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Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

theguardian.com

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Re: Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

#21
post #13
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Related question from a non-sports person, about those 'bargain' prices. How long does it take for a player to become legendary, and when does their price catch up? Is the contract a bargain because it locks-in the unknown player at a below-market price even after they become legendary? Or is it a bargain because the contract lasts a season or two and establishes the player's skill, after which they have inertia on t…

To expand on that a little with a software analogy, is it a bargain because they hired a talented intern who graduated into a full-time employee, or is it a bargain because they hired someone talented from a different country who has lower salary expectations?

[deleted]

Re: Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

#22
post #13
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Related question from a non-sports person, about those 'bargain' prices. How long does it take for a player to become legendary, and when does their price catch up? Is the contract a bargain because it locks-in the unknown player at a below-market price even after they become legendary? Or is it a bargain because the contract lasts a season or two and establishes the player's skill, after which they have inertia on t…

To expand on that a little with a software analogy, is it a bargain because they hired a talented intern who graduated into a full-time employee, or is it a bargain because they hired someone talented from a different country who has lower salary expectations?

Less about wages, more about signing on/purchase fee. The analogy doesn't really work because in the non football world employees are not bought and sold in the same way.

There is occasional talk about doing away with the system, as it goes against a lot of employee rights principles.

Re: Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

#23
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure Martial is as risky a bet as people make out, it's not like United don't have a similar analytics team in place (every premier league team does), doing the same kind of analysis. Arsene certainly revolutionised scouting, but I think now it's a lot more well understood by other managers.

The problem with applying analytics to Martial is the limited dataset - he only made about 50 appearances in his career before joining United. It's looking a good bet so far, but it's definitely a punt.

With young players, you take quantitative factors more into account than an older player. Staff and players at Manchester United have mentioned in interviews how Martial is extremely mature for a 19 year old, he is married with a child and obviously wants to provide for his family. The fact that he is French with limited English, means the tabloid horseshit rolls off his back and doesn't detract from his game.

Re: Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

#24
post #9
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? Couching is not all scouting... no one's denying that Wenger is always on the look out for young prospects. But Wenger is a sort of 'old fashioned' coach. He prefers focusing on how his players can do better, rather than trying to focus on the weaknesses of the opponent, which is definitely not 'modern'. This has been slowly changing the past few seasons however. That being said, I'm definitely no #WOB just in…

It's sorta weird to chat about Arsenal here... I do agree with your above points, but he has his football (sorry American) philosophy which not most fans understand. The past decade, he cut his spending to just build a new stadium for Arsenal, budget is tight, so what to do? Bring in the new blood, and the hard data + analytics help! I'm hoping to see he can also bring in some data-driven approach on his on-field tac…

If by football philosophy you mean "the thing about Arsenal is...", skc got it right I think because 15 years ago he was definitely considered 'progressive' or 'modern'. But now I think he's considered "a stubborn old man" because of a "lack of a plan B...". (Of course, past few seasons that "lack of plan B" criticism is not really relevant anymore, but you probably know what I mean.)

About football the sport, I've always seen him as 'progressive' because for example he has always advocated for video replay technology to be used, goal-line technology to be used etc. And so it's definitely possible that he's not afraid of using all the technological help he can for coaching.

It's just that he has rejected using 'technology' to help his coaching in the past. By which I'm referring specifically about him not using video replays of how his opponents play to coach his players with (which has since changed). But I think that is more the case of just not being part of his coaching philosophy, rather than not wanting to use 'technology' or something.

Re: Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

#25
post #2

Never thought I'd see an article about Arsenal here. The "secret" purchase has been talked about for quite some time now. We'll see if it pays off. In the mean time, while we wait, Manchester United has spent a king's ransom on a teenager and so far it's looking like a great bet (yes, I know it's early still). I'm a strong believer in analytics in basketball and baseball but I wonder if in some sports, like soccer, i…

I think it's fair to say Arsene's ability to buy bargain players has died up. Gone are the days of Henry/Viera/Van Percy coming in as mediocre players only to be indispensable a season later.

I think if you look at some of the more recent meteoric rises, they all seems to come from lesser leagues or clubs, BVB/Juventus/Atlético Madrid/Porto, and to some extent Liverpool/Spurs (Bale/Suarez/Sterling/Coutinho/Kane).

I think signing a player with potential is only part of the issue, the key is playing, developing and nurturing them. With teams like BVB/Juventus/Atlético Madrid/Porto they are either in easier leagues where a player doesn't have to be the finished article to excel, or financially constrained to not be able to purchase the finished article. With Spurs and Liverpool they fall into the later category so are forced to give youth players a chance.

Take Kevin De Bruyne as an example, an obvious talent purchased by Chelsea, but not played because he wasn't quite finished (perhaps only in reputation rather than ability). Sold to play in a lesser league where he excelled, and then purchased for 50 million where his stature and starting place are then almost granted.

These days I think Arsene is stuck in a position where he has the money to spend, but ideally want's to return to his roots of nurturing young players. However the fans and board aren't willing to gamble on youth, in favor of signing 40/50 million finished articles.

A few million on an analytic company isn't going to break the bank, and may be more valuable in opposition analysis than finding the next rough diamond.

Re: Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

#26
post #4

As sports are now much more data driven, is there any other analytics are doing similar? In this case of Arsenal, they purchased it for "scouting" purpose. I would also love to see if some sport clubs can leverage the data and make sport management as a predictable science.

Opta certainly hope so. They have, and licence access to, a colossal amount of sports data and I imagine clubs that don't have the resources to generate/collect their own will probably use a service like theirs.

http://www.optasports.com/

http://www.optasportspro.com/about/optapro-blog/posts/2015/b...

Re: Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

#27
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Related question from a non-sports person, about those 'bargain' prices. How long does it take for a player to become legendary, and when does their price catch up? Is the contract a bargain because it locks-in the unknown player at a below-market price even after they become legendary? Or is it a bargain because the contract lasts a season or two and establishes the player's skill, after which they have inertia on t…

It's incredibly random in football when it comes to assigning value to players, at least in Europe. Take the example of James Rodríguez[1], a young Colombian player. His "value" suddenly skyrocketed[2] when he scored this wonder goal[3] in the 2014 World cup. Next thing, Real Madrid snapped him up for €80million, the decision at least partially influenced by Real's "Galaticos"[4] transfer policy, and the fact that Re…

- Injury risk

- Country of origin (home grown player quotas, visas, participation in national team (especially African cup of nations that occurs mid season).

- Attractiveness (something Madrid apparently value as part of their brand, and marketability)

- Mentality (Mario...)

- Position (typically higher the further up the pitch they play)

- Previous contract value. A number of players signed by big clubs then released are on high wages, and expect they to be met.

- time left on contract (shorter time means higher wage demands)

Re: Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

#28
post #14
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Arsenal news on this page. Wow. "StatDNA’s database is now Arsenal’s database, so if Wenger wants to sign a defender, who is, say, 6ft 4in, an excellent reader of the game and an accurate passer, one push of a button will bring up the best options in world football." Interesting and Arsenal need a few.

i found that quote a bit funny. i was hoping that something like this system would be far more useful than that. i mean, football manager (the game) has been used for that purpose for ages now. also, i don't believe that a system like this one is new. i can't find the source, but sometime ago i read SAP's owner (founder?) had a system much like this one built for the german national team.

Teams have been using game databases for years as a scouting tool: http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/everton-signs-football-man...

Re: Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

#29
The owner of SmartOdds betting company, Matthew Benham is applying his company's statistical insights to the clubs he owns. This has proven quite successful. Great to see Arsenal doing the same. http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/jul/27/how-fc-midtj...

Re: Arsenal’s ‘secret’ signing: club buys £2m revolutionary data company

#30
There's still lots of great football stats work being done out in the open, at http://statsbomb.com/ for example. One of the founders of StatsBomb, Ted Knutson, went on to be hired by Matthew Benham to do player analytics for his two clubs. There hasn't yet been the sudden land grab that there was in ice hockey where all the best analytics bloggers got hired and silenced pretty much overnight, but clubs are getting far better at this stuff.

Between Opta's human-based on-the-ball event tracking, and TRACAB's computer vision player tracking solutions that they provide to the Premier League, there's a bunch of interesting computer science and business going on around this stuff.

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