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VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks

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Re: VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks

#331

Post by cmdkeen »

avar wrote: post #184
cmdkeen wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whilst I'm not the OP I'll happily give my thoughts as a not very good Anglican - who embodies the "great Anglican fudge". 1. Offended no. I'll think you're rather rude, the same as if I wrote $manifestDestiny = false. If you know someone you can have banter with them. 2. IT has all sorts of articles of faith. vi versus emacs, I'm weird as I like nano. Religion is a way of living your life, my code is in no way affec…

> As a counter-point let me ask a non-religious person, > what makes an act good? You might be interested in reading The Moral Landscape by Sam Harris for an in-depth start at an answer to that question. It's a secular look at morality and how we can reason about morality without a foundation of unscientific ideas (e.g. the existence of a deity). In essence it makes the point that the religious idea of morality drive…

jdright raises some good points. Which is kind of the point, no-one has come up with a good "right" way to live or act and it is often even harder without a theist grounding to decide on some pretty major points. You can clearly construct ethical philosophies but it is very hard to compare them to others and say whether one is better than another. Especially once you start getting into "brains in vats" territory.

Plus going back to burning witches and stoning homosexuals, really? Firstly there's some really interesting language translation behind "suffer not the witch to live" - in that isn't what it really says. Burning people has to be seen in the context of history and politics.

It isn't about "cherry picking". Different traditions have their basis, I'm not sola scriptorum, the CofE believes in "scripture, reason and tradition". But in all cases it is about looking at scripture as a complex document full of metaphor, stories and allegories. Then making an argument based on that which can be debated, discussed and a conclusion arrived at - and one that can later be decided as perhaps wrong. What you also need to bear in mind is that significant parts of what Jesus is recorded as saying is pointing out areas of religion where the Jews had become caught up in process or tradition rather than the underlying message.

Re: VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks

#332

Post by jules »

seren wrote: post #138
jules wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Up until a few weeks ago I used to think that religion is just a facade, but I no longer think that is true. Religion is the center of their beliefs, and a very important factor that drives their actions. When the Boston bomber says "Know you are fighting men who look into the barrel of your gun and see heaven, how can you compete with that?" he is not lying. This is what these people truly believe. They think the me…

I believe it is a bit more complex. From the point of view of the bomber this is certainly true. But there are also people using their gullibility. I have read multiple times that Isis has amongst its member ex Baathist officer from Saddam, Ba'ath party which was at least originally more secular and left-leaning. I am pretty sure that some of these people are not that into the religious aspect, except as a recruiting…

There are certainly multiple things at play here. I think the three main ones are:

1. Religion

2. Politics

3. Personal gain

For instance the politics around hating the west and hating Israel, and personal gain in sex deprived young men getting to rape women in Syria and getting a salary that's 5x as much as the average Syrian. These three parts are intertwined and can't be separated from each other. Most media focuses solely on #2, but a theory built solely around #2 does not explain the behaviour of ISIS very well, whereas a theory built around all 3 aspects fits the data very well.

As for the idea that high ranking members of ISIS do not truly believe in the ideology, and they are just manipulating everyone for personal gain, it is possible but I consider it unlikely. The leader of the Heaven's Gate suicide cult also committed suicide himself along with the others. And George Bush is himself a true Christian believer. I consider it unlikely that ISIS is an exception.

It is interesting that the only people equipped to intuitively understand the sincerity of the metaphysical beliefs of a suicide bomber are those who are or were in a cult or fundamentalist religion. For instance Megan Phelps-Roper who left the Westboro Baptist Church does understand this.

Re: VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks

#334

Post by crusso »

DanBC wrote: post #302
crusso wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Significant numbers of non-Islam subscribers hold ideas that are incompatible with an open society too If that's your contention then you'd need to account for the high terrorist attack output of Islamists vs other non-Islam subscribers.

US citizens are at greater risk of harm from police officers (who kill about 1,000 people per year) than from Islamist terrorists. US citizens are at greater risk of far right or Christian extremists than they are of Islamist extremists - see the numbers of people injured and killed by various mass shooters or clinic bombings.

US citizens are at greater risk of harm from police officers

How is that a fair or even interesting comparison, though? Islamist terrorists aren't killing people ostensibly engaged in criminal acts. Islamist terrorists aren't otherwise expected to be agents of the government charged with using physical force to protect the laws. Islamist terrorists target innocents in a deliberate effort to maximize damage and loss of life. Body counts tell almost nothing of the story in an honest comparison of the threat from police officers vs Islamic terrorists.

US citizens are at greater risk of far right or Christian extremists than they are of Islamist extremists

This is a slightly more interesting comparison, but even then you have to look at who the FBI and other law enforcement agencies are watching to understand that Christian extremists are individual actors who target specifics like abortion providers. They're not looking to take down all of Western society. They aren't amassing armies in other countries to assert 6th century law on all the territories that they conquer.

So sure, Christian terrorists' kill numbers might be comparable or even greater than Islamic terrorists domestically (if you unfairly exclude 9/11) - but that doesn't mean that they're the same level of threat in a strategic geopolitical sense.

Re: VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks

#335

Post by cmdkeen »

sangnoir wrote: post #206
cmdkeen wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Islamic State are different from AQ in that they have territorial ambitions, the clue is in the name. Their PR success is buoyed by their successes. France has the expeditionary capability to assist in driving the IS out of the territory it currently occupies. If France doesn't care about who takes control of the territory afterwards, as long as they aren't terrorist supporting Islamists then it does have the cap…

I think the west needs to think long and hard about nation-building, not just fighting wars. They also need to have frank discussions with their nominal 'allies' in the ME who are driving a lot of the instability. I have no doubts France has the capability to "seriously damage" Daesh, but what about Daesh's successor - which is likely to be just as bad (or worse)? Unfortunately, it seems like democracy (with it's 4-/…

IS' successor would not be a territory holding aspirant state, it would have to be more like AQ - which we have already significantly degraded.

Now there is the interesting concept of the rise of the "lone wolf" or individual cells that don't really have central co-ordination. Would Western intervention in Syria cause more of them? Would their rise be countered by reducing or removing the ability of IS to generate attacks? There's a debate to be had.

Re: VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks

#336

Post by vox_mollis »

steveklabnik wrote: post #276
crusso wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Significant numbers of non-Islam subscribers hold ideas that are incompatible with an open society too If that's your contention then you'd need to account for the high terrorist attack output of Islamists vs other non-Islam subscribers.

Not Jacques, but from a few months back: "White Supremacists More Dangerous To America Than Foreign Terrorists, Study Says" http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/24/domestic-terrorism-... > At least 48 people have been killed stateside by right-wing > extremists in the 14 years since since the September 11 > attacks -- almost twice as many as were killed by > self-identified jihadists in that time. As Jacques says, "…

That's a very good research methodology. Excluding non-stateside attacks and arbitrarily selecting 2002 as the starting point to arrive at a likely preselected conclusion.

Re: VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks

#337

Post by anjanb »

coldtea wrote: post #301
fauigerzigerk wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>And a very large number of people in my country would happily throw back those fleeing the carnage to become victims of that 40% That statement really doesn't make much sense at all. People are fleeing a war, among them people from the 40% and the 60% group alike. And no one in Europe is advocating throwing anyone back into a war zone. Many want the refugees stay somewhere in the region instead of letting them come…

> There is no 40% group of the population in Europe that holds views that are anywhere near as disgusting as that. Well, only 50+ years ago there was an over 40% population in the US that thought that blacks were inferior and shouldn't sit in the same restaurants/hotels/schools with whites. In fact it was even law in some states. Beyond that, there were about all major western countries, France, UK, Belgium, Holland,…

very nice answer! thanks for having the pragmatism and courage to say out loud.

Re: VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks

#338

Post by TheCoelacanth »

wangii wrote: post #133

the thing I never understand: why God/Allah even care if I believe in him or not?

Because a meme involving a god that doesn't care if you believe in him has low evolutionary fitness because believers have no reason to spread their belief.

Re: VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks

#339

Post by cmdkeen »

utku_karatas2 wrote: post #185
cmdkeen wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Islamic State are different from AQ in that they have territorial ambitions, the clue is in the name. Their PR success is buoyed by their successes. France has the expeditionary capability to assist in driving the IS out of the territory it currently occupies. If France doesn't care about who takes control of the territory afterwards, as long as they aren't terrorist supporting Islamists then it does have the cap…

I am afraid the answer to all of those questions is NOPE. ISIS did grow and will continue to grow as long as there is foreign military existence on Middle-east soil. It is extremely easy to recruit people to do anything while their national/religious pride is being pissed on by their historical enemy.

IS grew out of the vacuum of a civil war in Syria and is predicated on creating a Caliphate. They cannot physically grow if they are not able to gain ground. Their recruitment message is likely to be significantly weakened if they lose territory and battles. Unlike AQ or even the Taliban of recent years they are not able to avoid pitched battles, they can't melt into the background - they would have to stand and fight for their territory - thus they can be defeated.

Re: VLC contributor living in Aleppo writing about the Paris attacks

#340

Post by alvarosm »

1_player wrote: post #329
alvarosm wrote: post #304

It never ceases to amaze me to what lengths people go to stay in the land they're attached to. I'd have fled my country a very long time ago if I had ISIS that close.

I'm afraid it's not as easy as booking a flight and taking a cab to the airport.

It could be, depends on the circumstances. Of course you have a point, there are always family ties and so on. But even without leaving Syria I guess you could be at safer places than Aleppo.
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