It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars • Hacker News Board

Re: It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars

#31

Post by rayiner » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 4:29 PM UTC

> Our 12-year-old daughter who, like us, is a big fan of The Martian by Andy Weir, said, “I can’t stand that people think we’re all going to live on Mars after we destroy our own planet. Even after we’ve made the Earth too hot and polluted for humans, it still won’t be as bad as Mars. At least there’s plenty of water here, and the atmosphere won’t make your head explode.”

Kid has a good head on her shoulders. She sounds like an engineer.

I grew up dreaming about humanity exploring space. I majored in aerospace engineering in college. It was incredibly educational--it taught me we're not going to Mars. Not in my lifetime, probably not in the lifetime of any of my descendants who still remember my name. It would be fantastically expensive and there would be no point. There are no resources out there that would justify the kind of economic investment necessary. Committing that money here on Earth would be transformative far beyond what it could be if spent on Mars.

Moreover, the technology has plateaued, leaving us with wildly unfavorable physical realities. You know how progress in CPUs has stalled? How the last several generations of Intel processors hasn't really gotten faster, and all the focus is on making them cheaper and more power efficient? That happened to aerospace technology around 1970. Now we spend billions of dollars to eke out 0.5% gains in efficiency.

Re: It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars

#32

Post by carapat_virulat » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 4:30 PM UTC

NickM wrote: post #24

The author's main argument seems to be that nobody will want to do it. But historically, there have been numerous cases of colonists giving up a safe, easy life to go live somewhere inhospitable and dangerous. When I think about the first settlers that sailed across the Atlantic to colonize America, it seems amazing to me that people were willing to give up so much and endure such risks and hardships, but there have…

The difference is that pioneers in the past had been able to survive in boats for long periods of time for thousands of years. At the moment we aren't able to keep a self-sustained environment on the Earth orbit, which is relatively cheap to get to, or on the Moon, which is still on the Earth's gravity well and relatively cheat to arrive compared with Mars.

So we aren't able to keep people alive in a lake at 100m from the shore without resupplying them every week, which means that sending somebody to the center of the ocean and expecting them to survive without any help for years is nowhere near our reach.

Looking at the past we can think that all achievements just took brave people that tried, but actually those achievements took place on a confluence of many favorable material and social conditions.

Re: It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars

#33

Post by rwc » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 4:30 PM UTC

NickM wrote: post #24

The author's main argument seems to be that nobody will want to do it. But historically, there have been numerous cases of colonists giving up a safe, easy life to go live somewhere inhospitable and dangerous. When I think about the first settlers that sailed across the Atlantic to colonize America, it seems amazing to me that people were willing to give up so much and endure such risks and hardships, but there have…

Seems like you're glossing over the whole religious persecution thing.

Re: It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars

#34

Post by cryoshon » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 4:31 PM UTC

I agreed with the author somewhat, up until here:

"There is nothing wrong with being excited about exploring space. There’s nothing wrong with dreaming about setting up colonies in space either. But a colony on Mars would need to be a nearly perfectly self-contained, resource neutral system that harvests energy from the sun and is rarely or never re-supplied. That is currently beyond the reach of science and human ingenuity."

It's completely within our reach if we prioritize it over other things, namely the financial cost.

There's also the "things sometimes don't make sense" aspect of space exploration. Do we NEED a space station doing space research? No. Did we need to go to the moon? Some would say yes, but if you look at the economic incentives, the answer is no. Not everything can be boiled down to cash in versus cash out.

I think space travel is worthwhile to invest in right now. To everyone squabbling that the money could be used to help people here on earth: no, it could not, because money does not flow around in the earth in a utilitarian fashion, it flows based off of where people think they can make more money or do something cool. The people investing their time and money in spaceflight are not going to be buying rice for the hungry no matter how much of a "moonshot" space projects are.

Re: It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars

#35

Post by darkmighty » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 4:32 PM UTC

mitchtbaum wrote: post #23

GeorgeOrr wrote: post #4

Think of all the great innovations that have come from people who realized that doing hard stuff is hard so don't try.

And what of those men and women wise enough to work on what was good and needed rather than what they had in their _wildest_ dreams?

Good and needed better mousetraps.

Re: It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars

#36

Post by fluxquanta » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 4:32 PM UTC

NickM wrote: post #24

The author's main argument seems to be that nobody will want to do it. But historically, there have been numerous cases of colonists giving up a safe, easy life to go live somewhere inhospitable and dangerous. When I think about the first settlers that sailed across the Atlantic to colonize America, it seems amazing to me that people were willing to give up so much and endure such risks and hardships, but there have…

The difference between the "inhospitable" New World and Mars is that Mars is actually inhospitable.

Re: It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars

#37

Post by mitchtbaum » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 4:38 PM UTC

darkmighty wrote: post #35

mitchtbaum wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what of those men and women wise enough to work on what was good and needed rather than what they had in their _wildest_ dreams?

Good and needed better mousetraps.

And a better Earth?

Re: It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars

#38

Post by yongjik » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 4:39 PM UTC

NickM wrote: post #24

The author's main argument seems to be that nobody will want to do it. But historically, there have been numerous cases of colonists giving up a safe, easy life to go live somewhere inhospitable and dangerous. When I think about the first settlers that sailed across the Atlantic to colonize America, it seems amazing to me that people were willing to give up so much and endure such risks and hardships, but there have…

No, settlers weren't willing to give up so much, those people went on to colonize America precisely because they had so little to lose. They were already enduring poverty, hardship, and (in many cases) discrimination to such a degree that crossing the ocean and starting a new life in an unknown land inhabited with hostile indigenous tribes seemed a good enough deal in comparison.

In other words, imagine a developer in India who wants to move to SV but can't get a visa. Can he instead apply for a ship bound to Mars, and agree to work as an IT technician in lieu of paying for the trip (and all the food, water, and oxygen he will need in Mars)?

Until that is economically feasible, colonization of Mars will not happen, at least not in the same way colonization of America happened.

Re: It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars

#39

Post by darkmighty » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 4:39 PM UTC

crabasa wrote: post #28

I don't buy the author's arguments in general, but I think the comparison to Antarctica is probably the weakest. First of all, people have actually made a point of traveling to and setting-up permanent base stations in Antarctica. Second, although the raw temperatures might be similar it is the weather in Antarctica that is brutal. Bryd Station exists in blizzard-like conditions 65% of the year [1]. Obviously this wo…

Overall however establishing a habitat on Antarctica is vastly easier than on Mars, assuming we won't be able to source complex materials in situ or fabricate for at least 50 yr. The atmospheric pressure, atmospheric composition and water availability being the main advantages. If the snowfall is particularly intense solar power might be troublesome, but it's still vastly easier to settle. Proof: we reached the south pole in 1911 and have a station there since 1956.

Re: It’s completely ridiculous to think that humans could live on Mars

#40

Post by warfangle » Fri, Oct 30, 2015, 4:41 PM UTC

yongjik wrote: post #30

Amorymeltzer wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? NASA has paid HUGE dividends. >Estimates of the return on investment in the spaaace program range from $7 for every $1 spent on the Apollo Program to $40 for every $1 spent on spaaace development today. [1] That money is generally spent in the US, on good, high-paying jobs.[2] The products NASA has created are EVERYWHERE[3] — The general rule of thumb is if it's wireless, fireproof, or small, it's using technolo…

gp is not complaining about current state of NASA, but about a hypothetical adventure with high chance of failure that would burn enough money to send a dozen robotic probes to every planet in the solar system.

> send a dozen robotic probes to every planet in the solar system.

And not have any dividends at all in terms of sustainable environmental cycles....