China to begin two-child policy • Hacker News Board

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#61

Post by zo1 » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 12:39 PM UTC

ZenoArrow wrote: post #34

laichzeit0 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean like the problem of telling people they can't just drive cars or own firearms and need to meet some competence criteria first, i.e. licensing? If so, I totally support the idea of licensing human breeding.

> "If so, I totally support the idea of licensing human breeding." That sort of licensing is ripe for abuse. What would happen if someone in power took that license away from you just because they didn't agree with your political views?

Then your problem isn't the license. The problem is your government.

I.e. If the license becomes a problem, it's because you've got bigger problems.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#62

Post by tremon » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 12:45 PM UTC

MC7447a wrote: post #24

s_dev wrote: post #9

Overpopulation is an interesting problem, it exponentially affects every other problem we have -- some balance will have to be found between ultimately telling people they can't kids or maintaining that those people have autonomy over their own lives and can make such a decision. I don't know what the solution is - perhaps making the developing world developed as fast as possible.

Overpopulation is a non-problem. Fertility has fallow to near- or below-replacement rate everywhere in the world, except Afrika (which will likely follow in the next decades.) A nice talk from Hans Rosling on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eA5BM7CE5-8

You mean, it is not a problem because the planet can support that many? Or do you mean it is a problem, but it will solve itself? I don't think either is correct. The first is only true today because non-First World inhabitants are living on a much smaller ecological footprint than Europe and the US. However, that footprint is increasing rapidly. The second reading at least acknowledges there is a problem, but I think you are underestimating the correction required. I think the correction will not happen (at all, or fast enough) through natural means.

We are already at more than twice a sustainable population level. Even the most generous estimates I've seen place the Earth's carrying capacity at 7.7 billion people. But most estimates say that the Earth can support 2-3 billion people at modest levels of first-world consumption. The more our planet will be stripped of its resources now (whether through overfishing, destruction of forests, or climate change), the lower the sustainable planet population will become.

Put differently, we need to lose at least 5 billion people in the next decades without replacing them with a younger generation to be able to sustain the emancipation of emerging countries. It's not about population growth stabilizing, we need both massive negative population growth and halving of current energy use in developed countries. The only "natural" means through which I can see that happening is massive food shortages or horrific wars, and I think it's a pretty safe bet that the former will trigger the latter. It's also a pretty safe bet that our global society will disappear in that scenario, so I'd rather we have better solutions before that happens.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#63

Post by oafitupa » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 12:48 PM UTC

sethbannon wrote: post #56

From the article "All couples will now be allowed to have two children". So it seems China isn't so much ending its one-child policy, as augmenting it by one to a two-child policy. This means the brutal and cruel enforcement will continue, only it will kick in at the third child instead of at the second.

Any suggestions?

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#64

Post by jazzyk » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 12:55 PM UTC

ZenoArrow wrote: post #34

laichzeit0 wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean like the problem of telling people they can't just drive cars or own firearms and need to meet some competence criteria first, i.e. licensing? If so, I totally support the idea of licensing human breeding.

> "If so, I totally support the idea of licensing human breeding." That sort of licensing is ripe for abuse. What would happen if someone in power took that license away from you just because they didn't agree with your political views?

Not just political views.

Most people would agree that mentally ill people should not have children.

But what constitutes mentally ill? The line is fuzzy - perhaps someone is just a bit "quirky", but still could be a good parent?

In order to have a license the criteria would have to be crystal clear and added to the Constitution (sorry, US-centric). And even if in the Constitution, someone could abuse it (see: NSA, surveillance).

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#65

Post by gadders » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 12:56 PM UTC

nabla9 wrote: post #20

Once-child policy was brutally enforced and cruel. It was also highly effective way to reduce poverty. China vs. India: GDP per capita versus fertility rate http://www.google.se/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ct...

It also was highly effective at having loads of female babies/embryos/foetuses aborted and the demographics skewed in favour of too many men: http://www.forbes.com/sites/china/2011/05/13/chinas-growing-...

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#66

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 12:56 PM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #42

kirsebaer wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you going to force women to abort "unlicensed" children? Force women to have birth control implants? Up until the 1990s in Spain, many thousands of children were systematically stolen from political activists and others with the wrong politics or wrong lifestyle. Parents were told that their newborn had died. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15335899

A less severe form would be financial incentives for licensed parents. You're still free to have children if you want, but you're only supported by the state if you got a license. Pair this with free birth control implants and abortions for everyone who wants them and you get most of the effect without the use of force. You could even pay men to get a vasectomy.

[deleted]

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#67

Post by eru » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 12:57 PM UTC

s_dev wrote: post #51

MC7447a wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overpopulation is a non-problem. Fertility has fallow to near- or below-replacement rate everywhere in the world, except Afrika (which will likely follow in the next decades.) A nice talk from Hans Rosling on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eA5BM7CE5-8

I think perhaps you're conflating world population with the Chinese population. Overpopulation can occur in small areas without the world being too overpopulated as a whole -- most of them in SE Asia. If theres lots of people and limited resources, the math simply won't hold up. It affects issues like the environment and human health.

Singapore is doing fine at high population density.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#68

Post by LoSboccacc » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 1:00 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #53

LoSboccacc wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that only moves the problem further along the road - much further, but still: world won't be able to feed infinite humans so a restriction policy will eventually be needed (or systematic culling, depending on whichever comes first between enlightenment and desperation) an interesting resulting problem of which is that population will keep aging. solutions will need to take into account non productive member in their…

We can't feed infinite humans, but if we covered the earth with greenhouses, we could feed trillions of people. Overpopulation causes many problems, being able to feed them is not one of them.

True it can feed and house many more people, but eventually we'll reach the cap.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#69

Post by LoSboccacc » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 1:01 PM UTC

XorNot wrote: post #54

LoSboccacc wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that only moves the problem further along the road - much further, but still: world won't be able to feed infinite humans so a restriction policy will eventually be needed (or systematic culling, depending on whichever comes first between enlightenment and desperation) an interesting resulting problem of which is that population will keep aging. solutions will need to take into account non productive member in their…

Except in no part of the world of the modern world has human population increase continued unchecked. Most western countries populations grow only because of immigration - fertility is below the replacement rate. Overpopulation is the "problem" people trot out so they don't have to talk about things they might actually have to do something about, like switching to renewable energy sources, or improving women's educat…

Yes and that's why I included culling in the options. Doesn't need to be voluntary. Diseases, war, famine all are under the same umbrella.

Re: China to begin two-child policy

#70

Post by ZenoArrow » Thu, Oct 29, 2015, 1:03 PM UTC

zo1 wrote: post #61

ZenoArrow wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "If so, I totally support the idea of licensing human breeding." That sort of licensing is ripe for abuse. What would happen if someone in power took that license away from you just because they didn't agree with your political views?

Then your problem isn't the license. The problem is your government. I.e. If the license becomes a problem, it's because you've got bigger problems.

> "Then your problem isn't the license. The problem is your government."

The license will still be administered by someone / some group. Whether you call those with the administrative powers a 'government' or not isn't really important.