150 MtH2SO4pa Witter & Self (2007) 67.40 MtCpa 934AD Eldja 110 MtSO2 Shinohara (2008) 75.68 MtCpa 1645BC Minoa 125 MtSO2pa Shinohara (2008) 86.00 MtCpa circa 71,000BP Toba 1100 MtH2SO4pa Zielenski et al. (1996) 494.24 MtCpa

Notice how all but one of the individual annual volcanogenic carbon outputs, estimated above, dwarf the global subaerial volcanogenic carbon outputs estimated by both Gerlach (1991) & Kerrick (2001).

Gerlach is Guesswork ;-)

Re: What can a technologist do about climate change?

#137

Post by haxel » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 8:42 PM UTC

rmchugh wrote: post #130

haxel wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say global economy and then you say far beyond the reach of individual consumers. Yet the global economy is by definition composed of the demands of individual consumers. You also say that top-down hasn't been working very well and so we may be running out of time. Isn't that a strong signal that we should look at a different approach? As technologists, we can plainly see the power of our mobile computers and the…

I don't think advertisement works that well. While you may convince a small minority of consumers to consume in a climate conscious way, I sincerely doubt that it would appeal to the vast majority. For example, you would need to persuade people not to eat meat, not to fly, not to purchase fresh food that has been transported by air, not to drive cars driven by fossil fuels etc etc. These are all things that make peop…

Ah, I meant advertising in the sense that we're seeing tons of advertising for cheap meat, air travel, factory food, new gas cars, and whatnot. A good question to ask might be that if corporations _didn't_ advertise so much, how much less frequently would we buy those types of products/services? Would we still need them? I think the advertisers know what would happen, and so they have to keep it up.

Now, if we decided to throw a few environmental ads into the current mix, I think you're right that they'd have little effect. But we can't forget how much advertising we see for stuff that's harmful in many ways, regardless of how temporarily satisfied we are with our purchases. Because so much of what we buy has serious negative (but hidden) consequences, advertising is causing us to act against our (non-immediate) self-interests.

Re: What can a technologist do about climate change?

#138

Post by jbrande » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 8:42 PM UTC

oberstein wrote: post #118

jbrande wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Environmental 'solutions' have the unfortunate habit of being severely under researched and causing further, if not greater, damage. Besides, that is a solution for the symptom, not the disease.

When you have treated all symptoms and stopped them from arising again, the disease is effectively cured even if you still carry it. The final solution will be complete mastery over our planetary weather, it's better we do that sooner than later. Tsunami and earthquake deaths total far above terrorism deaths, we only need funding to fight terrorism to the extent that they get in the way of building to that final solu…

You are vastly, VASTLY, overestimating our understanding of the biology, chemistry, geology, & incredibly complex web of interdependencies and relationships that make up the environment we live in.

Much simpler to solve at the source (whatever actions are directly causing the damage) than the falacy of thinking we understand and have accounted for every possible permutation of events that will cascade after dumping material A into resource B. We don't even know what we don't know but this is the end game and mistakes here don't get do overs.

The next step in your logic is our 'traditional' response at this point: drop in another chemical/process that is supposed to 'fix' whatever mess up we did before. Haven't we learned from that yet, Deepwater Horizon was just the most recent example.

Re: What can a technologist do about climate change?

#139

Post by clock_tower » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 8:43 PM UTC

grenzbegriff wrote: post #115

Jemaclus wrote: post #57

I've asked this question a few times but haven't really gotten a satisfactory answer. There are a lot of what I might call "epic problems" out there. Malaria, homelessness, HIV, refugees, war, climate change, income inequality, gender inequality, hate crimes. I don't know anything about creating vaccines or cures for malaria or HIV. I don't have a degree in social work or behavior science. I don't have any experience…

I think about the same things and ask the same question. My current plan is to save most of my money so I can reach financial independence very early. I'm 25 now, I'll be financially independent by 27, meaning I'll have enough money invested to live indefinitely on interest/dividends. My total expenses/spending is $25k/year and I'm sure I can keep them there if I want to. Most people who start making a silicon valley…

Congratulations! I spent my 20s having spotty, unpredictable employment and chasing large personal projects that never paid off, so I'm looking at financial independence around 43 instead. ($55,000/year of dividend income, ignoring capital gains; this will be after the 15% tax on dividends.) I wish I'd taken this possibility seriously at an earlier point in my life; I commend you for doing that, and I hope you find good ways to use your time.

Re: What can a technologist do about climate change?

#140

Post by spenrose » Tue, Nov 24, 2015, 8:44 PM UTC

spenrose wrote: post #61

(1) This is great. (2) Political economy is a much bigger issue right now than technology. Most of what we need to do is deploy, and the tech we have is good enough for that. (3) Low-hanging fruit for self-identified "Technologists" is to reconsider some of the blind spots caused by their social identities. David Roberts explains: http://www.vox.com/2015/8/27/9214015/tech-nerds-politics

Also, I'd like to see "Tools for problem finding" augmented with "tools for POLICY problem finding". The state governments of California and New York, for example, do amazing work transforming the big beast of legacy systems. Bret cites some of the former's, and notes the specific example of CAISOs plea for grid storage. Better visibility of techies into policy could help a lot. Dave Roberts has done great work on this:

http://vox.com/authors/david-roberts