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Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

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Re: Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

#131

According to crunchbase, they raised money at a $3.25B valuation in 2012. If they are IPOing at $2.66B now, that means a lot of stock options granted in-between are going to be worthless, unless they were granted at some very different price...

It's probable the internal, common valuation was much less.

Re: Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess what I'm getting at is something like this: If you're given 1% of the company in the form of stock options as an employee, how can one get a grip on what that's worth should a company IPO? Like, if I came in as a high-level hire at Square. Early in the game. Jack gave me 1% of the company in the form of employee stock options. Now I'm vested. What would that mean to me now, after an IPO? How does one even beg…

You would have been given an option to purchase an absolute number of shares, not a percentage. Let's say 10K. That may have been worth 1% when you were granted them, but as more shares are issued in subsequent funding rounds / IPO, your 10K will constitute a smaller percentage of the bigger pie. This is called dilution. You still have 10K shares, though, and they will still be worth $9/share at the moment the compan…

What I was saying with the "destroyed" was something like a reverse stock split. (Your proportional ownership stays the same, but your number of shares reduce.) The idea I was communicating that the number of shares itself is not a meaningful judge of anything unless you understand what those shares represent.

If covenants are not in place, you could also "destroy" the proportional ownership of shares by diluting down to a negligible value.

I guess what I'm saying is that people should always be sure they can trust management, ask for a cap table and probably consult a lawyer.

Re: Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chrome Mac renders it correctly.

Since it's a character in Unicode's "private use area," its correct rendering is unspecified. (That code point's "use and interpretation may be determined by private agreement among cooperating users" according to the Unicode standard.)

Correct as in "as the original poster intended", not as in "as the spec specifies".

Re: Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

#134
post #129

I've always wondered - why was it so easy to replicate Square's scanning device? Seems like about 6 months after they really started gaining traction, PayPal came out with their copycat triangle one, and then a cascade of copycats. It went from not being a thing to there being tons of them overnight. I would imagine there would be somewhat of a barrier to entry, but it seems it's a fairly easy device to create?

Which is why Square's growth has been so impressive. It totally dominates the "dongle" market despite, as you note, the ease in copying it by well-resourced competitors.

Square is also subsidizing massive numbers of small transactions, something that is much more difficult to compete with (who wants to compete with someone willing to lose huge sums of money?).

Re: Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

#135
post #5

Why would they price it at such a low multiple of revenue? Massive liabilities or something?

Very low margin business. As a multiple of net revenue, it's at the high range of comparable payment processors.

30-35% margins are exceptional in this type of business.

Re: Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

#136
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Effectively, yes. If an employee has 10,000 options with a $1 strike that means they can purchase 10,000 shares for $1 each. Since the shares are worth $9 the employee can then sell those shares immediately for an $8 profit, or $80,000. As far as how many shares Square has, it's much more than 300k. That's just what they're offering to the public. That percentage is listed in their S1 filing somewhere How many shares…

I'm seeing reports that Khosla led a Series A round of $10 million at $0.22/share ( http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/09/square-ipo-will-net-big-win-f... ). At a $40M valuation. $40M/$0.22 = ~182 million shares at that point? So they've almost doubled the number of shares they started with if they're IPOing at 300 million shares. Does that sound like a reasonable bit of math?

At a $40M valuation, Khosla got 25% of the company at that time. They have $10m/$.22 shares or ~45M shares of the 182M shares you mention. They're netting $945M (sale)-$10M(invested)=~$409M.

Between Series A and IPO they had roughly 40% of their stake wiped out through dilution. (45M/182M=25%-> 45M/300M=15%) The dilution happened because, during that time Square issued 118M shares to investors in trade for the investor money. The company valuation at each round was determined by: Investment/shares issuedTotal shares outstanding after transaction.

Re: Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

#137
post #102

Is anyone willing to give a contrarian take? I'll give it a shot: Square is an ambitious company with some great engineers, stellar UX and a giant total addressable market. Their business loans are interesting and could grow into something important. Square readers are a fashion accessory for hip businesses. No sooner would a coffee shop be seen without a Square reader and an Edison bulb than its yuppie hipsters patr…

No sooner would a coffee shop be seen without a Square reader and an Edison bulb I'm not so sure about that. I'd agree that they all have "fancy" (for want of a better word) payment systems, but I don't think there's a reason they have to be the fancy ones made by Square. But more importantly: the US is (finally) moving to chipped and tap-to-pay transactions. That means that pretty much all merchant hardware is going…

I have a quick question about this - there is exactly one business in my area that has actually switched over to chipped cards, and that's Home Depot. Everyone else goes "lol we don't do that, use the magnetic swipe like a normal person" when I try it. I thought that the adoption date was in October, and seeing as how everyone has the machines already... what the hell is going on?

Re: Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

#138

According to crunchbase, they raised money at a $3.25B valuation in 2012. If they are IPOing at $2.66B now, that means a lot of stock options granted in-between are going to be worthless, unless they were granted at some very different price...

The S-1 contains a table with number of options granted as well as strike price on various dates since June 20, 2014. Some other data can be determined from the option grants for executives. Here's a rough list:

  Date               Strike ($)
  ==============================
  July 25, 2012       2.73
  May 31, 2013        2.90
  August 27, 2013     3.33
  February 27, 2014   7.25
  June 20, 2014       8.23
  August 16, 2014     9.11
  December 17, 2014  10.06
  March 20, 2015     11.28
  May 14, 2015       13.09
  June 17, 2015      13.94
  July 9, 2015       14.81
  August 11, 2015    15.25
  September 16, 2015 15.39

Re: Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

#139
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No sooner would a coffee shop be seen without a Square reader and an Edison bulb I'm not so sure about that. I'd agree that they all have "fancy" (for want of a better word) payment systems, but I don't think there's a reason they have to be the fancy ones made by Square. But more importantly: the US is (finally) moving to chipped and tap-to-pay transactions. That means that pretty much all merchant hardware is going…

I have a quick question about this - there is exactly one business in my area that has actually switched over to chipped cards, and that's Home Depot. Everyone else goes "lol we don't do that, use the magnetic swipe like a normal person" when I try it. I thought that the adoption date was in October, and seeing as how everyone has the machines already... what the hell is going on?

Merchants can continue to accept mag stripe transactions but they do so at their own risk. Failing to switch to EMV by the switchover date in October means that any fraud that occurs via a non-EMV transaction is now the merchant's liability. Instead of credit card companies and banks eating the losses from fraud, the individual merchant eats it now.

Re: Square Prices Its IPO at $9, giving it a $2.7B valuation

#140
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No sooner would a coffee shop be seen without a Square reader and an Edison bulb I'm not so sure about that. I'd agree that they all have "fancy" (for want of a better word) payment systems, but I don't think there's a reason they have to be the fancy ones made by Square. But more importantly: the US is (finally) moving to chipped and tap-to-pay transactions. That means that pretty much all merchant hardware is going…

I have a quick question about this - there is exactly one business in my area that has actually switched over to chipped cards, and that's Home Depot. Everyone else goes "lol we don't do that, use the magnetic swipe like a normal person" when I try it. I thought that the adoption date was in October, and seeing as how everyone has the machines already... what the hell is going on?

There's an interesting set of incentives at play. The October deadline was actually a shift in liability - now businesses still using swipe transactions will become liable for any losses due to fraudulent transactions, while the card companies will continue to be liable for chipped ones.

Beyond that I don't know too much - maybe the price of the hardware is such that it makes sense to risk it for a little while before buying a chip-capable machine (do people lease them?). The part I really don't understand is that there are businesses with chipped terminals that still insist on you swiping, I can't work out why they'd want that at all.

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