Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion • Hacker News Board

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#141

Post by dragonwriter » Sat, Oct 24, 2015, 2:42 PM UTC

gaius wrote: post #115

dragonwriter wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > Many people wouldn't consider the UBI to be enough to sustain their lifestyles so they'd continue to work > No they wouldn't. They'd vote for an increase in UBI. UBI isn't magic. If you raise UBI to high for the conditions in the economy to sustain, it drives inflation such that further increases to the nominal UBI level produce ever smaller increases to the real UBI level. (And people who understand this, and th…

That's nice in theory but unfortunately we have real-world counterexample: Greece. The people will happily vote for their government to spend more than they can afford, and they'll do it again and again.

Greece is not a example of the people voting for more UBI instead of working, nor was the effect discussed related to what the government can afford, it was related to fundamental economic limits on the ability to raise real levels of a UBI no matter what happens with nominal levels.

That people can vote for a government which enacts policies which have an unsustainable balance of spending vs revenue is true independently of the presence of absence of a UBI, and not any kind of argument against a UBI. And it also has inherent limited, as seen recently in Greece, by access of the government to credit.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#142

Post by afterburner » Sat, Oct 24, 2015, 4:11 PM UTC

MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #116

Falkon1313 wrote: post #93

Consider agriculture. It used to employ over 80% of the workforce, now less than 2%. But now, with over 98% unemployment, we're not starving. Instead, we're wasting 40% of our food, exporting food, and reading articles about obesity epidemics and how the grocery store is reducing its 57 varieties of ketchup so that we won't have so much difficulty choosing. Manufacturing is going that way. We're well into the disposa…

i think a major problem is that basic income will breed some very undesirable attitudes with those people who will depend on long term basic income. Dependency on handouts breeds passivity and indifference, you will also see a very violent and angry younger generation - these people might be very angry at anybody who sticks out of the gray norm of basic income. i think basic income will not breed critical thinkers, i…

Nice try with the commie scare. The Soviet Union was the opposite of UBI. They maximized employment, even if it meant multiple people doing one boring job (imagine 5 convenience store clerks in one store, forced to the there all day). And most people couldn't actually choose what they would do in life. This is the opposite of what UBI would do for people.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#143

Post by rory096 » Sat, Oct 24, 2015, 4:39 PM UTC

bryanlarsen wrote: post #117

sktrdie wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Instead of UBI, we need to pressure our governments to heavily regulate how much the free market can destroy the environment and ourselves. Then, that 80%, who is unemployed, will work on making sure the agriculture is healthy, harmless, diverse, etc. You can expand this thinking to anything else, but regulation is the key. By regulating you create jobs that weren't possible in a pure free market. And of course don't…

Let me translate into economist friendly speech for you: Rather than "regulate", you want to "internalize externalities". Make bad things (like emitting carbon) more expensive by making people pay the estimated true cost of their actions. And don't be afraid to apply it to sacred cows, like agriculture. For example, it's probably tillage that is the most harmful thing that is done by modern agriculture. Tax that. Sur…

>We need to stop categorizing people without traditional jobs as 'unemployed'.

The only people I've ever seen do this are those who claim the government is 'hiding' the true unemployment rate. The standard U3 rate only includes people actively looking for work.

Of course, the BLS publishes 6 rates with various criteria as well as the overall labor force participation rate, but U3 is the indicator mainstream commentators generally use.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#144

Post by SHIT_TALKER » Sat, Oct 24, 2015, 5:01 PM UTC

Falkon1313 wrote: post #88

SHIT_TALKER wrote: post #8

In the studies mentioned, were immigrants able to move into the areas receiving UBI and avail themselves of those funds? It doesn't appear so. What difference might that have made? And wouldn't that have made them more realistic experiments? (Were the experiments specifically designed to produce positive outcomes?) Can the experiments even be considered to have been about UBI? What does giving money to a small group…

I don't know whether they did that in the studies, but here in the U.S., we have a long tradition of immigrants moving in and participating in the local bounty. We celebrate it, in fact. A major holiday coming up next month is centered around exactly that - immigrants being thankful for the wealth they had received.

That's one of the most disingenuous statements I've ever read. The first European colonists were all scratching an existence out of the ground via their labor and celebrated, as was their religious tradition, the bountiful harvest they had "received" via Providence. That in no way resembles a modern nation-state making direct cash payments (money taken via taxes from the native population) to whoever makes it, by hook or by crook, across the border.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#145

Post by MichaelMoser123 » Sat, Oct 24, 2015, 5:59 PM UTC

afterburner wrote: post #142

MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i think a major problem is that basic income will breed some very undesirable attitudes with those people who will depend on long term basic income. Dependency on handouts breeds passivity and indifference, you will also see a very violent and angry younger generation - these people might be very angry at anybody who sticks out of the gray norm of basic income. i think basic income will not breed critical thinkers, i…

Nice try with the commie scare. The Soviet Union was the opposite of UBI. They maximized employment, even if it meant multiple people doing one boring job (imagine 5 convenience store clerks in one store, forced to the there all day). And most people couldn't actually choose what they would do in life. This is the opposite of what UBI would do for people.

commie scare? labeling away you opponents is a very nice method of arguing, it also is not without historic precedence.

Now concerning choice - you better ask some long term unemployed about the degree of choice that they are experiencing. I guess that this UBI thing is only a catchword to turn long term unemployment into the socially accepted norm.

Still in my book: UBI creates a situation that is very similar to the hidden unemployment of socialism - indifference and apathy is the result when your salary and living conditions have absolutely no connection to the effort that you have to put into it all.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#146

Post by rebootthesystem » Sat, Oct 24, 2015, 6:39 PM UTC

Sammi wrote: post #127

rebootthesystem wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but what? People making candles couldn't imagine another set of people would be employed for years making light bulbs. Newspaper owners, investors, writers and workers could not foresee the Internet. Nobody could imagine making money with software that played back fart sounds or allowed you to launch an angry bird into a structure. The point is: Not being able to answer the question is of no consequence. Progress a…

But all the progress is only going in the direction of automation. The long term macro trend is clear. Why do we have so many pointless jobs today?

> The long term macro trend is clear.

Not to me.

If I had to make an attempt to predict the future I'd say there might be two trends. And they are opposite extremes:

First, the good jobs require more and more knowledge.

Second, automation, as you suggested, might result in jobs where very little knowledge is necessary. "Push this button. If that light turns red, push that button".

Then again, even in what could be seen as "push-button jobs" a great deal of knowledge and experience is required. One extreme example might be industrial CNC machines. You can, quite literally, push a button and watch it go. However, doing this without knowledge and experience would result in disaster.

I don't have a bleak view of the future. I recognize we are really, really bad at predicting it. Worrying about this is probably a waste of time. In a place like the US even the poor live significantly better than they the "middle class" lived 500 to 100 years ago. We must be doing something right.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#147

Post by afterburner » Sat, Oct 24, 2015, 6:46 PM UTC

MichaelMoser123 wrote: post #145

afterburner wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice try with the commie scare. The Soviet Union was the opposite of UBI. They maximized employment, even if it meant multiple people doing one boring job (imagine 5 convenience store clerks in one store, forced to the there all day). And most people couldn't actually choose what they would do in life. This is the opposite of what UBI would do for people.

commie scare? labeling away you opponents is a very nice method of arguing, it also is not without historic precedence. Now concerning choice - you better ask some long term unemployed about the degree of choice that they are experiencing. I guess that this UBI thing is only a catchword to turn long term unemployment into the socially accepted norm. Still in my book: UBI creates a situation that is very similar to th…

Many put it tons of effort and live in near-poverty conditions. How do you think that feels as a disconnect between effort and result? They are trapped, with no options.

The indifference and apathy of bureaucratic communism comes from lack of choice, starting with who to vote for.

And as for long-term-unemployment... that's kind of the reason UBI is being proposed, because automation will eliminate so many jobs there simply won't be enough work to go around.

Would you prefer the new norm to be the owners of that automation forcing those locked out of work opportunities from birth into worse and worse living conditions, because in the automated future their labour has no value?

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#148

Post by worik » Sat, Oct 24, 2015, 8:41 PM UTC

randyrand wrote: post #77

paulsutter wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The money for basic income will come from automation driven productivity improvements. Many of the people who are "paying for it" (ie, putting in the thousands of man-years to create those technologies) have exactly that intent, to free people from drudgery. EDIT: pvnick, yes the consensus is measured in decades. Some think fewer, some think more, but yes and thanks.

Automation does not create profit, it reduces prices!!!!* *In markets ones with at least some competition Also, its important to note that even the machine owners wont make profits in a competitive market.

"Also, its important to note that even the machine owners wont make profits in a competitive market."

That is economics 101. But if you had stayed for the later classes you would have had to unlearn that. It is not true.

Maybe that is because "competitive markets do not exist" as the libertarians say, but whatever, in the world in which we live the top automaters are going to make super profits.

What will the world look like when the means of production belong to a small group? In a society (capitalist) where ownership implies control?

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#149

Post by worik » Sat, Oct 24, 2015, 8:42 PM UTC

ConceptJunkie wrote: post #120

kartan wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" how the people paying felt about it" Now I'm working for rich people. That gives them so much power that they corrupt politicians and all the system. I will prefer that that money went to people that needs it. And the Basic Income money goes for EVERYONE. If I loss my job I also get a benefit from it. The current system is broken and makes no sense at all. Who wants a system where a few have more than they will eve…

I'll really appreciate that $10,000 UBI I get from the government. It will help offset the $20,000 in extra taxes I have to pay for UBI.

That is right.

More taxes please.

Re: Universal Basic Income Will Likely Increase Social Cohesion

#150

Post by worik » Sat, Oct 24, 2015, 9:08 PM UTC

dragonbonheur wrote: post #107

nickff wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some approach the issue from a Kantian perspective, and ask 'what right does A have to take B's money and give it to C?'[1] Others (of a more utilitarian leaning) wonder whether redistribution will 'kill the engine of prosperity'. The USA has overtaken Britain in per capita GDP by growing 1% (point) faster per year for 100 years, and many believe that redistribution reduces growth. What part of this is "absolutely ri…

The part of it that is ridiculous is that Americans protect their richest minority without being part of it. Seriously, America is the country where paid sickness leaves or maternity leaves are not guaranteed. America is the country where waiters are expected to make the most of their living income from tips and not from their salary. America is the country where local governments have outlawed people from collecting…

America is the country that sends the most on health for the worst outcomes

America is the country that spends millions/billions/trillions invading desert countries and does not fund public education

America is the country where politicians have to publish in a register the bribes they take so voters know who they really represent (it is not he voters!)

America is the country that would not regulate derivatives and off market trading

America is not unique in any one of these things. But it is unique in being so rich and so dysfunctional. So smart and creative so cruel and failure prone.

And they have more military than the rest of the world combined, and they are quite will to use it for the indiscriminate slaughter of millions. Sending uniformed psychopaths all over the world to kill and maim was quite risky, so now all those smarts are turning to robots! Killing and maiming by remote control. Evil.

My hope? The USA elects a Tea Party slate of candidates and goes isolationist.

They can keep Elon Musk if they put their seven (or is it nine?) carrier groups in port and leave them there.

In a word (or two): Fuck Off.